ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060944
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 41 20160606
093500 2600N 08818W 9249 00739 0061 +218 +207 191008 008 014 001 00
093530 2601N 08817W 9248 00740 0061 +220 +207 191007 008 014 000 00
093600 2602N 08816W 9250 00739 0061 +220 +206 195006 007 007 000 00
093630 2603N 08814W 9249 00738 0060 +220 +202 204006 007 008 001 00
093700 2604N 08813W 9250 00737 0060 +220 +203 202006 007 011 002 03
093730 2605N 08812W 9248 00740 0061 +220 +206 202006 006 008 000 00
093800 2607N 08810W 9249 00739 0061 +220 +207 201006 007 008 001 00
093830 2608N 08809W 9248 00740 0061 +220 +207 204007 007 012 001 00
093900 2609N 08808W 9249 00740 0061 +217 +208 207007 007 011 001 03
093930 2610N 08806W 9249 00739 0061 +217 +208 207007 008 010 000 00
094000 2611N 08805W 9250 00738 0062 +217 +204 202006 008 008 000 00
094030 2612N 08804W 9248 00740 0063 +214 +203 189006 006 008 001 00
094100 2613N 08803W 9250 00739 //// +210 //// 190007 007 014 001 01
094130 2614N 08801W 9249 00740 //// +210 //// 196006 007 012 000 01
094200 2615N 08800W 9249 00740 0065 +210 +207 203006 007 012 001 01
094230 2616N 08759W 9249 00742 0066 +210 +202 195008 009 011 000 03
094300 2618N 08757W 9250 00741 0068 +209 +207 182009 009 014 001 05
094330 2619N 08756W 9248 00744 0068 +209 +206 182009 009 010 000 01
094400 2620N 08755W 9249 00742 0068 +210 +206 183009 009 010 000 00
094430 2621N 08753W 9250 00742 0068 +208 +203 185008 009 008 001 00
$$

[Nimbus]

Vigorous circulation further east can be seen on the IR imagery, near 85 degrees on the NW corner of the convective burst
True LLC must be exposed at the same latitude 25.2N moving NNE.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 060954
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 42 20160606
094500 2622N 08752W 9249 00744 0068 +208 +204 184009 009 006 001 01
094530 2623N 08751W 9248 00743 0068 +207 +205 192009 010 004 000 01
094600 2624N 08749W 9248 00745 0069 +208 +204 203009 010 009 000 01
094630 2625N 08748W 9250 00742 0068 +212 +202 205010 010 008 000 00
094700 2626N 08747W 9249 00744 0068 +214 +198 196011 011 010 001 00
094730 2628N 08745W 9248 00744 0068 +215 +195 198011 012 010 001 00
094800 2629N 08744W 9249 00744 0068 +215 +200 200011 011 005 000 03
094830 2630N 08743W 9248 00744 0069 +214 +206 205011 012 009 001 00
094900 2631N 08741W 9249 00745 0069 +215 +207 202012 012 005 001 00
094930 2632N 08740W 9250 00745 0070 +215 +204 194011 012 007 000 00
095000 2633N 08739W 9249 00745 0070 +213 +203 190010 011 005 000 00
095030 2634N 08737W 9250 00743 0070 +212 +201 183008 009 003 000 00
095100 2635N 08736W 9250 00744 0068 +215 +200 186009 009 004 000 00
095130 2636N 08735W 9248 00744 0068 +220 +189 183010 011 006 001 00
095200 2638N 08733W 9252 00742 0068 +220 +185 183009 010 004 000 00
095230 2639N 08732W 9248 00745 0069 +216 +190 180009 009 009 001 00
095300 2640N 08731W 9250 00743 0069 +215 +201 176010 010 010 002 00
095330 2641N 08729W 9248 00747 0068 +215 +200 184009 010 007 001 00
095400 2642N 08728W 9250 00744 0069 +215 +201 181009 010 007 001 00
095430 2643N 08727W 9249 00745 0070 +212 +204 169009 010 005 000 00

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061004
AF307 0203A COLIN HDOB 43 20160606
095500 2644N 08725W 9247 00746 //// +211 //// 159008 009 007 001 01
095530 2645N 08724W 9250 00744 0068 +214 +209 168009 009 007 001 00
095600 2646N 08723W 9248 00748 0069 +215 +210 163009 009 005 000 00
095630 2647N 08721W 9250 00744 //// +214 //// 160009 010 005 000 01
095700 2648N 08720W 9254 00739 //// +213 //// 164012 012 006 000 05
095730 2649N 08719W 9248 00747 //// +211 //// 168012 012 004 000 01
095800 2650N 08717W 9248 00746 //// +211 //// 167012 013 005 000 01
095830 2651N 08716W 9248 00748 //// +211 //// 169013 013 004 000 01
095900 2652N 08715W 9249 00745 0069 +214 +207 168012 013 005 000 00
095930 2653N 08713W 9248 00746 0069 +215 +206 168013 013 005 000 00
100000 2654N 08712W 9250 00745 0070 +214 +204 164012 013 005 000 00
100030 2655N 08710W 9249 00746 0072 +210 +203 160013 013 005 000 03
100100 2656N 08709W 9256 00741 0073 +213 +201 161012 014 006 000 03
100130 2656N 08708W 9242 00753 0072 +211 +201 166009 011 006 000 00
100200 2654N 08707W 9248 00747 0073 +212 +200 175009 009 005 000 00
100230 2653N 08706W 9249 00746 0073 +210 +202 184009 009 006 000 00
100300 2652N 08705W 9248 00749 0072 +210 +200 186009 010 006 000 00
100330 2651N 08704W 9251 00744 0071 +211 +204 197010 011 007 000 00
100400 2649N 08703W 9245 00750 0070 +216 +205 194011 012 007 000 00
100430 2648N 08702W 9250 00744 0070 +215 +206 191011 012 006 000 00

[Extratropical94]

Sorry for the infrequent posting, I've got to go. University is waiting.

[caneman]

So, if the center did reform east there is ample wind speed to call this a 65 mph Tropical storm, am I reading that right?

[Laser30033003]

well that wind speed is a gust not constant.....

[jlauderdal]

So, if the center did reform east there is ample wind speed to call this a 65 mph Tropical storm, am I reading that right?

not if its just a sampling from an intense tstorm..you need something sustained..we get 40-60 mph winds somewhere in florida almost everyday during the rainy season, severe tstorms generate high winds

[Chris_in_Tampa]

If that higher wind was near the center, perhaps. As is, with the NHC considering the center further away, they might say those SFMR values might be high due to heavy rain in the rain bands contaminating the readings and are not representative. Technically the SFMR is a 10 second surface wind estimate, though a lot of times if it is not rain contaminated the NHC goes with that value for 1 minute sustained winds.

[caneman]

The good news is that the forward speed has picked up to 14 mph which will help get it out of here quickly. I believe it was only 9 mph before.

[tropicwatch]

Not much wind to speak of but starting to get some pretty impressive rain.

Dew Point:
74 °F

Humidity:
98%

Precip Rate:
3.26 in/hr

Precip Accum:
2.56 in

Pressure:
29.8 in

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 5:54am CDT:

[NDG]

No signs of the the low pressure reforming closer to the deep convection on the second pass through the area of convection west of Key West.
Compared to yesterday afternoon, it is in worst shape, like I mentioned earlier.

[northjaxpro]

Well, there is an impressive convective blowup currently. I am guessing that it is occuring near the MLC. This is also probably where Recon may find the area of strongest winds. Already at 1.3 inches of rain at my locale. Currently have a heavy band rotating over my locale.

Expecting the worst of the weather after about 3:00 and continuing into the evening with Colin making landfall across North Florida.

[caneman]

I don't see Colin making landfall in North florida I'm ex pecting the usual Cedar Key landfall. All of the impacts will be up and down the west coast of Florida and then crossing over the state. In my opinion only.

[adam0983]

When should Boca Raton gets some rain from Tropical Storm Colin we are in a drought here and could use some rain.

[jlauderdal]

When should Boca Raton gets some rain from Tropical Storm Colin we are in a drought here and could use some rain.

some today and tomorrow...better chances for big rain weds thurs fri

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:04am CDT:

[northjaxpro]

Well caveman, in this case with the cyclone being asymmetric, the whole peninsula , with the exception of the extreme western panhandle , will be impacted with heavy rain and the threat for tornadoes. Center landfall in this case is not very relevant because all of the turbulent weathet is well removed on the eastern side of the cyclone. There will be some surge on the West Coast, but other than flood threat, quick spin-up tornadoes is my primary concern the next 12-20 hours.