ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#721 Postby sponger » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:01 pm

Already had our first impact here in NE Florida. Around 8:00, we had moisture pulled up by the circulation stream in. Low level fast moving clouds with gusts to 30. Rain gauge showed 1/2 inch in 30 minutes! Tomorrow night will be fun.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#722 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:09 pm

Based on what I see this is a well organized tropical storm and may need to be watched for we may get a 65 to 75mph tropical storm before Florida which would be a rude awakening and may have a good chance at being a hurricane on its way out to sea afterwards

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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#723 Postby HurricaneEric » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:10 pm

FYI, for those who were asking about Colin impacts to Southeast FL:

Chief Met. for WSVN, Phil Ferro, said that the trough digging into the GoM will push up any leftover tropical moisture from the Caribbean (spoiler alert: theres going to be a lot) into the Fla. peninsula after Colin moves out. Reason for predictions of heavy rainfall to stick around towards the end of the week (Wed-Fri namely). Entire peninsula will be drenched by Fri.

:rain:
Last edited by HurricaneEric on Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#724 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:11 pm

sky look orange here like want rain and be stormy but b no rain Miami yet
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#725 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:12 pm

Will the blowup of convection over the Yucatan get sucked into the storm?
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#726 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:13 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Based on what I see this is a well organized tropical storm and may need to be watched for we may get a 65 to 75mph tropical storm before Florida which would be a rude awakening and may have a good chance at being a hurricane on its way out to sea afterwards

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Sorry this IMO is anything but well organized. There are no signs of a CDO like you'd see in a traditional strength TS and the center is exposed and separate from the MLC. Regardless of the true intensity, the affects will be primarily the same.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#727 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:17 pm

wondering if when I wake up in the morning, the path will be shifted east again and a strong storm will be off the coast. don't want to sleep and miss the models, but gotta work.

aaahhhh the "fun" of storm season has begun. sleepless nights and hurricane preps!
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#728 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Based on what I see this is a well organized tropical storm and may need to be watched for we may get a 65 to 75mph tropical storm before Florida which would be a rude awakening and may have a good chance at being a hurricane on its way out to sea afterwards

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Sorry this IMO is anything but well organized. There are no signs of a CDO like you'd see in a traditional strength TS and the center is exposed and separate from the MLC. Regardless of the true intensity, the affects will be primarily the same.


Well what I did mean is better organized than I was expecting at this point so I admit I misworded it

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Re: ATL: COLIN - Models

#729 Postby HurricaneEric » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:21 pm

thundercam96 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Here's my thing looking at the models, if this goes farther north at landfall it would be more sheared, but if this comes in closer to Tampa it may have a chance to become a hurricane before landfall so in this case the trend is not out friend

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:eek: That would be disastrous... Many people I know went to bed tonight expecting light wind and rain tomorrow.


Would remind me of Katrina when it went over our area as a Cat. 1. Didn't expect that southwest dive the eye took and we ended up being in the eyewall of a Cat. 1 with no boards or shutters up. :eek:
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#730 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:43 pm

Now descending taking a different route into the storm this time.

Image
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#731 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:46 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 060434
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 10 20160606
042500 2756N 08526W 3922 07755 0434 -155 -162 199014 016 021 000 00
042530 2755N 08524W 3922 07757 0434 -155 -158 200014 016 022 000 00
042600 2755N 08521W 3923 07755 0434 -154 -160 207012 013 022 000 00
042630 2754N 08519W 3922 07757 0434 -154 -163 209014 015 022 001 00
042700 2753N 08516W 3922 07755 0434 -155 -163 206016 016 022 001 03
042730 2752N 08515W 3919 07760 0434 -155 -163 212018 019 017 002 00
042800 2750N 08513W 4005 07614 0438 -146 -158 215020 020 016 001 00
042830 2748N 08512W 4160 07324 0419 -128 -138 214020 021 015 000 00
042900 2746N 08511W 4318 07039 0401 -111 -127 209023 025 019 001 00
042930 2744N 08510W 4508 06711 0382 -097 -114 198032 035 023 000 00
043000 2742N 08508W 4682 06418 0364 -080 -104 195029 034 025 000 00
043030 2740N 08507W 4891 06079 0343 -062 -073 191020 024 024 000 00
043100 2738N 08506W 5092 05760 0322 -044 -048 196019 020 025 000 00
043130 2736N 08505W 5310 05426 0301 -023 -026 190017 017 025 001 00
043200 2734N 08504W 5541 05088 0092 -004 -012 186017 017 026 001 00
043230 2732N 08502W 5766 04769 0108 +008 +004 180011 017 030 005 00
043300 2730N 08501W 6002 04445 //// +018 //// 152011 013 032 003 01
043330 2728N 08500W 6134 04258 //// +032 //// 140014 015 029 001 01
043400 2727N 08459W 6294 04046 0104 +048 +031 145012 013 029 001 00
043430 2725N 08458W 6462 03833 //// +050 //// 144014 016 026 001 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#732 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:50 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#733 Postby stormhunter7 » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:51 pm

I have a feeling the TS has stalled in its area, or is even more poorly organized. Recon is inbound so we will see soon.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#734 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:52 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 060444
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 11 20160606
043500 2724N 08457W 6674 03567 //// +068 //// 134012 014 023 001 01
043530 2722N 08456W 6886 03309 0120 +083 +078 158011 014 022 000 00
043600 2720N 08455W 7096 03060 0125 +094 +082 172013 016 021 001 00
043630 2719N 08454W 7298 02825 0126 +109 +090 162016 017 022 001 00
043700 2717N 08453W 7509 02585 0128 +120 +102 159018 019 022 001 00
043730 2716N 08452W 7732 02340 0129 +136 +115 156020 022 023 001 00
043800 2714N 08451W 7994 02057 0133 +149 +129 152023 024 024 001 00
043830 2713N 08450W 8261 01778 0137 +160 +145 159025 027 023 001 00
043900 2711N 08450W 8484 01547 0135 +170 +160 162030 031 024 000 00
043930 2710N 08449W 8705 01325 0134 +182 +171 164033 034 022 001 00
044000 2709N 08448W 8949 01086 0130 +199 +182 160035 035 023 001 00
044030 2707N 08447W 9136 00901 0126 +208 +195 158035 035 024 001 00
044100 2706N 08446W 9238 00795 0117 +210 +206 151035 035 025 001 00
044130 2705N 08446W 9246 00787 0115 +210 +206 151034 035 025 001 00
044200 2704N 08445W 9246 00787 0116 +209 +207 150034 034 025 000 01
044230 2703N 08444W 9246 00787 0116 +209 +207 153034 035 024 001 01
044300 2702N 08444W 9248 00784 0116 +209 +207 153035 035 024 000 01
044330 2701N 08443W 9246 00787 0115 +210 +207 154035 035 024 001 01
044400 2659N 08442W 9249 00783 0114 +210 +207 154035 036 024 001 01
044430 2658N 08441W 9247 00785 0115 +210 +207 155034 035 024 001 34
$$
;
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#735 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:58 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#736 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:58 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 060454
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 12 20160606
044500 2657N 08441W 9245 00787 0114 +210 +206 154033 034 023 000 00
044530 2656N 08440W 9258 00775 0114 +210 +208 151033 034 020 002 05
044600 2655N 08441W 9248 00784 0115 +209 +207 148032 033 019 000 01
044630 2654N 08443W 9248 00782 0110 +210 +207 148032 033 019 000 01
044700 2653N 08444W 9249 00777 0115 +210 +207 149032 033 020 001 01
044730 2652N 08445W 9248 00790 0122 +210 +207 149033 033 020 001 01
044800 2651N 08446W 9250 00790 0122 +210 +208 148033 033 020 000 01
044830 2650N 08447W 9250 00788 0121 +210 +208 148032 033 020 000 01
044900 2649N 08449W 9248 00790 0121 +209 +207 148032 032 020 000 01
044930 2648N 08450W 9248 00790 0120 +209 +207 148032 032 020 000 00
045000 2646N 08451W 9248 00790 0120 +210 +206 151033 033 020 001 00
045030 2645N 08452W 9248 00789 0119 +210 +206 150033 034 019 000 00
045100 2644N 08453W 9248 00789 0120 +210 +208 147033 033 019 000 01
045130 2643N 08455W 9249 00787 0121 +211 //// 142031 033 019 000 05
045200 2642N 08456W 9246 00790 0124 +207 //// 136027 029 027 009 01
045230 2641N 08457W 9250 00787 //// +206 //// 143024 028 025 002 01
045300 2640N 08459W 9247 00787 //// +208 //// 146025 026 026 004 01
045330 2639N 08500W 9247 00786 0119 +209 //// 139026 028 028 004 01
045400 2638N 08501W 9250 00785 0121 +209 //// 138025 027 028 006 01
045430 2637N 08502W 9249 00783 0120 +204 //// 138026 027 028 006 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#737 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:06 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 060504
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 13 20160606
045500 2636N 08504W 9249 00784 0120 +205 //// 144027 027 027 005 01
045530 2635N 08505W 9249 00785 0116 +207 +201 159027 028 025 003 00
045600 2634N 08506W 9250 00784 0116 +204 +201 162027 027 023 003 01
045630 2633N 08507W 9249 00783 0117 +205 +200 160027 027 023 006 00
045700 2632N 08508W 9246 00786 0114 +210 +200 154026 026 021 004 00
045730 2630N 08509W 9251 00782 0114 +210 +206 156030 031 020 002 00
045800 2629N 08511W 9248 00784 0113 +210 +206 158032 033 018 002 00
045830 2628N 08512W 9248 00783 0113 +211 +196 157033 033 022 001 00
045900 2627N 08513W 9252 00778 0113 +209 +197 153034 035 023 004 00
045930 2626N 08514W 9247 00783 0114 +206 +200 155035 035 024 004 00
050000 2625N 08515W 9250 00780 0112 +209 +199 158036 037 021 003 00
050030 2624N 08517W 9248 00782 0111 +211 +191 159036 037 024 001 00
050100 2623N 08518W 9245 00784 0112 +211 +188 159036 036 022 002 00
050130 2622N 08519W 9250 00778 0112 +210 +192 159036 036 024 001 00
050200 2621N 08520W 9252 00778 0111 +208 +199 159035 036 023 001 00
050230 2620N 08521W 9245 00784 0111 +210 +201 158035 035 022 004 00
050300 2619N 08522W 9250 00777 0109 +213 +195 158033 035 021 001 00
050330 2618N 08524W 9249 00778 0110 +213 +193 156033 034 022 001 00
050400 2617N 08525W 9249 00778 0108 +215 +196 157036 036 021 001 00
050430 2616N 08526W 9250 00776 0106 +215 +193 159037 038 022 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#738 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:09 am

Image
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#739 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:17 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 060514
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 14 20160606
050500 2615N 08527W 9250 00776 0106 +216 +196 159038 039 021 000 00
050530 2614N 08528W 9248 00778 0105 +216 +198 155038 039 023 000 00
050600 2613N 08529W 9250 00775 0105 +215 +201 156039 040 022 000 00
050630 2612N 08531W 9246 00778 0104 +212 +205 156040 040 022 000 00
050700 2611N 08532W 9249 00776 0103 +215 +203 157040 040 022 000 00
050730 2610N 08533W 9251 00772 0102 +217 +201 158039 040 021 001 00
050800 2609N 08534W 9243 00779 0102 +215 +201 154034 038 023 000 00
050830 2608N 08535W 9247 00775 0102 +210 +205 146033 034 023 000 00
050900 2607N 08536W 9252 00768 0101 +210 +207 142034 035 025 000 00
050930 2606N 08538W 9250 00770 //// +207 //// 145035 036 024 000 01
051000 2605N 08539W 9250 00770 //// +206 //// 148037 038 024 001 01
051030 2604N 08540W 9252 00768 //// +207 //// 146037 038 025 000 01
051100 2603N 08541W 9248 00771 0100 +210 +208 143040 041 023 001 01
051130 2602N 08542W 9252 00767 0099 +210 +207 143040 041 023 001 00
051200 2601N 08544W 9250 00768 0099 +210 +203 146041 042 024 000 00
051230 2600N 08545W 9246 00774 0100 +207 +206 146040 041 022 001 01
051300 2558N 08546W 9249 00769 //// +205 //// 144039 040 023 000 01
051330 2557N 08547W 9251 00767 //// +208 //// 147030 038 023 000 01
051400 2556N 08548W 9254 00765 //// +207 //// 150033 033 023 000 01
051430 2555N 08550W 9248 00769 0098 +205 +203 149033 034 024 000 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Recon

#740 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:19 am

Image
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