ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 051653
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 09 20160605
164400 2628N 08957W 3926 07707 0392 -165 -177 222021 022 017 000 00
164430 2626N 08957W 3925 07710 0392 -166 -179 227024 024 017 000 00
164500 2623N 08957W 3927 07706 0392 -165 -176 229027 029 017 000 00
164530 2621N 08957W 3926 07707 0392 -165 -176 228026 029 018 000 00
164600 2619N 08956W 3926 07707 0392 -165 -177 224025 025 017 000 00
164630 2616N 08956W 3926 07707 0392 -165 -178 218023 025 018 000 00
164700 2614N 08956W 3926 07708 0393 -165 -182 221022 023 018 000 00
164730 2611N 08956W 3926 07709 0394 -163 -180 229024 025 019 000 00
164800 2609N 08956W 3927 07708 0394 -164 -170 227028 030 018 000 00
164830 2607N 08956W 3925 07711 0394 -165 -170 229029 030 018 000 00
164900 2604N 08956W 3926 07711 0394 -167 -173 229026 028 018 000 00
164930 2602N 08956W 3926 07709 0394 -169 //// 229025 026 018 000 01
165000 2600N 08955W 3926 07711 0394 -166 -173 227024 025 018 000 00
165030 2557N 08955W 3924 07712 0395 -164 -178 225024 025 019 000 00
165100 2555N 08955W 3922 07715 0394 -163 -175 235027 029 017 000 00
165130 2552N 08955W 3927 07708 0395 -160 -194 237028 029 019 000 00
165200 2550N 08955W 3925 07713 0395 -160 -193 239026 027 020 000 00
165230 2548N 08955W 3925 07714 0396 -161 -191 238023 025 020 000 00
165300 2545N 08955W 3928 07709 0396 -162 -177 230023 023 019 000 00
165330 2543N 08954W 3924 07716 0396 -160 -183 228024 025 019 000 00
$$
;

[SeGaBob]

Normally we'd get rain from a track like the NHC has, but I'm not sure what the system will look like at that point.

This is going to be a sheared tropical storm. Most of the squalls will be right of the track. May not get much in Georgia even if the center skirts the coast. Don't focus on the center or track with this storm, follow the large area of convection east and southeast of the center. That's where the bad weather will be.

Yeah that's sort of what I was thinking, but NWS seems bullish about our chances though. Thanks for the reply.

[AdamFirst]

That Navy satellite loop (excellent loop, by the way) shows a distinct turn in the clouds just off to the northeast of the Yucatan. Is that mid-level? Anyone else seeing that?

[tarheelprogrammer]

That Navy satellite loop (excellent loop, by the way) shows a distinct turn in the clouds just off to the northeast of the Yucatan. Is that mid-level? Anyone else seeing that?

http://i.imgur.com/DsTbrS2.png

I see it and not sure which level.

[BobHarlem]

Are those bands of rain going through Naples and Tampa part of this system. long term radar with track here http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?201

[cycloneye]

[AdamFirst]

Are those bands of rain going through Naples and Tampa part of this system. long term radar with track here http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?201

They are. It's the very edge of it.

[RL3AO]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/VSXeHw5.gif[]

These were the images used to initiate advisories. There was an west/east band of low level clouds off the north coast of the Yucatan that appeared to be rotating on the southern edge of the circulation. To be honest, I'd be happy if recon can find a west wind above 10 mph out there.

Cancun now reporting WSW winds 7, gusting to 10.

Yep. Although it's possible that is more mesoscale (e.g. Inflow into the offshore convection.)

[northjaxpro]

Are those bands of rain going through Naples and Tampa part of this system. long term radar with track here http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?201

Yes, the first band has passed through the Naples area, which NWS WFO in Ruskin issued a special statement on within the past hour That band may have had gusts over 30 mph and a burst of heavy rain as it passed through that area.

[RL3AO]

The big picture is kinda interesting to me. You can see the strong SW flow across the eastern Pacific and GOM but it also means plenty of moisture as well.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051703
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 10 20160605
165400 2540N 08954W 3927 07708 0395 -163 -176 225024 025 018 000 00
165430 2538N 08954W 3925 07713 0395 -159 -182 232025 025 019 000 00
165500 2536N 08954W 3926 07709 0395 -158 -185 234025 026 020 000 00
165530 2533N 08954W 3926 07709 0395 -160 -181 234025 026 019 000 00
165600 2531N 08954W 3926 07711 0396 -161 -176 230025 025 019 000 00
165630 2529N 08954W 3926 07711 0396 -162 -202 227024 025 019 000 00
165700 2526N 08954W 3925 07714 0397 -166 -208 226023 025 020 000 00
165730 2524N 08953W 3926 07713 0396 -164 -174 219025 027 019 000 00
165800 2521N 08953W 3925 07713 0396 -162 -181 217029 030 021 000 00
165830 2519N 08953W 3926 07710 0396 -160 -180 217032 032 020 000 00
165900 2517N 08953W 3926 07711 0395 -158 -178 218032 034 020 000 00
165930 2515N 08953W 3926 07710 0395 -157 -181 213032 032 022 000 00
170000 2512N 08953W 3927 07708 0395 -156 -181 207035 036 022 000 00
170030 2510N 08953W 3925 07711 0394 -157 -175 207032 035 023 000 03
170100 2508N 08953W 3926 07711 0395 -155 -179 209032 032 024 000 00
170130 2505N 08952W 3926 07712 0396 -155 -182 210032 032 024 000 00
170200 2503N 08952W 3925 07714 0396 -158 -181 207032 033 024 000 00
170230 2501N 08952W 3926 07711 0396 -157 -183 204031 032 024 000 00
170300 2459N 08952W 3926 07711 0396 -152 -180 209031 032 024 000 00
170330 2456N 08952W 3926 07711 0397 -155 -199 216033 033 026 000 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

Cancun now reporting WSW winds 7, gusting to 10.

Current surface observations support NHC's center placement for Tropical Depression Three. Hopefully recon will help to definitively locate the center of circulation. There may also be a center reformation, as is typical for storms of this variety.

http://i.imgur.com/JTjsRPe.png

you see forming in other area?

[tropicwatch]

A weather station in Cancun is reporting a pressure of 1002mb.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A weather station in Cancun is reporting a pressure of 1002mb.

Seems it may be reforming to that location if obs are true.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 051713
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 11 20160605
170400 2454N 08952W 3927 07711 0397 -160 -186 204030 032 026 000 00
170430 2452N 08952W 3929 07709 0397 -161 -207 187030 031 026 000 00
170500 2449N 08952W 3926 07714 0397 -161 -268 188030 031 027 000 00
170530 2447N 08951W 3927 07709 0396 -158 -230 190029 031 028 000 00
170600 2445N 08951W 3925 07712 0396 -159 -181 196030 032 028 000 00
170630 2443N 08951W 3927 07709 0396 -159 -217 198031 032 028 000 00
170700 2440N 08951W 3925 07713 0397 -158 -181 198030 033 028 000 00
170730 2438N 08951W 3928 07709 0397 -157 -206 200027 030 028 000 00
170800 2436N 08951W 3926 07713 0397 -155 -198 198022 024 030 000 00
170830 2433N 08951W 3926 07711 0396 -153 -226 200024 025 033 001 00
170900 2431N 08950W 3925 07711 0396 -154 -210 203026 026 033 003 00
170930 2429N 08950W 3927 07710 0397 -158 -188 203026 026 033 001 00
171000 2426N 08951W 3926 07715 0398 -155 -299 205026 027 030 000 00
171030 2424N 08951W 3926 07713 0398 -151 -263 208026 027 031 000 00
171100 2422N 08952W 3926 07713 0398 -151 -259 209026 027 031 000 00
171130 2420N 08952W 3927 07711 0399 -150 -279 214026 026 031 000 00
171200 2417N 08952W 3926 07714 0400 -150 -269 212024 025 031 000 00
171230 2415N 08953W 3925 07716 0399 -151 -277 214024 025 030 000 00
171300 2413N 08953W 3927 07712 0399 -152 -279 212025 026 028 000 00
171330 2410N 08953W 3926 07716 0399 -153 -253 212024 025 029 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[psyclone]

I would imagine a center reformation is going to be a tall order. the center is big. Forget naked swirl this is full scale naked gyre. perhaps the naked gyre can be tugged toward the convection...if so the net effect would be the same...a rightward track move. many times these systems wind up right of the initial tracks due to center reformations...or perhaps in this case...gyre tugs. we'll see. in the immediate future I have a rambunctious squall blasting right toward me from the bay. I'm expecting my first dose of sideways rain in mere minutes.

[Nimbus]

Another vortice in the channel where Cuba is pointing.
NHC has more data than we do with the mid level analysis.

[wxman57]

In order for the center to re-form, it first needs to be somewhat well-defined.

It really doesn't meet the standard definition of a depression just yet. The circulation is too poorly-defined and it lacks organized convection. After Bill last year, the NHC is being a bit more proactive in issuing advisories. They had planned to begin "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories (to the public) next season. They're testing them internally this year. I'll bet their advisory interface doesn't let them make an advisory unless they first call it a depression this season. Therefore, they decided to call this a TD a bit early so that they can issue a track and warnings early enough to give those in Florida a little heads-up before impact tomorrow. I'm only speculating, however.

In any case, it's not so important where the center of this system crosses Florida, as all significant weather will be south and east of the track. Tampa area could get 5-8" of rain tomorrow/Tuesday, along with tides 1-3ft above normal all along the west coast of Florida by tomorrow afternoon.

[RL3AO]

As for the storm surge threat, the extratropical storm surge model is showing areas of 4 to 5 feet above MSL which would mean minor coastal flooding. The tropical/P-surge guidance will probably be kept internal with this system. So probably 1 to 3' of surge N of Tampa and 1 to 2' south of Tampa, which is what the advisory has.

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