ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

It's not opening up. Nor will it look much better. This is what was always expected. A typical June TC

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 87.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Altamaha Sound Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued south of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Sebastian Inlet Florida. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Altamaha Sound Georgia
to the South Santee River South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin
was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 87.8 West.
Colin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected tonight through Monday. On this track, the center
of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast before Colin reaches the coast of
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western Florida,
eastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through
Tuesday.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East coast within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Gulf coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon, and the
Atlantic coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the
watch area on Tuesday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions
of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the
low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery.
The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the
east of where the low-level center was last found. Another
Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm
around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the
center.

The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strong
southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of
Colin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model
consensus.

Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoning
has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or
two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the
flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later,
the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over
the north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to that
of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output.

It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[thundercam96]

998
WTNT33 KNHC 060241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 87.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[tolakram]

live ir. I'd say the LLC is still north of the YP, where the NHC identified it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-86&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=650&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[BobHarlem]

Warnings up from Sebasitian Inlet up into Georgia now for the east coast.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, now my region under Tropical Storm Warning. I am not surprised given the trends. It is going to be an extremely interesting next 24-36 hour period for sure .

[stormwise]

It will be interesting what the next recon finds, the whole western side of the storm is likely no stronger than 5kts at the surface.

[caneman]

That is pretty much what you would expect from a very early season storm.

[Hurricaneman]

Here's my thing looking at the models, if this goes farther north at landfall it would be more sheared, but if this comes in closer to Tampa it may have a chance to become a hurricane before landfall so in this case the trend is not out friend

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[thundercam96]

Here's my thing looking at the models, if this goes farther north at landfall it would be more sheared, but if this comes in closer to Tampa it may have a chance to become a hurricane before landfall so in this case the trend is not out friend

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That would be disastrous... Many people I know went to bed tonight expecting light wind and rain tomorrow.

[Hurricaneman]

Theres a big blowup of T-storms near the Yucatan but nowhere near the low, but you can see the low is about 100mi north of the blowup where the clouds curl up

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

the 12K NAM solution may not be that far fetched. The 4K... well... please tell me there is no cumulus parameterization on a 4km run. Seems off that a 4km run would have less shear effects than a 12km run

The 18Z MU seems to be overdoing the QG enhancement

[thundercam96]

the 12K NAM solution may not be that far fetched. The 4K... well... please tell me there is no cumulus parameterization on a 4km run. Seems off that a 4km run would have less shear effects than a 12km run

The 18Z MU seems to be overdoing the QG enhancement

Are you able to provide screencaps for those?

[AutoPenalti]

Nudging to the north east now.

[Alyono]

available publicly on tropical tidbits.

[bg1]

The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the
east of where the low-level center was last found.

Is there a chance the MLC works down to the surface and becomes dominant? Would that have much of an effect on track?

[tropicwatch]

They are on there way again.

[bamajammer4eva]

I noticed the showers down in the panhandle have changed direction and are moving from SE to NW whereas earlier they were moving off to the NE as a cold front to the west was causing the rain.

[tropicwatch]

Showers are approaching the Florida panhandle. The direction they are moving would indicate that they are being influenced by Colin and not an approaching front.

[tropicwatch]

Great minds think alike