ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051833
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20160605
182400 2231N 08715W 9663 00362 0069 +231 +229 187007 008 014 000 05
182430 2233N 08715W 9667 00359 0069 +235 +229 183007 007 014 001 00
182500 2235N 08715W 9662 00362 0069 +233 +228 183008 008 012 000 03
182530 2236N 08715W 9662 00362 0069 +237 +223 192006 008 010 000 00
182600 2238N 08716W 9663 00359 0067 +233 +227 192008 009 012 001 00
182630 2239N 08717W 9667 00355 0067 +230 +228 187010 011 005 000 01
182700 2241N 08718W 9664 00358 0067 +230 +228 187010 010 006 000 01
182730 2242N 08719W 9664 00358 //// +230 //// 186009 010 007 002 01
182800 2243N 08719W 9665 00356 //// +230 //// 194008 009 007 000 01
182830 2245N 08720W 9663 00359 //// +230 //// 205007 008 009 000 01
182900 2246N 08721W 9666 00356 //// +231 //// 199007 008 012 000 01
182930 2247N 08722W 9665 00355 0064 +232 +231 190007 008 013 000 01
183000 2249N 08723W 9662 00359 //// +231 //// 201007 008 012 000 01
183030 2250N 08724W 9665 00355 //// +232 //// 209006 007 012 000 01
183100 2252N 08725W 9664 00355 //// +230 //// 196007 007 012 000 01
183130 2253N 08726W 9666 00355 //// +231 //// 182006 007 011 000 01
183200 2254N 08726W 9664 00355 //// +230 //// 187005 006 012 000 01
183230 2256N 08727W 9667 00353 //// +232 //// 192004 004 012 000 01
183300 2257N 08728W 9666 00354 0063 +239 +228 192003 003 012 000 00
183330 2258N 08729W 9663 00355 0062 +239 +228 214002 003 013 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[AutoPenalti]

Recon just missed the swirl. What.

[northjaxpro]

Should the EURO verify, I would anticipate NHC to put up T.S. watches or warnings probably along the coast from NE Florida up the the Carolinas possibly as early as this evening.

And if it stays enough offshore I would not be surprised if it makes a run for the hurricane over the warm gulf stream, if it gets caught with the SW deep steering and becomes parallel to the windshear before becoming extratropical.

Excellent point NDG. I omitted the Gulf Stream. We saw what effect it did for Bonnie this past week.

[gatorcane]

saved loop with distinct spin NE of Yucatan, looks like even some storms are building around it:

[Dean4Storms]

Recon just missed the swirl. What.

Evidently they were not getting any surface winds to indicate that the swirl is anything but a MLC.

[tropicwatch]

I think they might put the center where they just flew. Found wind shift and lowest pressure it seems.
Time: 18:34:00Z
Coordinates: 23.000N 87.500W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 351 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.0 mb (29.71 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 270° at 2 kts (From the W at 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Dew Pt: 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 kts (2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 11 kts* (12.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (0.04 in/hr*)

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051844
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20160605
183400 2300N 08730W 9666 00351 0060 +241 +226 270002 002 011 001 03
183430 2301N 08731W 9663 00355 0060 +240 +227 287003 003 011 000 00
183500 2301N 08733W 9663 00354 0060 +238 +228 295003 003 013 000 00
183530 2302N 08734W 9663 00354 0060 +237 +227 296002 002 012 000 00
183600 2303N 08736W 9664 00353 0061 +238 +227 332001 002 011 000 00
183630 2304N 08737W 9665 00353 0062 +234 +230 271001 001 012 000 01
183700 2304N 08739W 9664 00354 0062 +234 +231 203002 003 011 001 00
183730 2305N 08740W 9663 00355 //// +230 //// 131002 003 012 000 01
183800 2306N 08742W 9663 00355 0061 +235 +230 118004 005 011 000 00
183830 2307N 08743W 9666 00351 0062 +234 +230 108004 006 012 000 00
183900 2308N 08745W 9664 00354 0062 +235 +228 129004 005 012 000 00
183930 2308N 08746W 9664 00354 0062 +238 +228 099006 006 012 000 00
184000 2309N 08748W 9664 00356 0062 +237 +230 089006 007 011 000 00
184030 2310N 08749W 9664 00354 0063 +235 +230 089006 006 010 001 00
184100 2311N 08751W 9664 00356 0063 +235 +231 086005 006 012 000 00
184130 2311N 08752W 9664 00356 0063 +235 +231 085005 005 011 000 00
184200 2312N 08754W 9664 00355 0063 +235 +230 082006 006 011 000 00
184230 2313N 08755W 9665 00354 0063 +235 +230 073006 006 012 000 00
184300 2314N 08757W 9663 00356 0063 +235 +228 080005 005 011 000 03
184330 2315N 08758W 9664 00355 0063 +236 +227 076005 005 011 000 00
$$
;

Hints of a developing LLC at 23.1N 87.7W?

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

Their primary mission is to close of the low level center. After that, I'm sure they'll head towards the convection to get the maximum winds and their radius.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051853
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20160605
184400 2315N 08800W 9664 00355 0063 +235 +230 067005 005 011 000 00
184430 2316N 08801W 9664 00355 0063 +235 +231 057005 005 011 000 00
184500 2317N 08803W 9664 00356 0063 +235 +232 061006 006 011 000 00
184530 2318N 08804W 9664 00355 0063 +234 +233 072006 007 011 000 01
184600 2318N 08806W 9665 00355 //// +235 //// 064006 007 011 000 01
184630 2319N 08807W 9662 00359 //// +233 //// 066007 008 012 000 01
184700 2320N 08809W 9665 00356 0066 +235 +231 062007 008 012 000 01
184730 2321N 08810W 9662 00360 0066 +235 +233 056008 008 011 000 01
184800 2322N 08812W 9665 00356 0066 +235 +232 056008 009 010 000 01
184830 2322N 08813W 9664 00358 //// +235 //// 054009 009 009 000 01
184900 2323N 08815W 9665 00358 //// +235 //// 053010 010 012 000 01
184930 2324N 08816W 9665 00358 0065 +236 +232 046010 011 012 000 03
185000 2325N 08818W 9664 00359 0065 +239 +229 039009 010 011 000 00
185030 2325N 08819W 9664 00356 0064 +240 +225 041011 011 012 000 00
185100 2326N 08821W 9664 00358 0064 +239 +226 039011 011 011 000 03
185130 2327N 08822W 9664 00356 0064 +240 +225 037011 011 012 000 03
185200 2328N 08824W 9663 00358 0064 +238 +227 044012 012 012 000 00
185230 2328N 08825W 9664 00356 0065 +237 +231 044013 013 012 000 00
185300 2328N 08825W 9664 00356 0065 +237 +231 042014 014 012 000 00
185330 2330N 08828W 9663 00359 //// +235 //// 051014 014 013 000 01
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Quite a mass of convection heading towards Florida looking at the big picture:

[CrazyC83]

I think the LLC may be closed off now at 23.1N 87.7W. That's about 40 nm NE of the advisory position?

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

I see the cones are now way north of Tampa...almost like a alberto 2006 path...is this accurate or should we expect shifting?

I know this forum does not do forecasts..so I was just wondering if the cone is settled at the moment

Keep in mind that the cone has absolutely nothing to do with confidence in the current forecast, nor does it reflect a potential impact region. The cone never changes size regardless how confident the NHC is in its forecast. It simply represents typical track error (66.7%) over the past 5 years. I'd argue that cross-track error with this system will be much lower than the 5-yr average. "Colin's" impacts will be felt well outside the cone to the south and east.

[wxman57]

It still lacks a well-defined LLC based on satellite & recon. Normally, this would not qualify for upgrade to a depression. But as I stated earlier, the NHC is being proactive in declaring it a TD so that they can issue advisories early.

[cycloneye]

I think the LLC may be closed off now at 23.1N 87.7W. That's about 40 nm NE of the advisory position?

Yes,Agree as the wind shift was solid.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the GEM, a model which at times is too aggressive with intensity, may not have been off the mark with Colin afterall. Also, the past couple of days CMC has been showing Colin developing into a hurricane by Tuesday morning before transitioning to extra-tropical. The 12Z GEMbelow takes Colin down to 992 mb by 12Z Tuesday morning near Cape Hatteras as it rides quickly right along the coast near the Gulf Stream.

There may be a brief window for Colin to possibly have a chance of attaining Cat 1 hurricane status before the transition occurs on Tuesday.

[AdamFirst]

It still lacks a well-defined LLC based on satellite & recon. Normally, this would not qualify for upgrade to a depression. But as I stated earlier, the NHC is being proactive in declaring it a TD so that they can issue advisories early.

Do you anticipate consolidation with the MLC spin on visible, or do you think it'll stay exposed to the west?

[RL3AO]

It still lacks a well-defined LLC based on satellite & recon. Normally, this would not qualify for upgrade to a depression. But as I stated earlier, the NHC is being proactive in declaring it a TD so that they can issue advisories early.

I'd say that most recent couple sets of HDOBs seems to show a fairly well defined center. Although, you're probably on the right page when it comes to starting advisories at 11am. It was really a toss up at NHC.