ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[thundercam96]

Max surface winds are displaced 145NM from the center....seems more subtropical to me. I too questioned the upgrade to TD this morning...but I'm not writing the official advisories. You folks in Florida stay dry......MGC

I believe the upgrade was made in order to issue warnings and on the assumption it would eventually organize further.

Agreed... The general public wasn't really aware of this system until this AM/ Afternoon, especially with it being close to 24 hours of forecasted landfall.

[robbielyn]

Max surface winds are displaced 145NM from the center....seems more subtropical to me. I too questioned the upgrade to TD this morning...but I'm not writing the official advisories. You folks in Florida stay dry......MGC

I believe the upgrade was made in order to issue warnings and on the assumption it would eventually organize further.

I think its a good idea if a storm is on our doorstep. If this strengthens like the GFS predicts, folks out there will be glad they did. Poor NHC they always between rock and hard place.

[robbielyn]

Max surface winds are displaced 145NM from the center....seems more subtropical to me. I too questioned the upgrade to TD this morning...but I'm not writing the official advisories. You folks in Florida stay dry......MGC

I believe the upgrade was made in order to issue warnings and on the assumption it would eventually organize further.

Agreed... The general public wasn't really aware of this system until this AM/ Afternoon, especially with it being close to 24 hours of forecasted landfall.

Nowadays with mobile devices going everywhere people go with weather alert apps and so forth, I have found more people are aware than ever before. Now whether they take it seriously or not thats another story.

[NDG]

Last few sat visible pics before the sun sets tonight I think the MLC is really taking over the entire system, I see the surface circulation rotating around it or at least one of them.

[AdamFirst]

Anyone know if this is still a Miami threat, especially now with the upgrade?

Miami is still under threat from gusty squalls and heavy rainfall, as well as a marginal to slight tornado risk (risk increases farther north). Sustained tropical storm force winds aren't likely for the southeast coast.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NotoSans]

Max surface winds are displaced 145NM from the center....seems more subtropical to me. I too questioned the upgrade to TD this morning...but I'm not writing the official advisories. You folks in Florida stay dry......MGC

I believe the upgrade was made in order to issue warnings and on the assumption it would eventually organize further.

I agree with that. NHC probably has learnt some lessons from Bill last year.

[Hammy]

Last few sat visible pics before the sun sets tonight I think the MLC is really taking over the entire system, I see the surface circulation rotating around it or at least one of them.

When's the next recon mission? It'll be interesting to see what they find if this can get a nice persistent convective blowup overnight.

[NDG]

Last few sat visible pics before the sun sets tonight I think the MLC is really taking over the entire system, I see the surface circulation rotating around it or at least one of them.

When's the next recon mission? It'll be interesting to see what they find if this can get a nice persistent convective blowup overnight.

Early tomorrow morning, I believe.

[thundercam96]

[NDG]

18z GFS shows some 70 knot winds at H85, that would translate to strong tropical force winds at the surface.

[gatorcane]

Last few sat visible pics before the sun sets tonight I think the MLC is really taking over the entire system, I see the surface circulation rotating around it or at least one of them.

Certainly looks that way I agree:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[northjaxpro]

I am not liking that GFS 850 mb profile NDG. That would potentially cause lots of problems across the area late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[gatorcane]

Not used to the GFS fluctuating this much with intensity in the short-range and under 36 hours

[thundercam96]

:uarrow: I am not liking that NDG. That would cause lots of problems across the area late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

I second that. The local weather stations have pushed nothing but "Light winds and rain" for tomorrow. I honestly hope these recent models showing intensification with this system do not verify. Many could be in a rough spot come tomorrow night if they do.

[thundercam96]

579
WTNT33 KNHC 052341
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 87.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 87.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Watches or warnings may need to be extended northward along the
southeast United States coast later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 87.8 West.
Colin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
tonight through Monday. On this track, the center of Colin
is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area
Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast before Colin reaches the coast of
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East coast, within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions
of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon from earlier. The 1005mb vortex was at 6:14pm as the Air Force exited the storm to the north.

7:00pm EDT AVN imagery:


7:29pm EDT visible imagery:

Satellite: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

[tailgater]

That Mlc may end up taking over but for now I think it is still rotating around the larger broad circulation, and will still end up near the big bend area. Hopefully all the rain will be to the east of the center, I don't want another drop here in S.La. and I'm sure the folks in Texas are glad it's not coming their way.

[psyclone]

the NWS has gusts to 60mph in the forecast for Cedar key and as high as 55mph for the beaches of Pinellas.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think tropical storm Colin will be a hurricane and what should we expect in Boca Raton