ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Not surprisingly, there are TS force winds in the convection. Should be Colin anytime.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052133
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 37 20160605
212400 2419N 08527W 9660 00355 0058 +234 +233 123033 035 027 000 01
212430 2420N 08529W 9666 00350 0058 +235 +233 123034 035 028 000 00
212500 2421N 08531W 9662 00354 0059 +235 +232 122032 034 029 000 00
212530 2422N 08533W 9664 00352 0058 +235 +230 125033 035 029 001 03
212600 2422N 08534W 9662 00352 0057 +235 +230 123032 034 026 001 00
212630 2422N 08536W 9663 00352 0058 +235 +231 124031 032 030 000 01
212700 2422N 08538W 9663 00352 0057 +233 +231 127030 033 031 000 01
212730 2422N 08540W 9687 00330 //// +222 //// 136023 030 024 001 01
212800 2421N 08542W 9656 00354 //// +225 //// 130025 029 024 001 01
212830 2421N 08544W 9671 00343 0055 +226 +222 146023 025 023 001 00
212900 2421N 08546W 9667 00345 0055 +230 +219 152026 027 020 000 03
212930 2420N 08547W 9665 00347 0056 +230 +214 158028 028 022 000 00
213000 2420N 08548W 9664 00347 0055 +223 +215 162025 027 022 000 00
213030 2419N 08550W 9664 00347 0056 +220 +216 159021 023 021 000 01
213100 2418N 08551W 9665 00345 0055 +222 +213 155021 021 021 001 01
213130 2417N 08553W 9662 00348 0053 +225 +212 155021 023 022 000 00
213200 2416N 08554W 9665 00345 0053 +226 +212 157025 025 022 001 00
213230 2416N 08556W 9665 00344 0053 +225 +219 156028 028 023 000 03
213300 2415N 08557W 9663 00347 0053 +224 +221 158028 028 023 000 00
213330 2414N 08558W 9664 00343 //// +220 //// 152025 027 022 000 05

[Chris_in_Tampa]

With suspect data:

[drewschmaltz]

2015 Cat 5 w/o an eye. 2016 TD w/ an eye. What is this craziness? (Just kidding)

[AtlanticWind]

GFS coming in a little stronger and slightly east of last run

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[AtlanticWind]

Much Stronger

[SeGaBob]

Now it's a TS

[northjaxpro]

Yelp, NHC just made the call to upgrade to Colin.

[MetroMike]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 052135
TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[MetroMike]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 052135
TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[RL3AO]

Wow. 998 at landfall in FL now from the GFS.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS now brings Colin to 998 mb before landfall

[Siker]

Earliest 3rd storm on record.

[NDG]

:30 PM CDT Sun Jun 5
Location: 23.3°N 87.9°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I just saw the new GFS run. So now EURO, GFS, GEM, CMC are all showing a stronger Colin, making me think Colin may just make it to Cat 1 hurricane status as he hugs the SE Atlantic coast just before making the extra-tropical transition during the day Tuesday. There is definitely that possibility now.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052143
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 38 20160605
213400 2413N 08600W 9666 00347 //// +224 //// 151024 026 022 001 01
213430 2412N 08601W 9666 00349 //// +223 //// 148025 026 024 000 01
213500 2412N 08603W 9664 00350 //// +225 //// 151025 026 023 000 01
213530 2411N 08604W 9664 00351 //// +225 //// 151025 026 023 001 01
213600 2410N 08606W 9665 00350 //// +225 //// 151026 026 025 000 01
213630 2409N 08607W 9662 00353 //// +225 //// 150026 027 024 000 01
213700 2408N 08608W 9665 00348 //// +225 //// 154025 027 025 000 01
213730 2408N 08610W 9662 00351 0058 +227 +224 152024 026 023 000 01
213800 2407N 08611W 9665 00349 //// +225 //// 152023 024 024 000 01
213830 2406N 08613W 9666 00348 //// +226 //// 156023 024 024 000 01
213900 2405N 08614W 9663 00351 //// +225 //// 158021 021 021 000 01
213930 2404N 08615W 9665 00349 0058 +227 +218 157021 022 022 000 00
214000 2404N 08617W 9666 00349 0059 +225 +223 158020 020 023 000 01
214030 2403N 08618W 9662 00351 0058 +225 +220 155019 020 022 001 00
214100 2402N 08620W 9663 00350 0059 +227 +217 152018 020 020 001 00
214130 2401N 08621W 9666 00348 0058 +228 +210 152018 018 021 000 00
214200 2400N 08622W 9664 00349 0058 +226 +214 150018 018 019 000 00
214230 2359N 08624W 9664 00350 0058 +228 +212 150018 018 019 001 00
214300 2358N 08625W 9664 00349 0057 +229 +210 149017 018 019 000 00
214330 2357N 08626W 9663 00350 0057 +228 +211 144016 017 020 000 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Wow GFS has trended stronger indeed, now strong TS in the NE Gulf.

[NDG]

Orlando executive airport:

onditions at: KORL observed 05 June 2016 21:36 UTC
Temperature: 26.1°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 85%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.89 inches Hg (1012.3 mb)
Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.4 m/s)
gusting to 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
Visibility: 2.50 miles (4.02 km)
Ceiling: 4000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2100 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 2900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 4000 feet AGL
Present Weather: TSRA (rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

[gatorcane]

Seems the upper-level trough over Eastern Texas might be a little bit weaker than previously thought at least by the GFS. Latest GFS run shows this trough not inducing as much shear over Colin as Colin moves NE in the Eastern Gulf as it was showing in the previous run and consequently the GFS brings this to a strong TS as it makes landfall in the big bend area. WV loop shows this trough quite well. Seems to be getting squashed and is flattening out.