2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[floridasun78]

For early next week, the long range model solutions are becoming
more persistent in advecting a large area of tropical moisture to
the FL Keys and the southern tip of the peninsula under increasing
southerly-southwesterly flow. This is mainly due to a mid level
trough that develops over the eastern US and digs southward into
the Gulf, shifting the deep layer winds across the area to a more
southerly flow. The only difference between ECMWF and GFS is how
far north the moisture may reach. GFS seems to keep the core of
the enhanced moist air mass meandering the southern tip of the
sunshine state, while ECMWF pushes the moisture further north and
into Central Florida by late Monday. Regardless of the final
outcome, model blends show wide spread showers and rain coverage
across the entire CWA, with increasing chances of thunderstorm
activity for the beginning of next week. The current forecast
reflects this trend with a wider spread/higher pops for Monday
and Tuesday.
THEIR NOT THING TROPICAL IN Discussion NEXT WEEK only about trough

[cycloneye]

New thread is now open for this possible area.Go here

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS has yet another closed low at 240 hours in the GOM. Has it moving into Mexico.

[Hammy]

GEM/Euro/GFS seem to want to develop yet storm in the Gulf in about a week, and it's been showing up now for a few days intermittently. There seems to be more spread on track though, the GFS into Mexico, Euro into Texas, and GEM into Florida.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is sending yet another storm into the Eastern Gulf in the long-range.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GFS is sending yet another storm into the Eastern Gulf in the long-range.

Likely a convection feedback issue, takes an almost 100% identical track too.

[stormwise]

93l One of the EC ens run may be of interest to Hammy.

[thundercam96]

Are we looking at anything past 93L/TD3?

[RL3AO]

Are we looking at anything past 93L/TD3?

Maybe something in the BOC/Southern GOM, but I wouldn't hold my breath. My guess in the MJO will move on leaving the Atlantic in a less favorable phase for TCs. Maybe a quieter few weeks ahead.

[MetroMike]

Saw a discussion post from this Monday afternoon from the Tampa Bay weather service about a low pressure area predicted by the GFS and NAM forming near Florida this week. Anyone have the graphics?

[thundercam96]

Saw a discussion post from this Monday afternoon from the Tampa Bay weather service about a low pressure area predicted by the GFS and NAM forming near Florida this week. Anyone have the graphics?

From TBW

The other thing to note at the surface is the area of low
pressure that models show developing along the trough on
Wednesday. Both the GFS and the NAM show this low developing off
the west coast of the state, while the ECMWF show it developing
off the east coast a bit later. With little consensus, there is
low confidence on the evolution of this feature at this time, but
regardless, high rain chances will remain in place through the end
of the week.

[bamajammer4eva]

Saw a discussion post from this Monday afternoon from the Tampa Bay weather service about a low pressure area predicted by the GFS and NAM forming near Florida this week. Anyone have the graphics?

Tampa and Tallahassee NWS both mention Low in the gulf on the models but anything I've seen wasn't impressive at all with lowest shown as a weak 1010 mb meandering around Florida on NAM and GFS. Maybe they are referring to the fact that the pressure is lower in this area in general for the rest of the week and it could be something to watch out for in future model runs in case they latch on to something.

[stormwise]

originally from CA, MJO +wave.


GFS models

[floridasun78]

originally from CA, MJO +wave.


GFS models

what you try say?

[northjaxpro]

Folks, pay attention to the tail end of the monsoonal gyre from Colin down in the Gulf of Hondurus. Xefinite rotation in that area currently. GFS run earlier today has a Low showing up in the extreme SE GOM in 48 hours. Something to watch carefully.

[thundercam96]

I wonder how many models will pick up this trend... Its a short timeframe though.

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian sends a low across south Florida from the gulf into the Atlantic. NAM sends weak low to Louisiana from the gulf

[Hurricaneman]

I wonder how many models will pick up this trend... Its a short timeframe though.

a new thread has been made for this area

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS model seems to be showing a tropical wave in the future coming off Africa and maybe cross the Atlantic. It is out in the 200+ hour range. Probably just reading it wrong but a lot of vorticity with it.

[RL3AO]

GFS and Euro both hinting at something in the Bahamas in the day 7 to 9 range. Looks like one of those typical coastal lows that tries to slowly develop.