ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Normally we'd get rain from a track like the NHC has, but I'm not sure what the system will look like at that point.

NAM simulated radar 12z gets S/SE GA a combination of energy from the northern semi-circle and front. Looks like at least some gusty winds and heavy rain in that run.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: SHIPS output has shear increasing, not relaxing though.

Shear is going to be ripping across the Gulf of Mexico and we seen that even moderate shear can harm a system just a little over a week ago. Bonnie anyone? I personally think it will struggle to gain a name unless it relocates the center to the deepest convection.

It should earn a name, as we have Recon, just be very messy, much like Andrea 13, Debby 12, and Arlene 05.

[Steve]

Could someone explain why it now looks like there's two balls of deep convection forming. Thanks!




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EDIT POST

Looks like feeder moisture interacting with a low level surge for the enhancement SE of the circulation and mid level energy.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051613
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 05 20160605
160400 2925N 08934W 4144 07300 0366 -146 -163 223032 036 /// /// 03
160430 2923N 08935W 4094 07391 0372 -152 -165 219030 031 /// /// 03
160500 2922N 08936W 4041 07488 0377 -159 -170 211029 030 /// /// 03
160530 2920N 08936W 3993 07579 0383 -164 -171 204031 032 /// /// 03
160600 2918N 08937W 3947 07667 0389 -169 -174 198033 033 /// /// 03
160630 2916N 08938W 3927 07708 0394 -175 -176 198033 034 031 000 05
160700 2915N 08939W 3926 07710 0396 -175 -180 198035 036 007 000 03
160730 2913N 08939W 3927 07709 0397 -175 -180 201036 036 004 000 03
160800 2911N 08940W 3930 07707 0398 -171 -185 206036 036 006 000 03
160830 2909N 08941W 3931 07704 0399 -175 -183 210035 035 007 000 03
160900 2907N 08942W 3931 07705 0399 -172 -185 208036 037 006 000 00
160930 2904N 08943W 3933 07702 0400 -170 -183 210038 039 008 000 00
161000 2902N 08944W 3933 07703 0400 -170 -179 210041 042 008 000 03
161030 2900N 08945W 3931 07707 0400 -172 -176 212041 042 008 000 00
161100 2858N 08945W 3931 07705 0400 -175 //// 215040 041 009 000 05
161130 2856N 08946W 3933 07704 0401 -175 //// 219038 039 008 000 01
161200 2854N 08947W 3933 07704 0402 -175 //// 216038 038 007 000 01
161230 2852N 08948W 3931 07705 0399 -175 //// 207034 037 010 000 05
161300 2850N 08949W 3926 07711 0391 -176 //// 203034 034 010 000 05
161330 2848N 08950W 3926 07712 0397 -175 //// 207032 033 008 000 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 051623
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 06 20160605
161400 2846N 08951W 3926 07713 0391 -175 //// 210032 033 011 000 01
161430 2844N 08951W 3926 07699 0383 -175 //// 206033 033 009 000 01
161500 2842N 08952W 3925 07699 0382 -175 //// 203032 033 009 000 01
161530 2840N 08953W 3927 07698 0384 -175 //// 203034 035 010 000 01
161600 2837N 08954W 3925 07700 0384 -175 //// 206036 036 011 000 05
161630 2835N 08955W 3927 07697 0384 -175 -192 209038 038 012 000 00
161700 2833N 08956W 3926 07700 0384 -175 -194 207037 038 013 000 03
161730 2831N 08957W 3926 07700 0384 -175 -190 205037 037 014 000 00
161800 2829N 08957W 3926 07700 0385 -172 -192 211035 037 014 000 00
161830 2827N 08958W 3926 07701 0385 -171 -198 214034 035 015 000 00
161900 2825N 08959W 3926 07699 0385 -172 -196 217034 034 013 000 00
161930 2823N 09000W 3926 07702 0385 -170 -197 220033 034 013 000 00
162000 2821N 09001W 3926 07700 0386 -172 -185 219034 034 014 000 03
162030 2819N 09002W 3927 07700 0387 -170 -197 219036 037 013 000 00
162100 2817N 09003W 3926 07702 0386 -170 -202 218035 036 014 000 03
162130 2814N 09003W 3926 07702 0386 -170 -209 219034 035 013 000 00
162200 2812N 09003W 3927 07701 0387 -172 -193 218033 033 014 000 00
162230 2810N 09003W 3926 07701 0386 -175 -190 219032 033 017 000 00
162300 2807N 09003W 3926 07700 0385 -175 -197 219031 031 017 000 00
162330 2805N 09003W 3926 07698 0385 -174 -196 218031 031 014 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Looks like the southern end of the front might be going stationary. It does not appear to be progressing that far east anymore. Might be why the models for TD 3 have shifted further north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/avn-animated.gif

Yes, the trough is not coming down as far south as earlier forecasted by the models, thus the more northerly track.

[RL3AO]

These were the images used to initiate advisories. There was an west/east band of low level clouds off the north coast of the Yucatan that appeared to be rotating on the southern edge of the circulation. To be honest, I'd be happy if recon can find a west wind above 10 mph out there.

[Evil Jeremy]

Vorticity continues to consolidate at the midpoint between Cancun and Cuba. Logically, the LLC and vorticity should align at some point. I see broad rotation within that massive convection band, but it's about as ill-defined as what the NHC is currently designating the center. I hope recon visits both areas of focus this afternoon.

What time this afternoon is Recon expected to enter TD3?

[northjaxpro]

A look at the 850 mb level vorticity shows great concentration just off the Northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and just north of the Yucatan Channel.

[ronjon]

This low will definitely be classified as tropical storm. Big broad circulation and mass of weather. Already 1005 mb and globals slowly take it down to at 1002 mb. HWRF drops it to 999 mb by landfall. I doubt the center will ever have a CDO around it. It will stay broad and slowly deepen with all the heavy squalls on the east side. But the heavy weather might extend 200-300 miles from its center to the east - so a very large system.

[northjaxpro]

Vorticity continues to consolidate at the midpoint between Cancun and Cuba. Logically, the LLC and vorticity should align at some point. I see broad rotation within that massive convection band, but it's about as ill-defined as what the NHC is currently designating the center. I hope recon visits both areas of focus this afternoon.

What time this afternoon is Recon expected to enter TD3?

Recon is currently in route from Keesler AFB. They should get in the system by 1:30 - 2 p.m. this afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051633
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 07 20160605
162400 2803N 09002W 3925 07703 0385 -175 -188 216030 030 014 000 03
162430 2800N 09002W 3927 07697 0385 -175 -191 219031 032 014 000 00
162500 2758N 09002W 3926 07701 0391 -173 -191 219032 032 011 000 00
162530 2756N 09002W 3927 07708 0391 -172 -197 219031 032 011 000 00
162600 2754N 09002W 3926 07698 0385 -175 -183 217028 029 011 000 00
162630 2751N 09002W 3923 07704 0385 -175 -190 218028 029 012 000 00
162700 2749N 09002W 3926 07701 0385 -171 -192 218027 029 014 000 00
162730 2747N 09002W 3927 07699 0386 -171 -183 219026 027 014 000 00
162800 2744N 09001W 3926 07702 0385 -170 -205 224027 028 015 000 00
162830 2742N 09001W 3926 07699 0385 -171 -197 226027 028 016 000 00
162900 2740N 09001W 3927 07698 0385 -173 -196 227026 027 017 001 00
162930 2737N 09001W 3926 07701 0384 -172 -187 224024 026 019 002 00
163000 2735N 09001W 3926 07699 0384 -171 -183 223023 025 018 002 00
163030 2732N 09001W 3926 07699 0384 -170 -196 226022 022 015 000 00
163100 2730N 09001W 3926 07700 0385 -170 -195 231021 022 015 000 00
163130 2728N 09000W 3927 07698 0385 -170 -191 231020 021 013 001 00
163200 2725N 09000W 3926 07700 0384 -170 -193 231020 021 013 000 00
163230 2723N 09000W 3926 07700 0385 -170 -193 230024 025 011 000 00
163300 2720N 09000W 3926 07699 0384 -170 -198 231024 025 011 000 00
163330 2718N 09000W 3927 07698 0384 -170 -189 233023 023 013 000 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

I always like the NEXSAT sat loop:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[wxman57]

Normally we'd get rain from a track like the NHC has, but I'm not sure what the system will look like at that point.

This is going to be a sheared tropical storm. Most of the squalls will be right of the track. May not get much in Georgia even if the center skirts the coast. Don't focus on the center or track with this storm, follow the large area of convection east and southeast of the center. That's where the bad weather will be.

[Evil Jeremy]

Vorticity continues to consolidate at the midpoint between Cancun and Cuba. Logically, the LLC and vorticity should align at some point. I see broad rotation within that massive convection band, but it's about as ill-defined as what the NHC is currently designating the center. I hope recon visits both areas of focus this afternoon.

What time this afternoon is Recon expected to enter TD3?

Recon is currently in route from Keesler AFB. They should get in the system by 1:30 - 2 p.m. this afternoon.

Perfect. My overpriced Cruise internet package expires at 3:30, so I should get some good data first.

[cycloneye]

[tropicwatch]

Observations on Yucatan appear to support west wind component.

http://wxug.us/1uumh

[NDG]

These were the images used to initiate advisories. There was an west/east band of low level clouds off the north coast of the Yucatan that appeared to be rotating on the southern edge of the circulation. To be honest, I'd be happy if recon can find a west wind above 10 mph out there.

Cancun now reporting WSW winds 7, gusting to 10.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051643
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 08 20160605
163400 2716N 09000W 3927 07697 0384 -170 -192 231024 025 013 000 00
163430 2713N 09000W 3926 07700 0384 -170 -185 228021 023 014 000 03
163500 2711N 08959W 3926 07698 0384 -170 -182 223021 023 013 000 00
163530 2709N 08959W 3925 07700 0383 -170 -183 225020 022 013 000 00
163600 2706N 08959W 3926 07698 0382 -170 -183 228021 022 015 000 00
163630 2704N 08959W 3926 07699 0383 -170 -184 240024 025 014 000 00
163700 2701N 08959W 3926 07703 0388 -171 -187 239027 027 015 000 00
163730 2659N 08959W 3926 07706 0390 -170 -180 236024 027 015 000 00
163800 2657N 08959W 3926 07705 0391 -170 -185 236023 024 015 000 00
163830 2654N 08958W 3926 07707 0392 -170 -184 236025 026 015 000 00
163900 2652N 08958W 3926 07706 0391 -169 -185 232028 029 014 000 00
163930 2649N 08958W 3926 07707 0391 -170 -182 229026 027 016 000 00
164000 2647N 08958W 3926 07706 0391 -166 -178 231027 027 015 000 00
164030 2645N 08958W 3926 07706 0391 -169 -183 229027 027 017 000 00
164100 2642N 08958W 3926 07707 0391 -169 -174 225027 027 017 000 01
164130 2640N 08958W 3926 07706 0391 -168 -182 225027 027 016 000 00
164200 2638N 08958W 3926 07706 0391 -166 -176 225027 027 017 000 00
164230 2635N 08957W 3926 07705 0391 -166 -181 228026 027 016 000 00
164300 2633N 08957W 3926 07706 0391 -165 -176 220023 025 016 000 00
164330 2630N 08957W 3926 07706 0391 -165 -180 217023 023 017 000 00
$$
;

[TheAustinMan]

Cancun now reporting WSW winds 7, gusting to 10.

Current surface observations support NHC's center placement for Tropical Depression Three. Hopefully recon will help to definitively locate the center of circulation. There may also be a center reformation, as is typical for storms of this variety.