ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It looks like the COC is trying to reform further east, but the pressure is not as as low as I would had thought, at least for now.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060834
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 34 20160606
082500 2437N 08538W 8425 01569 //// +169 //// 239007 009 014 003 01
082530 2437N 08539W 8434 01556 //// +171 //// 244006 007 010 002 01
082600 2437N 08541W 8436 01555 0082 +173 +168 245008 009 010 000 01
082630 2437N 08543W 8428 01565 0082 +179 +161 251008 009 010 000 00
082700 2438N 08544W 8432 01561 0081 +180 +161 240009 009 011 000 00
082730 2438N 08546W 8429 01563 0082 +180 +156 237009 010 010 001 00
082800 2438N 08548W 8433 01561 0083 +178 +158 236012 014 011 000 00
082830 2439N 08549W 8427 01566 0082 +176 +164 232013 013 010 001 00
082900 2439N 08551W 8432 01559 0083 +175 +164 236012 013 010 000 00
082930 2439N 08553W 8433 01559 0082 +175 +165 235014 015 011 001 01
083000 2439N 08554W 8427 01564 0080 +180 +167 226015 015 010 000 00
083030 2440N 08556W 8433 01558 0080 +177 +169 223016 018 009 001 01
083100 2440N 08558W 8428 01564 //// +175 //// 223019 020 010 001 01
083130 2440N 08559W 8428 01562 //// +169 //// 227017 019 012 001 01
083200 2441N 08601W 8430 01559 0081 +175 +171 219020 020 009 000 01
083230 2441N 08603W 8432 01556 0081 +174 +169 220019 020 008 001 00
083300 2441N 08604W 8431 01557 0079 +177 +170 223019 021 008 001 00
083330 2441N 08606W 8431 01559 0087 +172 //// 221017 021 017 006 05
083400 2442N 08608W 8428 01563 0077 +177 +170 215016 017 012 004 01
083430 2442N 08609W 8434 01554 0079 +176 +171 217016 016 006 001 01

[Hammy]

It looks like the COC is trying to reform further east, but the pressure is not as as low as I would had thought, at least for now.

Could that wrinkle in the storm activity be the beginnings of a new center? Or is it more likely an eddy?

[NDG]

It looks like the COC is trying to reform further east, but the pressure is not as as low as I would had thought, at least for now.

Could that wrinkle in the storm activity be the beginnings of a new center? Or is it more likely an eddy?

Not sure, it wouldn't surprise me if a new center forms here just like it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't. To tell you the truth Colin looks worst than yesterday evening before I went to bed.

[Extratropical94]

Down to 925 mb

URNT15 KNHC 060844
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 35 20160606
083500 2442N 08611W 8429 01559 //// +171 //// 223015 017 009 002 01
083530 2443N 08613W 8428 01563 //// +173 //// 217015 016 010 001 01
083600 2443N 08614W 8562 01427 //// +177 //// 211015 016 010 002 01
083630 2443N 08616W 8731 01257 //// +185 //// 207014 016 006 000 01
083700 2443N 08618W 8909 01089 //// +196 //// 212013 014 008 000 01
083730 2444N 08620W 9108 00884 //// +202 //// 193011 015 008 000 01
083800 2444N 08621W 9232 00763 //// +198 //// 196010 012 010 004 01
083830 2444N 08623W 9253 00741 //// +199 //// 209011 013 010 004 01
083900 2445N 08624W 9255 00742 0079 +202 //// 212012 014 019 007 01
083930 2445N 08626W 9245 00750 //// +202 //// 205014 015 017 004 01
084000 2445N 08628W 9248 00745 //// +200 //// 197011 015 012 001 01
084030 2445N 08629W 9249 00743 //// +208 //// 192010 014 020 007 01
084100 2446N 08631W 9253 00743 0078 +209 //// 201010 012 023 009 01
084130 2446N 08633W 9248 00749 //// +210 //// 209011 012 010 001 01
084200 2446N 08634W 9250 00744 //// +210 //// 215014 015 006 001 01
084230 2446N 08636W 9249 00747 //// +214 //// 213015 015 009 001 01
084300 2447N 08638W 9249 00745 //// +215 //// 216014 015 008 001 01
084330 2447N 08639W 9249 00746 //// +215 //// 217014 015 006 001 01
084400 2447N 08641W 9249 00746 //// +215 //// 216013 014 009 002 01
084430 2448N 08643W 9249 00746 //// +215 //// 212014 014 009 002 01
$$

[NDG]

I'm thinking that the convection during the past few hours over the Yucatan and adjacent waters took out some of the southerly inflow from the storm, now that they are dying out it seems convection is firing up nicely again near the MLC.

[NDG]

Well, they split the difference. lol.

4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 6
Location: 25.2°N 87.4°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[johngaltfla]

And the latest advisory says it has intensified to 50 mph. Interesting.

[NDG]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT COLIN IS STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 87.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060854
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 36 20160606
084500 2448N 08644W 9249 00745 0069 +215 +212 212013 014 008 001 00
084530 2448N 08646W 9249 00746 0069 +215 +212 212014 014 011 002 00
084600 2448N 08647W 9249 00745 0069 +215 +211 211014 015 010 001 00
084630 2449N 08649W 9250 00745 0068 +215 +211 209015 015 010 001 00
084700 2449N 08651W 9248 00746 0069 +214 +212 209013 014 008 001 01
084730 2449N 08652W 9252 00742 0068 +215 +211 207013 014 006 002 00
084800 2449N 08654W 9250 00742 //// +212 //// 205012 013 008 002 01
084830 2450N 08656W 9249 00745 //// +212 //// 209013 013 007 000 01
084900 2450N 08657W 9246 00747 //// +211 //// 206011 012 007 001 01
084930 2450N 08659W 9250 00743 //// +214 //// 202012 013 009 001 01
085000 2451N 08701W 9249 00744 //// +209 //// 197011 012 011 001 01
085030 2451N 08702W 9248 00745 //// +206 //// 182010 012 009 001 05
085100 2451N 08704W 9253 00743 0076 +209 //// 200011 016 014 004 01
085130 2451N 08706W 9246 00744 //// +208 //// 199011 016 009 001 01
085200 2452N 08707W 9250 00740 0067 +214 +213 209011 013 009 001 01
085230 2452N 08709W 9250 00742 0067 +214 +212 210011 012 008 001 01
085300 2452N 08711W 9250 00743 0066 +219 +211 207012 013 010 001 00
085330 2452N 08712W 9248 00743 0066 +217 +209 207013 014 005 001 00
085400 2453N 08714W 9248 00743 0067 +215 +207 207014 014 009 002 00
085430 2453N 08716W 9249 00743 0067 +213 +207 209013 014 007 001 00

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060904
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 37 20160606
085500 2453N 08717W 9250 00742 0067 +212 +210 209012 013 006 001 01
085530 2453N 08719W 9249 00742 0066 +211 +209 210012 013 007 001 01
085600 2454N 08721W 9246 00745 0066 +214 +209 206012 012 007 001 00
085630 2454N 08722W 9248 00744 0066 +214 +211 199011 013 007 000 01
085700 2454N 08724W 9254 00738 //// +212 //// 202012 013 008 002 01
085730 2455N 08726W 9247 00745 //// +211 //// 198013 014 011 002 01
085800 2455N 08727W 9250 00740 0065 +214 +213 206015 015 010 001 01
085830 2455N 08729W 9248 00743 0065 +214 +212 214013 014 008 000 01
085900 2455N 08731W 9250 00741 0065 +215 +210 218013 013 006 001 00
085930 2456N 08732W 9248 00742 0065 +215 +211 227013 014 004 001 00
090000 2456N 08734W 9249 00742 0064 +215 +212 232013 014 006 001 00
090030 2456N 08735W 9249 00741 0064 +215 +211 231011 013 006 001 00
090100 2456N 08737W 9249 00740 0063 +216 +211 231011 011 012 002 00
090130 2457N 08739W 9254 00736 0063 +220 +209 228011 012 007 001 00
090200 2457N 08740W 9248 00741 0062 +219 +208 230011 011 014 002 00
090230 2458N 08741W 9248 00741 0063 +215 +211 231009 010 010 001 00
090300 2459N 08743W 9249 00741 0064 +214 +212 229009 010 004 001 01
090330 2500N 08744W 9249 00741 //// +211 //// 230009 009 007 001 01
090400 2501N 08746W 9249 00741 0064 +215 +210 223008 008 008 001 00
090430 2501N 08747W 9249 00741 0064 +215 +210 219008 008 010 001 00
$$

[NDG]

This is some of the strongest winds I have found on land so far, downtown St Pete airport:

Code: Select all

onditions at:   KSPG observed 06 June 2016  06:25 UTC
Temperature:   25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint:   22.8°C (73°F) [RH = 88%]
Pressure (altimeter):   29.89 inches Hg (1012.3 mb)
Winds:   from the S (180 degrees) at 37 MPH (32 knots; 16.6 m/s)
gusting to 44 MPH (38 knots; 19.8 m/s)
Visibility:   1.75 miles (2.82 km)
Ceiling:   1300 feet AGL
Clouds:   broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3800 feet AGL
Present Weather:   +RA BR  (heavy rain, mist)

[northjaxpro]

Currently getting the first significant rainband. Just had a windgust to. 38 mph.in a heavy squall. Picked up just under an inch in less than 15 minutes. This is just the start. It is going to be a long day and evening..

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060914
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 38 20160606
090500 2502N 08749W 9252 00738 0064 +215 +207 236007 008 010 001 00
090530 2503N 08750W 9248 00742 0064 +216 +208 228007 007 007 000 00
090600 2504N 08752W 9250 00740 0064 +217 +204 220008 008 011 001 00
090630 2505N 08753W 9249 00742 0064 +216 +209 227009 009 005 001 00
090700 2505N 08755W 9244 00747 0064 +211 +209 218009 010 009 001 01
090730 2506N 08756W 9250 00741 0065 +215 +208 218009 010 009 002 00
090800 2507N 08758W 9249 00741 0065 +214 +210 218008 009 009 001 00
090830 2508N 08759W 9247 00745 0065 +213 +211 217009 009 007 001 01
090900 2508N 08801W 9249 00742 0065 +214 +205 213009 009 009 002 00
090930 2509N 08802W 9250 00740 0065 +214 +208 209008 009 009 002 00
091000 2510N 08804W 9248 00741 0065 +215 +205 205009 009 006 001 00
091030 2511N 08805W 9250 00741 0065 +215 +205 217008 009 007 001 03
091100 2512N 08806W 9249 00741 0064 +215 +208 223008 008 006 000 00
091130 2512N 08808W 9249 00742 0065 +215 +209 219009 009 003 000 00
091200 2513N 08809W 9249 00739 0064 +213 +212 225009 009 011 002 01
091230 2514N 08811W 9250 00740 0065 +212 +212 223009 009 008 001 01
091300 2515N 08812W 9248 00741 //// +214 //// 224008 009 008 001 01
091330 2516N 08814W 9250 00740 0065 +214 +211 233007 008 005 000 00
091400 2516N 08815W 9249 00740 //// +210 //// 236008 009 006 000 01
091430 2517N 08817W 9251 00738 0064 +212 +209 228008 008 007 001 01
$$

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060924
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 39 20160606
091500 2518N 08818W 9249 00740 0063 +215 +209 220007 007 005 000 00
091530 2520N 08819W 9250 00738 0063 +215 +209 222007 007 009 001 00
091600 2521N 08820W 9248 00739 0062 +214 +212 220006 007 006 000 01
091630 2522N 08821W 9249 00738 0061 +214 +211 208006 007 010 001 05
091700 2523N 08822W 9250 00735 0060 +214 +210 205006 007 014 001 03
091730 2524N 08823W 9248 00739 0059 +215 +209 206006 006 014 001 03
091800 2525N 08825W 9248 00738 0059 +220 +207 206005 005 012 001 00
091830 2526N 08826W 9249 00737 0058 +220 +208 198003 005 014 000 00
091900 2527N 08827W 9249 00737 0059 +220 +207 201003 004 014 002 00
091930 2528N 08829W 9249 00737 0059 +220 +205 200004 004 012 001 03
092000 2529N 08830W 9248 00738 0059 +219 +206 201004 005 014 001 03
092030 2530N 08832W 9249 00736 0059 +216 +208 199004 005 014 001 03
092100 2531N 08833W 9250 00737 0060 +215 +211 189003 003 014 001 03
092130 2532N 08835W 9249 00737 0058 +215 +209 161002 003 014 001 03
092200 2533N 08836W 9249 00736 0058 +215 +210 169002 002 014 001 00
092230 2533N 08838W 9250 00736 0058 +219 +208 137002 002 014 001 00
092300 2534N 08839W 9248 00737 0058 +218 +210 133003 003 014 001 03
092330 2535N 08841W 9250 00736 0058 +218 +209 126002 003 014 000 00
092400 2536N 08842W 9248 00738 0058 +218 +208 100001 002 014 000 00
092430 2536N 08844W 9256 00731 0058 +219 +208 089002 003 014 000 03
$$

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060934
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 40 20160606
092500 2538N 08844W 9245 00740 0058 +219 +207 172003 003 /// /// 03
092530 2539N 08843W 9252 00733 0059 +220 +207 195003 003 014 001 03
092600 2540N 08842W 9248 00738 0059 +220 +206 195003 003 014 000 00
092630 2541N 08840W 9250 00736 0059 +220 +208 217003 004 014 001 03
092700 2542N 08839W 9249 00737 0060 +216 +210 212004 004 014 001 00
092730 2543N 08838W 9249 00737 0059 +220 +206 200004 005 014 001 03
092800 2544N 08836W 9249 00737 0059 +219 +206 196005 005 014 000 03
092830 2546N 08835W 9249 00739 0060 +215 +208 204005 005 014 001 03
092900 2547N 08834W 9249 00737 0060 +215 +207 200006 006 014 000 03
092930 2548N 08833W 9248 00739 0060 +215 +208 208006 006 014 000 03
093000 2549N 08831W 9249 00737 0060 +215 +207 208006 006 014 000 03
093030 2550N 08830W 9248 00739 0062 +215 +208 209007 007 014 000 03
093100 2551N 08829W 9250 00738 0062 +216 +206 202007 007 014 002 00
093130 2552N 08827W 9248 00741 0062 +217 +206 198006 007 014 001 00
093200 2553N 08826W 9247 00742 //// +214 +204 192006 008 009 001 01
093230 2554N 08825W 9253 00735 //// +213 //// 195007 007 014 001 01
093300 2555N 08823W 9247 00741 0062 +215 +212 192007 007 014 000 00
093330 2557N 08822W 9250 00737 0061 +216 +210 192007 008 014 001 03
093400 2558N 08821W 9248 00739 0061 +217 +207 201008 008 014 000 00
093430 2559N 08819W 9249 00738 0061 +218 +204 194008 008 008 000 03
$$

[Hammy]

As suspected the circulation is no longer closed, it's been open to the west already but no longer west wind either so this has essentially been sucked into the southerly flow to the east.

[jlauderdal]

This is really all you need to know about how disorganized this system is,"somewhere" isn't something you are going to see very often in a scientific write-up. However, it has some potential and the tornado threat is real...shows how powerful tropical systems are even weak.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
513 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

DISCUSSION

CURRENTLY - HIGHLY DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM COLIN REMAINS CENTERED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
100 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...COLIN CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 87.6 West. Colin is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected tonight through Monday. On this track, the center of Colin
is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area
Monday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast before Colin reaches the coast of
Florida.

Tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (300 km)
to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42003 to the northeast
of the center recently reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western Florida,
eastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through
Tuesday.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East coast within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Gulf coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon, and the
Atlantic coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the
watch area on Tuesday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions
of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT COLIN IS STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 87.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings
and watches may be required for parts of this area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 87.4 West. Colin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
today. A rapid northeastward motion is expected tonight and
Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach
the coast of the Florida Big Bend area this afternoon or evening,
move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia early
Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the United
states later on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slow strengthening is possible
during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas
through Tuesday.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East and Georgia coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area, as well as in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic
coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the watch
area on Tuesday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Colin remains poorly organized this morning. Surface observations
and data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
suggest that at least two small-scale circulation centers are
present, one near an intense burst of convection around 24.5N 85.5W
and the other well to the west-northwest near 25.5N 89W. The low
confidence initial position splits the difference between these two
features. The Air Force aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level
winds of 71 kt and estimated 60 kt surface winds on the SFMR
instrument. However, these winds were measured in the
aforementioned convection, and it is unclear how representative they
are. There is sufficient data to justify increasing the initial
intensity to 45 kt.

The cyclone appears to be moving faster, with the initial motion
now 015/12. The track forecast reasoning again has not changed from
the previous advisory. Over the next day or so, Colin should move
north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a
deep-layer trough over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a
ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. After that time, the
cyclone will become embedded in strong southwesterly flow associated
with a large baroclinic low over the eastern United States. The
track guidance has nudged northward since the previous advisory, and
the new forecast track, which lies near the consensus models, is
also nudged northward.

The poor organization and the presence of moderate vertical wind
shear suggest that significant strengthening is unlikely before
Colin makes landfall in Florida in less than 24 hours. The global
models forecast winds of near 50 kt as Colin moves over the Atlantic
and begins extratropical transition, and the latter part of the
intensity forecast is based on this guidance. The model guidance
forecasts that extratropical transition should be complete by about
72 hours.

It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 25.2N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 27.6N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 30.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 33.8N 76.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 08/0600Z 37.6N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 54.0N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven