ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Does anyone think tropical storm Colin will be a hurricane and what should we expect in Boca Raton

I don't think it will become a minimum hurricane in the GOM before landfall over the Big Bend region, but I think there is a brief, small window of opportunity, if shear is not decapitating, that Colin may attain Cat 1 status if he can get out into the Gulf Stream off the SE ATL coast before becoming extratropical during Tuesday.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

With 7pm CDT intermediate advisory position:

[Nimbus]

Wow GFS has trended stronger indeed, now strong TS in the NE Gulf.

Looks to me on SAT that the upper level trough over SE Texas is weakening and retrograding slowly SW. This might be the reason GFS now showing strengthening.

So what will the upper air environment be like in 24 hours?
Hopefully that shear from the south will keep Colin from stacking up but the trough is no longer moving east.

[gatorcane]

MLC looks vigorous and seems to be moving more NNE. Last frame before sun goes down

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[stormhunter7]

G-IV data is showing 50+mph winds on west side of colin at 40kft. SHEAR!

latest http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&identifier=Cyclone&mission=WA&agency=NOAA&aircraft=9&month=06&day=05&product=sonde&latest=1

[psyclone]

a non stop parade of squalls runs from Tampa Bay all the way to west of Havana. Gulf coast residents will need to time their dog walks carefully this evening

[tarheelprogrammer]

G-IV data is showing 50+mph winds on west side of colin at 40kft. SHEAR!

latest http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&identifier=Cyclone&mission=WA&agency=NOAA&aircraft=9&month=06&day=05&product=sonde&latest=1

Haircut time.

[NDG]

Wow GFS has trended stronger indeed, now strong TS in the NE Gulf.

http://i.imgur.com/2ISDtMy.png

Looks to me on SAT that the upper level trough over SE Texas is weakening and retrograding slowly SW. This might be the reason GFS now showing strengthening.

So what will the upper air environment be like in 24 hours?
Hopefully that shear from the south will keep Colin from stacking up but the trough is no longer moving east.

Here's the map for tomorrow evening, it looks like Colin will maintain the current UL environment, 20-30 knot windshear, moderate to strong but not that it will decapitate it.

[NDG]

G-IV data is showing 50+mph winds on west side of colin at 40kft. SHEAR!

latest http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&identifier=Cyclone&mission=WA&agency=NOAA&aircraft=9&month=06&day=05&product=sonde&latest=1

Haircut time.

Guess what? Colin is not moving to the west into the stronger sheared area

[NDG]

a non stop parade of squalls runs from Tampa Bay all the way to west of Havana. Gulf coast residents will need to time their dog walks carefully this evening

Indeed, a Havana-Tampa express.

[tarheelprogrammer]

G-IV data is showing 50+mph winds on west side of colin at 40kft. SHEAR!

latest http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&identifier=Cyclone&mission=WA&agency=NOAA&aircraft=9&month=06&day=05&product=sonde&latest=1

Haircut time.

Guess what? Colin is not moving to the west into the stronger sheared area

True but what about the flight level winds that are in the 90 range above him? To the northeast?

[stormwise]

With out cherry picking.

[tgenius]

a non stop parade of squalls runs from Tampa Bay all the way to west of Havana. Gulf coast residents will need to time their dog walks carefully this evening

Indeed, a Havana-Tampa express.

Based on the way that's shaping, Eastern South FL doesn't appear like it will get as much rain from Colin.

[NDG]

Haircut time.

Guess what? Colin is not moving to the west into the stronger sheared area

True but what about the flight level winds that are in the 90 range above him? To the northeast?

I am sure they will relax some as the system moves northward and the UL anticyclone tries to move northward with it, or at least some portion of it.

[AdamFirst]

Based on the way that's shaping, Eastern South FL doesn't appear like it will get as much rain from Colin.

As the mass and the associated energy pushes northeastward, Southeast Florida will get its share of rain and squalls, just not at the frequency of the west coast.

South Florida may see its heaviest rainfall later in the week after Colin is long gone due to the stalling trough.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

I could not resist posting the wide view of the Atlantic basin. It is remarkable to give you an idea just how large and massive this gyre is, as the deep tropical moisture is funneling all the way from the Eastern Pacific north/northeast to Colin in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mother Nature's moisture pump truly in full effect, on satellite imagery.






Also you can see clearly how the upper trough over Northern Mexico continues to retrograde southwest for the time being, which is actually helping the cyclone ventilate and is keeping the decapitating shear away from Colin for the time being.

[tropicwatch]

The imagery above kind of gives the impression that the front is separating at the Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi state lines.

[floridasun78]

a non stop parade of squalls runs from Tampa Bay all the way to west of Havana. Gulf coast residents will need to time their dog walks carefully this evening

Indeed, a Havana-Tampa express.

Based on the way that's shaping, Eastern South FL doesn't appear like it will get as much rain from Colin.

i was say that look all rain staying off gulf coast moving north for now nws was expacting east coast get good rain from COLIN

[CrazyC83]

Next flight is tomorrow morning?

[cycloneye]

Next flight is tomorrow morning?

Plane departs at 3:30z.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 06/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 06/0330Z
D. 25.0N 87.2W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT