ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061741
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 11 20160606
173130 2703N 08559W 8429 01536 0045 +188 +144 248023 024 014 000 00
173200 2702N 08557W 8426 01542 0052 +186 +157 243028 029 015 000 00
173230 2700N 08555W 8404 01569 0057 +176 +173 244028 029 016 000 00
173300 2659N 08554W 8444 01524 0057 +174 //// 246026 027 015 000 01
173330 2657N 08552W 8445 01524 0058 +174 //// 243026 027 011 000 05
173400 2656N 08549W 8438 01531 0059 +172 //// 247025 026 014 000 01
173430 2656N 08547W 8437 01531 0055 +177 +169 249027 027 016 000 00
173500 2655N 08545W 8425 01543 0053 +185 +155 253026 027 017 000 00
173530 2653N 08543W 8436 01536 0055 +182 +162 251025 026 017 000 00
173600 2652N 08541W 8438 01533 0059 +177 +171 248026 027 017 000 00
173630 2651N 08539W 8441 01530 0058 +177 +171 245025 025 017 000 00
173700 2650N 08537W 8439 01533 0060 +177 +170 244026 026 018 000 00
173730 2649N 08534W 8438 01532 0060 +178 +168 243026 026 018 000 03
173800 2648N 08532W 8440 01532 0059 +180 +164 244026 027 017 000 00
173830 2647N 08530W 8440 01535 0059 +180 +166 243027 027 017 000 00
173900 2646N 08528W 8439 01535 0059 +181 +170 241026 027 017 000 00
173930 2645N 08526W 8441 01533 0060 +181 +170 239026 026 018 000 00
174000 2644N 08524W 8440 01535 0062 +180 +173 234026 026 018 000 00
174030 2643N 08521W 8438 01537 0063 +180 +172 235025 025 017 000 00
174100 2642N 08519W 8440 01538 0064 +180 +170 235024 025 018 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
100 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 86.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings
or watches may be required for parts of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
estimated near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.5 West. Colin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
by this evening, and a rapid northeastward motion is expected
overnight and Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is
forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area late
this afternoon or evening, move across portions of Florida and
southeastern Georgia early Tuesday morning, and move near the
southeastern coast of the United States later on Tuesday. However,
it's important to note that the strongest winds and heaviest rains
are well removed from the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts
in rainbands located well to the east and southeast of the center.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles (400 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas
through Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast from Florida to South Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Brief squalls with winds to near tropical storm force will
be moving through portions of the Florida Keys this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions reached the west coast of the Florida
peninsula this morning, and will continue through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area
along the Atlantic coast by early Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061751
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 12 20160606
174130 2641N 08517W 8438 01539 0064 +180 +167 234023 023 017 000 00
174200 2640N 08515W 8440 01539 0068 +177 +173 234024 024 017 000 00
174230 2638N 08513W 8442 01537 0068 +175 +173 235025 025 018 000 00
174300 2637N 08511W 8438 01541 0070 +172 //// 233024 025 017 000 05
174330 2636N 08509W 8441 01537 0069 +174 +173 233024 025 018 000 00
174400 2635N 08507W 8438 01542 0071 +173 +172 234023 024 018 000 00
174430 2634N 08504W 8441 01538 0070 +176 +167 234023 023 018 000 03
174500 2633N 08502W 8440 01541 0069 +180 +170 232024 024 018 000 00
174530 2632N 08500W 8441 01541 0071 +178 +169 230024 026 020 000 00
174600 2631N 08458W 8438 01543 0073 +175 +175 227026 026 022 000 03
174630 2630N 08456W 8440 01542 0071 +176 +174 227025 026 022 000 03
174700 2629N 08454W 8438 01544 0070 +180 +171 227024 025 021 000 00
174730 2628N 08452W 8442 01539 0069 +180 +171 229025 026 023 000 00
174800 2627N 08450W 8441 01539 0068 +181 +168 231029 031 024 000 00
174830 2625N 08448W 8440 01543 0070 +181 +165 232031 032 023 000 00
174900 2624N 08446W 8441 01542 0070 +180 +165 232031 031 022 000 03
174930 2623N 08444W 8441 01542 0071 +180 +164 233031 031 024 000 00
175000 2621N 08443W 8440 01543 0073 +177 +168 232031 031 024 000 00
175030 2620N 08441W 8438 01546 0074 +176 +169 230031 031 026 000 03
175100 2618N 08439W 8441 01544 0077 +172 //// 227031 031 027 000 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061801
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 13 20160606
175130 2617N 08437W 8438 01547 0076 +175 +169 230033 033 028 000 00
175200 2616N 08435W 8441 01545 0078 +175 +172 229033 034 027 000 00
175230 2614N 08434W 8439 01552 0081 +174 +173 230030 033 027 000 03
175300 2613N 08432W 8440 01553 0085 +174 +171 227030 032 027 000 00
175330 2612N 08430W 8438 01556 0087 +170 //// 231033 034 026 000 01
175400 2610N 08428W 8436 01559 0089 +173 +170 232035 035 028 000 00
175430 2609N 08426W 8440 01555 0088 +175 +168 230035 036 027 000 00
175500 2608N 08424W 8441 01555 0089 +175 +173 226037 038 026 000 00
175530 2606N 08423W 8444 01549 0090 +171 //// 227036 038 028 000 01
175600 2605N 08421W 8435 01556 0084 +167 //// 228037 038 028 000 01
175630 2604N 08419W 8438 01545 0077 +173 //// 227037 038 027 000 01
175700 2603N 08418W 8432 01555 0079 +171 //// 223039 040 027 000 01
175730 2602N 08416W 8432 01554 0080 +170 //// 221040 041 027 000 01
175800 2601N 08415W 8434 01553 0081 +170 //// 222043 043 028 000 01
175830 2601N 08413W 8433 01555 0083 +171 +165 224043 043 027 000 00
175900 2600N 08411W 8435 01554 0084 +172 +162 224043 043 026 000 00
175930 2559N 08409W 8433 01556 0082 +174 +164 226044 045 025 000 00
180000 2558N 08407W 8434 01556 0085 +171 +169 221042 043 024 000 00
180030 2558N 08406W 8432 01560 0087 +168 //// 219042 042 024 000 01
180100 2557N 08404W 8432 01560 0086 +170 +170 218043 043 023 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061811
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 14 20160606
180130 2556N 08402W 8434 01556 0083 +172 +168 219042 043 025 001 00
180200 2556N 08400W 8435 01555 0082 +174 +168 220042 043 027 000 00
180230 2555N 08359W 8433 01558 0083 +174 +172 220043 044 029 000 00
180300 2554N 08357W 8431 01560 0084 +173 +168 219042 044 030 000 00
180330 2554N 08355W 8436 01555 0089 +166 //// 218041 042 029 001 01
180400 2553N 08354W 8433 01561 0087 +173 +165 219042 042 030 000 00
180430 2552N 08352W 8430 01564 0087 +174 +163 220042 043 031 000 00
180500 2551N 08350W 8431 01564 0087 +174 +167 213040 042 032 000 00
180530 2551N 08348W 8433 01559 0088 +169 //// 215042 043 032 000 01
180600 2550N 08347W 8434 01561 0087 +176 +164 219043 043 032 001 00
180630 2549N 08345W 8430 01566 0086 +181 +147 220044 044 034 000 00
180700 2549N 08343W 8434 01561 0085 +182 +145 220043 044 033 001 00
180730 2548N 08341W 8433 01562 0085 +180 +149 222046 047 033 001 00
180800 2547N 08340W 8434 01561 0087 +176 +155 222046 047 034 001 00
180830 2547N 08338W 8433 01562 0091 +172 +152 219046 046 032 001 00
180900 2546N 08336W 8436 01561 0093 +170 +156 220045 046 031 001 00
180930 2545N 08334W 8433 01565 0092 +172 +149 220045 046 032 000 00
181000 2544N 08333W 8433 01565 0093 +171 +148 220044 045 032 000 00
181030 2544N 08331W 8432 01566 0095 +170 +153 220044 044 032 001 00
181100 2543N 08329W 8433 01566 0097 +167 +155 219042 043 030 001 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

keywest getting storm now let see if get south fl main land

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061821
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 15 20160606
181130 2542N 08328W 8433 01567 0098 +167 +150 219041 042 030 000 00
181200 2542N 08326W 8432 01569 0099 +170 +148 220042 042 029 000 00
181230 2541N 08324W 8434 01566 0099 +168 +151 221042 043 029 000 00
181300 2540N 08322W 8432 01570 0100 +167 +151 222044 044 034 004 00
181330 2540N 08321W 8432 01570 0107 +156 //// 222044 044 033 005 01
181400 2539N 08319W 8434 01567 0105 +155 //// 223045 045 035 008 01
181430 2538N 08317W 8433 01569 0104 +158 //// 224045 045 035 009 01
181500 2537N 08315W 8432 01569 0103 +160 //// 222044 045 035 008 01
181530 2537N 08314W 8433 01569 0102 +162 //// 222045 046 034 007 05
181600 2537N 08312W 8429 01572 0098 +168 +168 219045 046 /// /// 03
181630 2539N 08312W 8432 01571 0100 +168 +167 217044 044 034 007 00
181700 2541N 08312W 8433 01569 0102 +164 +163 217045 045 037 006 00
181730 2543N 08312W 8430 01576 0107 +160 //// 218045 045 037 005 05
181800 2545N 08312W 8430 01576 0112 +153 //// 218044 045 037 005 01
181830 2547N 08312W 8433 01567 0104 +159 //// 219044 045 037 005 01
181900 2549N 08312W 8433 01566 0101 +161 //// 218045 046 037 006 01
181930 2551N 08312W 8434 01565 0103 +157 //// 219045 046 036 007 01
182000 2553N 08312W 8433 01566 0108 +151 //// 219045 045 040 006 05
182030 2554N 08311W 8433 01566 0094 +169 +168 218044 045 038 007 00
182100 2556N 08311W 8433 01565 0090 +175 +162 218043 045 036 000 00
$$
;

46 kt FL, 38 kt SFMR. This is FAR from the last center position.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting note. Local newscast stated that this was the earliest that there were three named storms (June 5). But, really? After that rather annoying pest Bonnie who just wouldn’t leave and the sheared mess that Colin is. I guess we can be thankful though. There is a lot of energy that Colin could have fed off of if it weren’t for the strong shear. It also appears that a lot of energy is transferring to the front north and west of the system. This could prove to be more problematic for the coasts of the Carolinas in rainfall. The GFS and Euro differ quite a bit for total rainfall on the OBX. GFS has around two inches while the Euro has around eight (quite a difference). He is moving fast and will race tomorrow. There is a flash flood watch for eastern NC. We did have around a foot of rain last week from Bonnie the pest. Hoping the GFS is right for the rain, Euro forecast could make a mess. By tomorrow the sun will shine even in NC where we will wave goodbye as he flies by. My biggest prediction will be that that the season over statements will start in a month or so. Mid- June through July is typically a slow period just as the early season lopsided messes that occur fairly often. And as most mets will tell you this early season activity has little bearing on the rest of the season.

[tolakram]

Euro now shows Big Bend landfall at 999MB, a little stronger than yesterday.

[tolakram]

I could be wrong but it appears the LLC is consolidating somewhat as it nears the Big Bend area. Both GFS and Euro show some strengthening just prior to landfall so perhaps this makes sense.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061831
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 16 20160606
182130 2558N 08311W 8432 01569 0092 +174 +164 218041 042 037 000 00
182200 2600N 08311W 8434 01566 0094 +170 +167 217041 041 035 000 00
182230 2602N 08311W 8433 01567 0097 +167 //// 215042 043 035 000 01
182300 2604N 08311W 8433 01566 0096 +168 +166 216041 041 036 000 00
182330 2606N 08311W 8433 01565 0096 +165 //// 217038 040 036 000 01
182400 2608N 08311W 8433 01565 0096 +165 //// 216037 038 036 000 01
182430 2610N 08311W 8432 01565 0095 +164 //// 215037 037 035 003 01
182500 2612N 08311W 8433 01564 0099 +158 //// 213036 037 035 004 01
182530 2614N 08311W 8431 01564 0102 +153 //// 213037 038 035 004 01
182600 2616N 08311W 8434 01561 0100 +156 //// 214040 041 030 005 01
182630 2618N 08311W 8440 01554 0097 +159 //// 214041 041 027 005 01
182700 2619N 08311W 8432 01563 0097 +160 //// 214041 042 024 006 01
182730 2621N 08311W 8432 01561 0094 +160 //// 214043 043 025 005 01
182800 2623N 08311W 8432 01561 0094 +160 +158 210043 043 025 005 00
182830 2625N 08311W 8433 01559 0094 +160 //// 208043 043 026 005 01
182900 2627N 08310W 8430 01563 0095 +161 +160 208043 043 026 003 00
182930 2629N 08310W 8433 01561 0094 +163 +158 207040 042 025 002 00
183000 2631N 08310W 8429 01564 0091 +166 +164 203038 040 026 002 00
183030 2633N 08310W 8440 01555 0088 +173 +161 201037 038 027 001 00
183100 2635N 08310W 8430 01566 0089 +175 +157 201036 036 027 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[Sanibel]

Key West radar shows we are going to get a roof test in a few hours if it doesn't dry up on approach.

[MGC]

Colin is a mess of a TS. Everyone stay safe that is in Colin's path. Never know when a tornado can drop out of a squall......MGC

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061841
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 17 20160606
183130 2637N 08310W 8433 01563 0090 +173 +157 204037 038 030 001 00
183200 2639N 08310W 8434 01561 0091 +170 +161 202039 040 031 001 00
183230 2641N 08310W 8432 01563 0090 +170 +163 198041 041 033 000 03
183300 2643N 08310W 8433 01561 0090 +168 //// 191041 042 033 000 01
183330 2645N 08310W 8432 01563 0089 +170 +165 184044 045 034 001 00
183400 2647N 08310W 8434 01559 0088 +169 +164 185046 046 040 000 00
183430 2649N 08310W 8433 01560 0086 +176 +161 188046 047 040 000 00
183500 2651N 08310W 8433 01561 0085 +178 +161 188047 047 038 001 00
183530 2653N 08310W 8433 01561 0089 +170 //// 185046 047 039 000 01
183600 2655N 08310W 8435 01560 0087 +171 //// 176050 053 036 000 01
183630 2657N 08310W 8442 01554 0086 +175 +168 180053 054 033 000 00
183700 2659N 08310W 8433 01561 0080 +179 +166 178054 055 035 000 00
183730 2701N 08309W 8440 01550 0083 +177 +167 173055 056 037 000 00
183800 2704N 08309W 8429 01561 0086 +170 +170 169060 063 036 001 00
183830 2706N 08309W 8440 01552 0092 +156 //// 164059 063 035 005 05
183900 2708N 08309W 8425 01561 //// +150 //// 168055 058 037 017 01
183930 2710N 08309W 8439 01550 0086 +167 //// 166052 053 035 005 01
184000 2712N 08309W 8424 01569 0084 +172 +162 168052 054 033 006 00
184030 2714N 08309W 8435 01557 0093 +163 //// 166058 060 032 003 01
184100 2716N 08309W 8432 01564 0092 +170 +154 166057 057 032 003 00
$$
;

63 kt FL, 40 kt SFMR.

[boca]

Here on the SE coast of Florida we haven't had a drop of rain here,that might change come tomorrow.

[TheStormExpert]

Seriously, even for Early-June Colin is pathetically hideous for a Tropical Cyclone!

This tweet earlier from Josh Morgerman with iCyclone just tells the tale of the Atlantic for the past 3-4 seasons now.

Josh Morgerman
@iCyclone

You know you're in the Atlantic when... The official advisory position has to split difference between two competing sub-swirls. #COLIN

[TheStormExpert]

Here on the SE coast of Florida we haven't had a drop of rain here,that might change come tomorrow.

And with Dewpoints being in the upper 70's to almost 80 degrees for the past almost 24hrs. that's amazing!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061851
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 18 20160606
184130 2718N 08309W 8429 01568 0093 +168 +156 166054 056 029 003 00
184200 2720N 08309W 8430 01564 0089 +171 +162 167054 056 031 001 00
184230 2723N 08309W 8436 01561 0090 +175 +161 169054 056 029 001 00
184300 2725N 08309W 8433 01561 0089 +174 +163 171053 054 030 000 00
184330 2727N 08309W 8433 01564 0093 +169 +162 167052 054 029 001 00
184400 2729N 08309W 8433 01564 0096 +165 +161 168049 051 030 000 00
184430 2731N 08309W 8434 01563 0096 +163 +161 171048 048 029 001 00
184500 2733N 08309W 8432 01565 0095 +170 +156 173048 048 029 002 00
184530 2735N 08308W 8433 01565 0095 +170 +152 172047 048 029 001 00
184600 2737N 08308W 8433 01565 0092 +175 +150 171048 049 030 000 00
184630 2739N 08308W 8433 01564 0091 +175 +147 171050 050 029 001 00
184700 2741N 08308W 8433 01564 0093 +175 +143 171050 050 028 001 00
184730 2743N 08308W 8433 01564 0093 +173 +143 172049 050 028 001 00
184800 2745N 08308W 8433 01565 0094 +172 +144 172049 050 030 001 00
184830 2747N 08308W 8433 01563 0093 +173 +143 173050 051 029 000 03
184900 2749N 08308W 8433 01564 0092 +175 +143 174051 052 031 000 00
184930 2751N 08308W 8433 01564 0092 +174 +144 174051 052 031 000 00
185000 2754N 08308W 8433 01563 0091 +171 +145 174051 052 033 000 00
185030 2756N 08308W 8431 01565 0090 +172 +149 176052 052 034 001 00
185100 2758N 08308W 8433 01562 0090 +175 +152 179052 053 035 001 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

I don't see any consolidation. Center remains poorly-defined. Doesn't really qualify for TS status, though there may be a small area of 35-40kt winds in some of those heavier squalls SE of the weak center. Plane found max 10-sec winds at the surface to near 40 kts. 1-min winds would be less than that, perhaps below TS strength. No chance of strengthening prior to "landfall" (not much to make landfall as far as a center).