ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

I personally think the center has reformed to the east when looking at the last few frames of satellite.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051753
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20160605
174400 2232N 08933W 9665 00355 0063 +240 +236 338006 006 012 000 00
174430 2232N 08931W 9660 00361 0064 +240 +236 336007 007 013 000 01
174500 2232N 08929W 9664 00358 0064 +240 +236 334007 008 011 000 00
174530 2232N 08927W 9664 00359 0065 +240 +236 331007 007 011 000 01
174600 2232N 08926W 9664 00358 0065 +240 +237 333007 008 010 000 01
174630 2232N 08924W 9663 00359 0064 +240 +234 340007 008 010 000 00
174700 2232N 08922W 9660 00361 //// +239 //// 340008 008 010 000 01
174730 2232N 08921W 9667 00354 0064 +240 +237 345007 008 009 000 01
174800 2232N 08919W 9664 00358 0065 +240 +234 340004 005 010 000 00
174830 2232N 08917W 9665 00359 0066 +240 +236 341005 005 009 000 00
174900 2232N 08916W 9664 00361 0068 +240 +235 340006 006 009 000 00
174930 2232N 08914W 9664 00360 0068 +240 +232 340006 006 009 000 00
175000 2231N 08912W 9664 00361 0069 +240 +234 342005 006 008 000 00
175030 2231N 08910W 9663 00362 0070 +240 +235 339004 005 008 000 00
175100 2231N 08909W 9663 00362 0070 +240 +235 331004 004 007 000 01
175130 2231N 08907W 9664 00362 0070 +240 +235 333005 005 008 000 01
175200 2231N 08905W 9663 00362 //// +240 //// 336005 006 009 000 01
175230 2231N 08904W 9665 00361 0070 +240 +237 349003 004 008 000 01
175300 2231N 08902W 9662 00365 0070 +240 +236 328002 002 008 000 00
175330 2231N 08900W 9664 00361 0070 +240 +233 280001 002 007 000 00
$$
;

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the high resolution loop I placed the center at Latitude= 21.75° N Longitude= 86.32° W which is east of the center fix by NHC. Recon should be able to validate.

Not yet but I wouldn't be surprised if the LLC re-formed their. right now the LLC is much further NW and exposed if you ask me.

[RL3AO]

That satellite loop is interesting. That circulation is really wrapping up over the past hour or two. While I'm skeptical its at the surface, I'm curious to see what recon finds when it wanders over there.

[alienstorm]

You can clearly see there is some type of center east of the NHC location but recon will need to verify

[cycloneye]

[Evil Jeremy]

Given the slant of Florida's west coast, an eastward relocation, while not shifting the track south, would result in a more southern landfall point for the system in Florida. I can't imagine it lands any farther south than Tampa, but that would still bring more flooding potential into South Florida (I would imagine).

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051803
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20160605
175400 2231N 08859W 9663 00362 0070 +240 +234 306003 003 008 000 00
175430 2231N 08857W 9666 00361 //// +229 //// 276003 005 013 002 01
175500 2231N 08855W 9662 00364 0069 +239 +233 262005 005 011 001 00
175530 2231N 08853W 9664 00360 //// +236 //// 283004 005 007 000 01
175600 2231N 08852W 9663 00361 0069 +238 +233 272005 005 006 000 00
175630 2231N 08850W 9662 00362 0068 +240 +229 278005 005 007 000 00
175700 2231N 08848W 9664 00360 0068 +240 +228 288004 005 007 000 00
175730 2231N 08847W 9664 00361 0068 +240 +228 295003 004 008 000 00
175800 2231N 08845W 9663 00362 0069 +240 +224 290004 004 006 000 00
175830 2231N 08843W 9667 00356 0068 +242 +224 292003 004 007 000 00
175900 2231N 08841W 9664 00360 0067 +237 +231 287004 005 006 000 00
175930 2231N 08840W 9664 00360 0067 +237 +226 298006 006 006 000 01
180000 2231N 08838W 9664 00359 0068 +235 +232 287007 007 006 000 01
180030 2230N 08836W 9666 00359 0068 +237 +229 274008 008 007 000 00
180100 2230N 08834W 9666 00359 0067 +240 +227 270008 008 006 000 00
180130 2230N 08833W 9664 00359 0066 +238 +234 263007 008 007 000 01
180200 2230N 08831W 9664 00359 //// +235 //// 249007 008 007 001 01
180230 2230N 08829W 9664 00358 0066 +236 +234 252006 007 006 000 01
180300 2230N 08827W 9666 00358 //// +235 //// 248007 007 006 000 01
180330 2230N 08826W 9664 00358 0064 +238 +233 267007 008 006 000 00
$$
;

Center seems to be north of the advisory position.

[psyclone]

Daytime heating is certainly aiding the intensity of the banding on the western side of the florida peninsula. fast moving splash & dash squalls.

[cycloneye]

More west winds found but are light.

000
URNT15 KNHC 051803
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20160605
175400 2231N 08859W 9663 00362 0070 +240 +234 306003 003 008 000 00
175430 2231N 08857W 9666 00361 //// +229 //// 276003 005 013 002 01
175500 2231N 08855W 9662 00364 0069 +239 +233 262005 005 011 001 00
175530 2231N 08853W 9664 00360 //// +236 //// 283004 005 007 000 01
175600 2231N 08852W 9663 00361 0069 +238 +233 272005 005 006 000 00
175630 2231N 08850W 9662 00362 0068 +240 +229 278005 005 007 000 00
175700 2231N 08848W 9664 00360 0068 +240 +228 288004 005 007 000 00
175730 2231N 08847W 9664 00361 0068 +240 +228 295003 004 008 000 00
175800 2231N 08845W 9663 00362 0069 +240 +224 290004 004 006 000 00
175830 2231N 08843W 9667 00356 0068 +242 +224 292003 004 007 000 00
175900 2231N 08841W 9664 00360 0067 +237 +231 287004 005 006 000 00
175930 2231N 08840W 9664 00360 0067 +237 +226 298006 006 006 000 01
180000 2231N 08838W 9664 00359 0068 +235 +232 287007 007 006 000 01
180030 2230N 08836W 9666 00359 0068 +237 +229 274008 008 007 000 00
180100 2230N 08834W 9666 00359 0067 +240 +227 270008 008 006 000 00
180130 2230N 08833W 9664 00359 0066 +238 +234 263007 008 007 000 01
180200 2230N 08831W 9664 00359 //// +235 //// 249007 008 007 001 01
180230 2230N 08829W 9664 00358 0066 +236 +234 252006 007 006 000 01
180300 2230N 08827W 9666 00358 //// +235 //// 248007 007 006 000 01
180330 2230N 08826W 9664 00358 0064 +238 +233 267007 008 006 000 00
$$

[NDG]

Tampa airport:

Code: Select all

Conditions at:   KTPA observed 05 June 2016  17:53 UTC
Temperature:   24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint:   22.8°C (73°F) [RH = 91%]
Pressure (altimeter):   29.92 inches Hg (1013.3 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1013.2 mb]
Winds:   from the SW (220 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
gusting to 34 MPH (30 knots; 15.6 m/s)
Visibility:   1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling:   3300 feet AGL
Clouds:   scattered clouds at 1300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3300 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 6000 feet AGL
Present Weather:   +TSRA BR  (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s), mist)

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

[gatorcane]

There's a pretty interesting mid-level swirl on visible imagery just NE of Cancun. If convection can continue to persist in that area, I could see a surface circulation consolidating just to the W of the mid-level swirl, due to the environmental wind shear.

I agree, that is a very distinct spin just NE of the Yucatan with big thunderstorms developing near it now...interesting indeed.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[RL3AO]

The more I look at the ML center near the convection, the more interested I am to see what recon gets.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like clouds are starting to spin with it. Pressure keeps dropping as they are heading to it. Hmmm.

[gatorcane]

Click this loop and see how distinct the spin NE of Yucatan is, looks to be moving due north. Perhaps it is spinning around the broad low north of the Yucatan that the NHC has marked as the LLC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[NDG]

12z Euro is coming in a little stronger than the last couple of runs, a little more east on the track.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051813
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20160605
180400 2230N 08824W 9666 00355 0065 +236 +233 260008 008 003 000 01
180430 2230N 08822W 9664 00356 0065 +235 +233 259008 008 007 000 01
180500 2230N 08820W 9664 00358 0065 +235 +233 256007 008 006 000 01
180530 2230N 08819W 9664 00356 0065 +233 +232 252006 007 007 001 01
180600 2230N 08817W 9666 00355 0065 +234 +230 249006 007 008 000 00
180630 2230N 08815W 9664 00355 0064 +235 +231 242007 007 005 000 00
180700 2230N 08814W 9664 00356 //// +232 //// 241007 008 009 000 05
180730 2230N 08812W 9662 00358 //// +231 //// 229009 010 008 000 01
180800 2230N 08810W 9666 00354 //// +231 //// 232008 009 010 000 01
180830 2230N 08808W 9665 00355 0064 +235 +232 236008 009 008 000 00
180900 2230N 08807W 9664 00355 0063 +235 +232 231008 009 006 000 03
180930 2230N 08805W 9664 00355 0062 +233 +231 228008 008 011 000 01
181000 2230N 08803W 9666 00353 0062 +233 +231 227009 009 007 000 01
181030 2230N 08801W 9663 00355 0062 +234 +231 233009 009 004 000 01
181100 2230N 08800W 9664 00354 0061 +235 +230 240009 010 006 000 00
181130 2230N 08758W 9665 00353 0061 +236 +229 243009 010 005 000 00
181200 2230N 08756W 9664 00354 0061 +235 +232 246009 009 004 000 03
181230 2230N 08754W 9663 00355 0061 +235 +232 247009 010 010 000 01
181300 2230N 08753W 9662 00355 0061 +235 +232 246009 009 012 000 00
181330 2230N 08751W 9664 00353 0061 +235 +232 248009 010 010 000 01
$$
;