ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Yep Euro is a little stronger and has shifted a little right, will post frames here:

[SouthDadeFish]

If the mid-level swirl NE of the Yucatan actually had a surface circulation associated with it, low-level clouds coming off the Yucatan wouldn't be moving NE toward the swirl. Instead, they should be moving toward the south and southeast, around the center of the swirl. Thus, I think that circulation is confined to the mid-levels for now. However, there are some fast moving low-level clouds out of the SW just west of the swirl, again indicating a surface center could consolidate just to the west of the mid-level swirl, in a region currently devoid of convection.

[northjaxpro]

EURO also shifts the storm closer to the SE ATL coast, actually hugging the coast and deepening the storm to 998 mb just off the coast of Savannah on 12Z Tuesday morning.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051823
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20160605
181400 2230N 08749W 9663 00355 0060 +235 +231 255009 010 005 000 00
181430 2230N 08747W 9666 00353 0061 +235 +233 255006 008 012 001 00
181500 2230N 08746W 9663 00354 0060 +234 +232 254007 008 014 000 05
181530 2230N 08744W 9666 00351 //// +232 //// 251007 008 014 000 01
181600 2230N 08742W 9664 00353 0061 +235 +232 245007 007 014 000 03
181630 2230N 08740W 9663 00355 //// +232 //// 236008 008 014 001 05
181700 2230N 08739W 9666 00353 //// +231 //// 233007 008 014 001 05
181730 2230N 08737W 9664 00355 //// +230 //// 242006 007 014 000 05
181800 2230N 08735W 9666 00354 //// +232 //// 237007 008 014 000 05
181830 2230N 08733W 9666 00355 0064 +235 +232 249009 009 014 000 03
181900 2230N 08732W 9666 00355 0065 +233 +232 244008 009 014 000 05
181930 2230N 08730W 9664 00358 0065 +233 +230 229007 008 014 000 03
182000 2230N 08728W 9667 00354 0066 +230 +228 214007 008 014 000 05
182030 2230N 08726W 9662 00360 0067 +230 +228 221008 008 /// /// 03
182100 2230N 08725W 9665 00358 0067 +235 +226 234008 009 014 000 03
182130 2230N 08723W 9665 00359 0068 +235 +225 225007 008 014 000 03
182200 2230N 08721W 9664 00359 0068 +236 +224 223007 007 014 000 03
182230 2230N 08720W 9663 00361 0068 +236 +227 215007 007 014 000 03
182300 2230N 08718W 9663 00361 0069 +234 +228 211008 008 014 000 00
182330 2230N 08716W 9664 00359 0068 +230 +229 205008 008 014 000 05
$$
;

[gatorcane]

low-level vorticity is strongest east of the current NHC-marked LLC north of the Yucatan:

[cycloneye]

[pgoss11]

I guess we here in Charleston will be in for some rainy weather too.

[CrazyC83]

There was likely a remnant LLC around 23.0N 88.8W, but maybe it is decaying and reforming near the MLC in the convection.

[northjaxpro]

Hopefully Recon will let us all know about this shortly. We should know soon enough what is happening down there.

[SeGaBob]

According to that the NHC will shift the track east and our rain chances should go down considerably. (Here not Charleston)





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[psyclone]

Something else of note is the impressive secondary band of convection that extends from Cabo Gracias A Dios all the way to Havana and beyond. We'll be able to track the northern extent of this via the Key West radar should it remain intact. this just underscores the idea that adverse weather is possible well to the east of whatever mess of a center we have.

[NDG]

Yeah, I don't think there's a surface reflection underneath the MLC, at least not yet, it is still a mostly broad closed low pressure.

[northjaxpro]

Should the EURO verify, I would anticipate NHC to put up T.S. watches or warnings probably along the coast from NE Florida up to the Carolinas possibly as early as this evening.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I see the cones are now way north of Tampa...almost like a alberto 2006 path...is this accurate or should we expect shifting?

I know this forum does not do forecasts..so I was just wondering if the cone is settled at the moment

[northjaxpro]

I guess we here in Charleston will be in for some rainy weather too.

Yeah, if the EURO verifies. Plus may see some tropical storm force winds along and just off the coast on Tuesday morning.

[NDG]

Should the EURO verify, I would anticipate NHC to put up T.S. watches or warnings probably along the coast from NE Florida up the the Carolinas possibly as early as this evening.

And if it stays enough offshore I would not be surprised if it makes a run for the hurricane over the warm gulf stream, if it gets caught with the SW deep steering and becomes parallel to the windshear before becoming extratropical.

[Evil Jeremy]

I see the cones are now way north of Tampa...almost like a alberto 2006 path...is this accurate or should we expect shifting?

I know this forum does not do forecasts..so I was just wondering if the cone is settled at the moment

If the system completes a center relocation to the ESE, as it appears to be doing, the cone could shift east again. That said, the direct point of landfall isn't as important with this storm. Effects (mostly flooding rains) will be felt far from landfall, and Tampa should be in the brunt of it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

And the recon plane turns before hitting the spin off the NE coast of Yucatan....sigh.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Thanks..I'm trying to figure out if I should close our store tommorrow...not sure I want our trucks making deliveries in this weather