ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Interesting that they are finding slightly lower pressures in that area.

[floridasun78]

Interesting that they are finding slightly lower pressures in that area.

what area?

[tolakram]

Looks to me like LLC will be off the NE tip of the UP, look at those new storms building in that area.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=650&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

Interesting that they are finding slightly lower pressures in that area.

It makes sense. When you put sustained intense convection over an area it's going to lower the pressure.

[cycloneye]

Here is plane going east.

[chaser1]

S-SSW winds is that the Recon is finding just to the west of the MLC, so nothing at the surface just yet underneath the MLC.

Exactly why I would've held off on an upgrade to T.D. Evidence of a sharp trough at the surface but no west winds. Meanwhile, with present upper level shear and limited banding or convection, I'd be remiss to label the broad surface low to the north as Depression either. Will a singular point that more clearly fits the definition of a T.D. form? I'd guess probably but not quite yet. If and when it does though, will quite possibly be at a point a bit east and south of the advisory

[tropicwatch]

Interesting that they are finding slightly lower pressures in that area.

It makes sense. When you put sustained intense convection over an area it's going to lower the pressure.

Thanks for the clarification.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052014
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20160605
200400 2143N 08620W 9663 00351 0056 +237 +231 171016 016 014 000 03
200430 2143N 08618W 9664 00349 0056 +237 +232 169016 016 012 000 00
200500 2143N 08617W 9664 00349 0056 +239 +228 176016 016 013 000 00
200530 2143N 08615W 9666 00348 0055 +240 +229 181016 016 012 000 00
200600 2142N 08613W 9664 00349 0055 +240 +229 184016 016 014 000 00
200630 2142N 08612W 9663 00349 0054 +240 +226 186017 017 014 000 00
200700 2142N 08610W 9664 00348 0054 +240 +225 190016 017 015 000 00
200730 2142N 08608W 9664 00347 0053 +240 +224 189016 017 015 000 00
200800 2142N 08607W 9664 00347 0052 +242 +218 193016 017 015 000 00
200830 2142N 08605W 9665 00345 0052 +243 +217 197016 017 016 000 00
200900 2141N 08603W 9666 00344 0051 +243 +220 199018 018 016 000 00
200930 2141N 08602W 9663 00347 0052 +242 +221 195018 019 014 000 03
201000 2142N 08600W 9654 00354 0050 +240 +224 188018 018 /// /// 03
201030 2144N 08601W 9676 00336 0052 +244 +219 185016 018 019 000 00
201100 2145N 08601W 9662 00347 0050 +243 +224 184016 017 019 000 00
201130 2147N 08602W 9664 00344 0050 +240 +227 182018 018 019 000 00
201200 2149N 08602W 9665 00345 0052 +240 +225 184016 017 018 000 00
201230 2150N 08602W 9664 00347 0052 +240 +221 184015 016 019 000 00
201300 2152N 08603W 9663 00348 0053 +235 +230 178015 016 018 000 00
201330 2153N 08603W 9665 00345 0054 +234 +229 181015 015 017 003 01
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the plane is heading right into the Yucatan Channel to check out the MLC. We should find out something soon.

[RL3AO]

Looks to me like LLC will be off the NE tip of the UP, look at those new storms building in that area.

For those following along at home, recon is finding the surface low where the red L is while we're seeing a stronger mid-level circulation where the yellow circle is. One thing to watch over the next twelve hours is if they can become co-located.

[MetroMike]

Found this interesting, not sure what to make of it.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 103,32.566

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB28:

[tolakram]

S-SSW winds is that the Recon is finding just to the west of the MLC, so nothing at the surface just yet underneath the MLC.

Exactly why I would've held off on an upgrade to T.D. Evidence of a sharp trough at the surface but no west winds. Meanwhile, with present upper level shear and limited banding or convection, I'd be remiss to label the broad surface low to the north as Depression either. Will a singular point that more clearly fits the definition of a T.D. form? I'd guess probably but not quite yet. If and when it does though, will quite possibly be at a point a bit east and south of the advisory

I think the working opinion is they upgraded in order to place warnings, not because they were certain there was an LLC. Next year they won't have to upgrade to warn. Their primary mission is to protect the public and in my opinion this was a good call, even though technically I think you are correct.

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic

efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings,

forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical

weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

Found this interesting, not sure what to make of it.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 103,32.566

Don't get me wrong, that is a fantastic site, however it is worth keeping in mind that its using the GFS analysis/forecast (at least I'm pretty sure). Its a great way to display weather data, but make sure you don't confuse it for high resolution observed data.

[SeGaBob]

Does anyone think it'll get upgraded at 5pm?

[floridasun78]

gulf stream plane fly out tampa now join other plane

[NDG]

The weird thing is that it found lower pressures near the MLC than near the broad surface low but no LLC. yet.

[floridasun78]

gulf stream plane fly out tampa now join other plane