ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Serive forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[psyclone]

That track (and the resultant warning area) is good deal more westward than I envisioned. this will be interesting to watch unfold.

[northjaxpro]

One thing of particular interest in the advisory I noticed is that NHC is urging interests from Northeast Florida to the Carolinas to monitor closely this cyclone.

It is anticiapted that TD 3/Colin will emerge off the coast of Northeast Florida by early Tuesday. The thinking was that it would get merged with the front associated with the upper trough and the system eventually transitioning to extra-tropical.

It is possible new watches or warnings may get posted by NHC for the areas mentioned above in the next 24 hours. There may be a brief window early Tuesday and a chance that Colin could retain tropical characteristics to regenerate off the SE Atlantic coast before transitioning. Just a thought.

[alienstorm]

Looking at the visible this morning you can see the center that the NHC is tracking, however, if you look out to the east you can see that there is a MLC located under the deep convention. Now the question becomes can the LLC reform or migrate under the MLC, that will be answered later when recon get there. Another point I want to make is the windshear looks to be less in the area of the depression as the anticyclone continues to build over it, as long as they stay in sync then there is potential for development. All these early system systems are very difficult to predict intensity so we will need to monitor today to see what happens.

[NDG]

Looking at the visible this morning you can see the center that the NHC is tracking, however, if you look out to the east you can see that there is a MLC located under the deep convention. Now the question becomes can the LLC reform or migrate under the MLC, that will be answered later when recon get there. Another point I want to make is the windshear looks to be less in the area of the depression as the anticyclone continues to build over it, as long as they stay in sync then there is potential for development. All these early system systems are very difficult to predict intensity so we will need to monitor today to see what happens.

I have been looking at the area where the MLC is located, it is not out of question that we may see a more pronounced LLC develop close to it. Cancun's winds still remain calm this morning, telling me that it is a good possibility of reformation off of the NE tip of the YP.

[AdamFirst]

I don't see the center on the NASA live floater. I did only wake up about 20 minutes ago ( ) so maybe my eyes aren't so good right now, but I don't see any distinct spin on the visible, unless I'm overlooking it.

[johngaltfla]

Looking at the visible this morning you can see the center that the NHC is tracking, however, if you look out to the east you can see that there is a MLC located under the deep convention. Now the question becomes can the LLC reform or migrate under the MLC, that will be answered later when recon get there. Another point I want to make is the windshear looks to be less in the area of the depression as the anticyclone continues to build over it, as long as they stay in sync then there is potential for development. All these early system systems are very difficult to predict intensity so we will need to monitor today to see what happens.

I have been looking at the area where the MLC is located, it is not out of question that we may see a more pronounced LLC develop close to it. Cancun's winds still remain calm this morning, telling me that it is a good possibility of reformation off of the NE tip of the YP.

Until recon gets in there, we will not know but I see the same thing so thanks to both of you for verifying that my eyes were not going nuts. I think you're correct and if anything it will align better as shear relaxes this afternoon.

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS output has shear increasing, not relaxing though.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 051533
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20160605
152400 3024N 08855W 0110 ///// 0099 +315 +236 000000 000 /// /// 23
152430 3024N 08855W 0110 ///// 0099 +315 +235 000000 000 /// /// 23
152500 3024N 08855W 0110 ///// 0099 +315 +239 000000 000 /// /// 23
152530 3024N 08855W 0110 00001 0112 +315 +240 000000 000 /// /// 03
152600 3024N 08855W 0110 00003 0112 +315 +243 000000 000 /// /// 03
152630 3024N 08855W 0110 00005 0116 +315 +245 000000 000 /// /// 03
152700 3024N 08855W 0112 00003 0118 +315 +246 000000 000 /// /// 03
152730 3024N 08855W 0112 00001 0115 +317 +248 000000 000 /// /// 03
152800 3024N 08855W 0112 00006 0120 +319 +250 000000 000 /// /// 03
152830 3024N 08855W 0112 00005 0118 +320 +252 000000 000 /// /// 03
152900 3024N 08855W 0112 ///// 0113 +320 +253 000000 000 /// /// 23
152930 3024N 08855W 0112 00011 0122 +320 +256 000000 000 /// /// 03
153000 3024N 08855W 0112 00022 0132 +320 +257 000000 000 /// /// 03
153030 3024N 08855W 0112 00003 0118 +320 +250 000000 000 /// /// 03
153100 3024N 08855W 0112 00011 0128 +320 +239 000000 000 /// /// 03
153130 3024N 08855W 0112 00008 0122 +320 +235 000000 000 /// /// 03
153200 3024N 08855W 0112 00007 0119 +320 +232 000000 000 /// /// 03
153230 3024N 08855W 0112 ///// 0101 +320 +234 000000 000 /// /// 23
153300 3024N 08855W 0112 ///// 0100 +320 +233 000000 000 /// /// 23
153330 3024N 08855W 0112 ///// 0108 +320 +230 000000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

Plane is on the tarmac.

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: SHIPS output has shear increasing, not relaxing though.

Shear is going to be ripping across the Gulf of Mexico and we seen that even moderate shear can harm a system just a little over a week ago. Bonnie anyone? I personally think it will struggle to gain a name unless it relocates the center to the deepest convection.

[AdamFirst]

It begins...this is the first squall line approaching the SW Florida coast.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1131 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

FLZ069-070-075-051630-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-
1131 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLLIER AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

* AT 1130 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. JAMES CITY TO
NEAR BELLE MEADE TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHWEST CAPE SABLE...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NAPLES...MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...CHOKOLOSKEE...
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...VINEYARDS...
WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...NAPLES MANOR...
PLANTATION ISLAND...MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...COPELAND...
NAPLES PARK...EAST NAPLES...CARNESTOWN...BELLE MEADE...
NORTH NAPLES...GOLDEN GATE...LELY RESORT...
CAPE ROMANO AND ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK.

[Steve]

That track (and the resultant warning area) is good deal more westward than I envisioned. this will be interesting to watch unfold.

Agreed. On Thursday it looked like it would come in farther south with most of the weather clustered around the current model consensus. But if the associated weather is east and south of the "landfall" then some of that weather is likely to affect areas in central FL below who I thought would see most of it (Ocala, Gainseville, Flagler County) and probably some of the Orlando metro could see more rain and winds (Lake and Orange Counties particularly). None the less, GFS has done fairly well as has the Euro. I'd still be surprised if it came in as far west as Cross City or Perry (Dixie and Taylor Counties), but I guess that's still possible.

I think people were getting hung up on a center reformation yesterday evening based on IR. That's a risky proposition. LLC is clearly north of the Yucatan and was properly identified by the NHC. It's certainly possible that the center could reform a few times closer to the convection, but it's at least equal chances that the center just follows the way out and comes farther west (toward the upper big bend). 48 hours or so and we will have the second US landfall of the season. Y'all be careful driving as we lost 9 soldiers this week in Texas to flash flooding and flood waters. Also, for anyone going surfing, be careful. Rips should be all up along the coast.

This post is not official. Please refer to local NWS and the NHC for official information.

[tailgater]

I think if anything the ULL/trough over TX/MX is starting to help the system ventilate it, yes, there is shear but not that destructive.IMO.
There's some expansion now of the high cloud tops westward.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... dn4ctc.gif

Nice obs there NDG, while the warmest cloud tops are cooling they are expanding westward and somewhat in the lower levels.
Mid level shear probably a little more important at this point.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051543
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20160605
153400 3024N 08855W 0111 00002 0116 +320 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
153430 3024N 08855W 0112 00008 0122 +320 +227 000000 000 /// /// 03
153500 3024N 08855W 0112 00013 0127 +325 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
153530 3024N 08855W 0112 00012 0127 +325 +230 000000 000 /// /// 03
153600 3024N 08855W 0112 00019 0133 +325 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
153630 3024N 08855W 0112 00018 0133 +327 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
153700 3024N 08855W 0109 00014 0126 +326 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
153730 3024N 08855W 0107 00013 0124 +289 +231 000000 000 /// /// 03
153800 3024N 08855W 0113 00014 0128 +275 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
153830 3024N 08855W 0113 00013 0128 +270 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
153900 3024N 08855W 0112 00012 0127 +283 +230 000000 000 /// /// 03
153930 3024N 08855W 0113 00013 0128 +275 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
154000 3025N 08855W 0113 00013 0129 +247 +224 000000 000 /// /// 03
154030 3025N 08855W 0113 00013 0129 +247 +223 000000 000 /// /// 03
154100 3025N 08855W 0113 00012 0129 +253 +221 000000 000 /// /// 03
154130 3025N 08855W 0114 00012 0129 +259 +221 000000 000 /// /// 03
154200 3025N 08855W 0114 00012 0127 +254 +224 000000 000 /// /// 03
154230 3025N 08855W 0113 00012 0127 +264 +227 000000 000 /// /// 03
154300 3025N 08855W 0108 00012 0125 +255 +226 000000 000 /// /// 03
154330 3025N 08855W 0111 00010 0123 +264 +226 000000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051553
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20160605
154400 3025N 08855W 0114 00011 0127 +242 +223 000000 000 /// /// 03
154430 3025N 08855W 0108 00012 0123 +238 +223 140004 006 /// /// 03
154500 3024N 08856W 9987 00102 0110 +243 +217 149009 010 /// /// 03
154530 3023N 08857W 9761 00306 0112 +222 +213 142009 009 /// /// 03
154600 3022N 08858W 9450 00589 //// +199 //// 161006 009 /// /// 05
154630 3021N 08859W 9176 00842 0110 +186 +177 203009 010 /// /// 05
154700 3019N 08900W 8800 01200 0106 +171 +156 201010 011 /// /// 03
154730 3018N 08901W 8427 01564 0105 +151 +140 220013 015 /// /// 03
154800 3017N 08902W 8184 01826 0113 +139 +117 224016 016 /// /// 03
154830 3015N 08903W 7867 02149 0104 +129 +086 197017 018 /// /// 03
154900 3014N 08904W 7644 02411 0113 +119 +069 184015 016 /// /// 03
154930 3012N 08905W 7404 02676 0114 +101 +059 183013 015 /// /// 03
155000 3011N 08906W 7158 02953 0110 +085 +051 205018 019 /// /// 03
155030 3009N 08907W 6951 03199 0108 +073 +041 218017 018 005 000 03
155100 3008N 08908W 6774 03413 0102 +065 +036 227017 019 003 000 03
155130 3006N 08909W 6559 03676 0100 +051 +028 222018 019 /// /// 03
155200 3005N 08910W 6409 03870 0105 +035 +021 222016 017 /// /// 03
155230 3003N 08911W 6248 04074 0097 +027 +007 227017 018 009 000 03
155300 3001N 08912W 6073 04305 0093 +020 -037 227018 020 008 000 00
155330 3000N 08913W 5949 04465 0084 +013 -081 237020 021 020 000 03
$$
;

Takeoff.

[TheAustinMan]

Hurricane Research Division Operations
Link

Sunday, 5 June 2016

G-IV: Is scheduled to fly a “TC in shear” research mission over AL93. Take off is scheduled for 1800 UTC (2:00PM) from MacDill Air Force Base, Tampa, FL. No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Monday, 6 June 2016

G-IV: Is scheduled to fly a “TC in shear” research mission over AL93. Take off is scheduled for 0600 UTC (2:00AM) from MacDill Air Force Base, Tampa, FL. No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

G-IV: Is tentatively scheduled to fly a “TC in shear” research mission over AL93. Take off is scheduled for 1800 UTC (2:00PM) from MacDill Air Force Base, Tampa, FL. No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

[SeGaBob]

Normally we'd get rain from a track like the NHC has, but I'm not sure what the system will look like at that point.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051603
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 04 20160605
155400 2958N 08914W 5824 04640 0090 +001 -112 245020 020 007 000 03
155430 2957N 08915W 5687 04830 0080 -009 -063 244022 022 /// /// 03
155500 2955N 08916W 5551 05022 0074 -019 -049 230024 026 /// /// 03
155530 2953N 08917W 5435 05192 0239 -035 -047 231027 028 007 000 03
155600 2952N 08919W 5329 05350 0249 -039 -058 230029 031 027 000 03
155630 2950N 08920W 5207 05532 0257 -042 -078 226031 032 027 000 03
155700 2949N 08921W 5078 05726 0268 -054 -104 229030 031 /// /// 03
155730 2947N 08922W 4986 05874 0281 -066 -136 232030 030 /// /// 03
155800 2945N 08923W 4923 05974 0287 -067 -165 232028 029 /// /// 03
155830 2944N 08924W 4834 06113 0293 -074 -148 231030 030 007 000 03
155900 2942N 08925W 4767 06225 0301 -085 -151 233030 031 034 000 03
155930 2941N 08926W 4686 06355 0307 -091 -168 235032 032 022 000 03
160000 2939N 08927W 4612 06478 0316 -103 -154 236033 034 023 000 03
160030 2937N 08928W 4547 06593 0327 -113 -141 235032 033 /// /// 03
160100 2936N 08929W 4480 06704 0331 -120 -134 231031 032 /// /// 03
160130 2934N 08930W 4421 06806 0337 -128 -138 229030 031 /// /// 03
160200 2933N 08931W 4382 06875 0341 -131 -144 228026 028 /// /// 03
160230 2931N 08932W 4316 06988 0346 -136 -147 228029 033 /// /// 03
160300 2929N 08933W 4245 07115 0355 -144 -149 229033 034 /// /// 03
160330 2927N 08933W 4183 07224 0361 -144 -158 226036 038 076 001 03
$$
;

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the southern end of the front might be going stationary. It does not appear to be progressing that far east anymore. Might be why the models for TD 3 have shifted further north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/avn-animated.gif

[nativefloridian]

Could someone explain why it now looks like there's two balls of deep convection forming. Thanks!




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