ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Solid band of rain now moving across North and Northeast. Florida. A few of these cells contain gusts up tropical storm force. Looking carefully to see if any rotation are in these bands.

[CrazyC83]

What would be the best classification?

It definitely does not look like a TC no longer, and it is definitely not extratropical. Yet the distant convection is still strong and there seems to be closed isobars around the naked center (unless it is part of a larger trough axis)?

[MGC]

Could very easily be post-tropical at 11pm. Circulation is really getting stretched out.

Yeah, it doesn't look very tropical any longer.

Did Colin ever look very tropical? Looks like the pathetic swirl should be ashore soon. Put this thing out of our misery already......MGC

[SeGaBob]

I'd go with Subtropical if it were me.

[Cdavis]

In Flagler county getting good rain and some good wind gusts. Nothing to call home about but good beer drinking weather watching on my back porch

[Cdavis]

Had a possible tornado within a mile distance from me this afternoon (according to local meteorologists). What's the tornado threat tonight in the Saint Augustine/ Palm Coast area tonight?

[SeGaBob]

northjaxpro what's it like down there? It seems a good band is going through Jacksonville. Also the last light rain band is moving through my area now.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop.

[TheStormExpert]

Make landfall already!

[tolakram]

An elongated strange trip it's been.

live ir loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-83&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[northjaxpro]

northjaxpro what's it like down there? It seems a good band is going through Jacksonville. Also the last light rain band is moving through my area now.

Yes a moderate to strong rainband is currently ongoing at my locale. I had a gust to 28 mph within the past few minutes. Probably have about another hour orso of this band as it moves through and by midnight I think it will be a wrap with Colin's rain here in Jax. Looks like I will end up with at least between 3- 4 inches of rain at my weather station . I check the final rally in the morning.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

...COLIN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Colin will
move onshore in the Florida Big Bend area shortly, then move across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia through early Tuesday
morning, and move near or over the southeastern coast of the United
States Tuesday. However, it's important to note that the strongest
winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast after Colin moves into the Atlantic
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across western to
northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and coastal areas of the
Carolinas through Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area along the west coast of the Florida peninsula for the
next several hours. Tropical storm conditions have likely begun
over portions of the warning area along the Atlantic coast of
Florida, and these conditions will spread northward and
northeastward over the remainder of the warning area overnight and
on Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will remain possible across parts of
central and northeast Florida early tonight, and perhaps near
coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

Surface observations and shortwave infrared imagery suggest that
the center of Colin is just offshore of the coastline in the Big
Bend region of Florida, and the system should make landfall very
soon. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy
rainfall from the center of Colin, however, it is important to not
focus on the time or location of landfall, or on the exact
forecast track. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding
have been affecting much of Florida and these conditions should
spread northward and northeastward over the southeast United States.

The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, under the assumption that
wind speeds near this value are still being experienced at some
locations along the coast. Global models indicate that Colin will
deepen when it moves over the Atlantic, probably due to baroclinic
energetics. Although Colin is expected to lose tropical
characteristics within 24 hours, the models do not show it fully
embedded within a frontal zone, i.e. extratropical, until about 48
hours. The official forecast goes with this scenario.

The initial motion estimate is 050/19. Colin should accelerate
northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern
United States for the next day or two. After that, the forward
speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a
couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic.

It should be noted that Colin will probably lose its status as a
tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.
In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 29.8N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 32.9N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 36.5N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/1200Z 41.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 09/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z 54.0N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 56.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[northjaxpro]

Also, current barometric pressure reading currently at 29.71 and falling. COC just west /southwest of here, that is if one still calls it oneat this point.

[Hurricaneman]

My Opinion is this is a strong tropical wave with a name

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

Absolutely getting pummeled here in Gainesville, FL, for most of the last 2 hours with thunderstorms though little wind. Earlier today we got 2". Probably close to 5" total now. Quite impressive here. The center is nearing shore due west of here and will go by to the NW within a couple of hours.

[Steve]

Absolutely getting pummeled here in Gainesville, FL, for most of the last 2 hours with thunderstorms though little wind. Earlier today we got 2". Probably close to 5" total now. Quite impressive here. The center is nearing shore due west of here and will go by to the NW within a couple of hours.

Nice Larry. GFS had y'all in a band or strip of weather across the state on various runs, so it seemed like that's where the action would be inland. Stay safe.

[sponger]

http://www.news4jax.com/weather

Final threat heading in towards NE Florida. Should be on us in a hour or so. Guess I will wait up for the show!

[LarryWx]

Absolutely getting pummeled here in Gainesville, FL, for most of the last 2 hours with thunderstorms though little wind. Earlier today we got 2". Probably close to 5" total now. Quite impressive here. The center is nearing shore due west of here and will go by to the NW within a couple of hours.

Nice Larry. GFS had y'all in a band or strip of weather across the state on various runs, so it seemed like that's where the action would be inland. Stay safe.

Thanks. It is pretty surreal here with the frogs croaking very loudly.

It has been coming down very heavily after having lightened up a little earlier. I'm still hearing thunder.

[Steve]

Looks like a late burst on satellite just to your (my bad your NE). Radar doesn't look that extreme but there are some cooling cloudtops. Jax metro could see some isolated rotation but I guess that's already understood in a TS warning.

[LarryWx]

Looks like a late burst on satellite just to your (my bad your NE). Radar doesn't look that extreme but there are some cooling cloudtops. Jax metro could see some isolated rotation but I guess that's already understood in a TS warning.

No problem, Steve. It refuses to stop here. We've been still getting bursts of heavy rain interspersed amongst lighter rains and there is still thunder in the vicinity. It is like a firehose that doesn't want to stop!