Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
218 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High moisture content will continue across the region
through tonight. Saharan air layer will continue to affect the
region through Monday. A slightly drier airmass will encompass
the local region early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers with isolated strong thunderstorms
developed this afternoon across the western interior and northwest
sections of puerto rico. Also...the El Yunque streamer developed
affecting the San juan metropolitan area. Urban and stream flood
advisories were issued for both areas. This activity was primarily
associated with the combination of low level moisture with strong
daytime heating. this activity is expected to dissipated near
sunset.

Hazy skies are expected to continue through at least Monday as
Saharan air continues to affect the local region. A drier air mass
is expected to gradually encompass the region. As a result...chances
of rainfall will decrease somewhat next few days.
However...available low level moisture will combine with daytime
heating to produce scattered showers with thunderstorms mainly
each afternoon across the western interior and northwest sections
of puerto rico.

&&

.AVIATION...Periods of MVFR conditions with mountain obscurations
will affect TJMZ until 04/22Z with only vicinity showers expected
across the rest of the local flying area. Low level winds will
continue mostly from the East around 15 knots with some higher gusts
until 04/22Z diminishing to 10 to 15 tonight. Saharan dust continues
to affect the flying area tonight, reducing somewhat the
visibilities at times.

&&

.MARINE...Winds up to 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet are expected today
across the offshore Atlantic waters. As a result, small craft
operators should exercise caution. Elsewhere...winds up to 15
knots and seas up to 5 feet are expected. Beachgoers should be
cautious across the local beaches due to a moderate risk of rip
currents.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 91 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 88 80 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
434 AM AST SUN JUN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Saharan dust is still present over the local area but
expected to slowly diminish today, still causing hazy skies, and
expected to significantly improve by Monday. There is also a mid
and upper level trough developing just to the west of the local area,
but it will mostly affect the Leewards. However, isolated to
scattered showers still expected due to the above average total
moisture, Isolated thunderstorms across the NW quadrant of PR in
the afternoon. Surface high pressure will continue to promote
easterly to ESE winds for the next few days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated brief showers were observed across the
local area during the overnight hours. Even though there is
Saharan dust over the area and a ridge in the mid and upper
levels, there is plenty of moisture to promote passing showers
embedded in the trades through the early morning hours. Having
said that, there is an upper trough developing to the west of the
local islands and there is enough moisture to cause some shower
and thunderstorm development across the western and northwestern
portions of PR. The forecast only called for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon because even though there is an upper
trough expected, most of the instability will be to the east of
the local islands.

Moisture decreases a bit on Monday and guidance suggests a lesser
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing moisture again on
Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a tropical wave approaches,
which will increase the shower activity once again. There will be
also more instability for Wednesday associated with an upper low
expected to be to the west of the local islands. However, from
Thursday on through the end of the week, the available moisture is
expected to decrease significantly, with an upper ridge over the
local area, promoting stable conditions and only locally induces
showers with a few brief showers at night and early morning.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at all TAF sites through 5/16z. SHRA
development over Puerto Rico aft 5/16z, and this may result in brief
MVFR conds at JBQ and JMZ. ISOLD TSRA possible near JBQ/JMZ. Low
level winds will continue ESE around 10-15 knots with sea breeze
variations.


&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect winds at 10 to 20 knots and seas up
to 5 feet today across the local waters. Small craft operators
should exercise caution across the nearshore Atlantic waters due
to winds up to 20 knots. Winds up to 15 knots and seas up to 5
feet elsewhere. Beachgoers should be cautious across the local
beaches due to a moderate risk of rip currents.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 79 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 80 88 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST SUN JUN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...upper trough east of the local area will move west
through Monday...maintaining unstable atmoapheric conditions.
Tropical wave near 55 west late this morning will approach the
local area late tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Once again...scattered showers with isolated strong
thunderstorms developed this afternoon across the western interior
and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. An Urban and stream flood
advisory was issued for this area. This activity was primarily
associated with the combination of low level moisture with strong
daytime heating. This activity is expected to dissipated near
sunset.

For next few days...an upper level trough currently over the
Anegada passage will continue to move west and will maintain
unstable atmospheric conditions across the region. This
feature...in combination with descent low level moisture...will
continue to promote the development of showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the western interior and northwest sections of Puerto
rico. In addition...a tropical wave currently near 55 west...will
approach the local area late Tuesday into Wednesday. At this
time...most of the active weather is anticipated to pass mainly
south of Puerto rico.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
most the local flying area. SHRA and possible TSRA are expected
across interior...western and northwest Puerto Rico...inducing brief
periods of MVFR conditions and mountains obscurations across TJBQ
and TJMZ until 05/22Z. Low level winds will continue ESE around 10-
15 knots with higher gusts...decreasing to around 10 knots after
05/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect winds at 10 to 20 knots and seas up
to 5 feet tonight across the local waters. Small craft operators
should exercise caution across the nearshore Atlantic waters due
to winds up to 20 knots. Winds up to 15 knots and seas up to 5
feet elsewhere. Beachgoers should be cautious across the local
beaches due to a moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 79 90 / 20 20 30 30
STT 80 88 80 87 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
514 AM AST MON JUN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over the local region will fill/weaken
through midweek. Mid to Upper level ridge will dominate from late
Tuesday into Friday. Two tropical wave will move across the
Eastern Caribbean on Tuesday/Wednesday and Sunday. Overall fair
weather pattern will prevail across the islands most of the week...
except when tropical waves enhance the potential for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier than normal air mass will move across the
local region today. This will help to limit the shower activity
across most of the area today. Some afternoon convection over
Northwest Puerto Rico still possible due to diurnal heating and
sea breeze convergence. Southeasterly flow will continue to favor
above normal temperatures in the leeward side of the islands...
especially the North and West Puerto Rico where max temperatures
will range between 90-93 degrees.

A tropical wave will move across the Eastern Caribbean between Tuesday
Afternoon and Wednesday. This will likely enhance the shower
activity across the islands and the surrounding waters. Although
the bulk of the convection associated with this wave will remain
south over the Caribbean Waters...some thunderstorms will develop
across the local waters and portions of the islands.

Fair weather conditions are forecast between early Thursday to
Saturday due to the influence of the mid level ridge.
Then...another tropical wave will cross the Eastern Caribbean
between Sunday and Monday next week. Once again...organized
convection associated with the wave is possible early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local flying area through
06/18Z. SHRA and possible TSRA developing across interior...western
and northwest PR...causing VCSH/VCTS and possible brief periods of
MVFR conds across TJBQ and TJMZ at some point between 06/18Z and
06/22Z. Low level winds will continue ESE around 5-10 knots through
06/12Z...increasing to 10-15 knots thereafter with sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will remain between 10-20 knots most of the week.
Seas will continue between 3-5 feet over the next 5-7 days. No
major changes are expected in the marine conditions over the next
several days. Thunderstorms are possible across the regional waters
Tuesday/Wednesday as a tropical wave moves across the Caribbean
Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 20 30 30 40
STT 88 81 87 80 / 20 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
158 PM AST MON JUN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave will approach the local area Tuesday.
Upper trough will continue to linger across the region through
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very dry conditions prevailed this afternoon across
the local area. No shower activity was observed. Very dry air at
mid level of the atmosphere suppressed any development of showers
today. Rest of this afternoon...limited shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected...mainly over the northwest section of Puerto
Rico.

A tropical wave currently across the Lesser Antilles...will
continue to move west and will approach the local islands late
Tuesday into Wednesday. A significant increase in shower and
thunderstorms activity is expected between Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday as this tropical wave interacts with the upper trough.
For Thursday and Friday...dry weather conditions are expected to
prevail...before another tropical wave approaches the local area
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected across the local
flying area through 07/12Z. After 07/12Z showers will increase
across the Leeward islands...USVI and TJSJ as a tropical wave
approaches to the region. SHRA/TSRA will develop across interior...
western and northwest PR...causing MVFR or even VFR conditions TJBQ
and TJMZ between 07/18Z and 07/22Z. Low level winds will continue
ESE around 10 knots through 07/12Z...increasing to 10-15 knots
thereafter with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Across the coastal waters seas up to 5 feet and winds
up to 20 knots are expected. Thunderstorms are expected to
increase across the regional waters Tuesday/Wednesday as a
tropical wave moves across the Caribbean Waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 91 / 30 30 40 40
STT 81 87 80 87 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
508 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough west of the region will move
westward into the Central Atlantic during the next few days.
A tropical wave will move across the islands through Wednesday...
producing showers and thunderstorms across the local area.
Then..a mid to upper level ridge will build close to the area
from Wednesday to Friday. Fair weather pattern will then prevail
across the islands from midweek to the early part of the weekend.
The next tropical wave will cross the local region between Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery as well as surface analysis maps
indicated a tropical wave near 64 West this morning. High moisture
content associated with the wave will pool across the area later
today...increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
Instability associated with the upper trough west of the area will
also help to enhance the convection across the islands today and
tonight. Moisture and instability will remain high through Wednesday...
therefore showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the
surrounding waters and portions of the islands.

Fair weather pattern is forecast to return to the islands late
Wednesday through at least Saturday as a mid level ridge will
build close to the Northeast Caribbean Region. In addition...low
to moderate concetrations of Saharan Dust will accompany this
drier air mass...leading to hazy skies and limited shower activity.

Then...another tropical wave will cross the Eastern Caribbean
between Sunday and Monday. This will likely result once again in
organized convection across the regional waters and portions of
the islands as the wave passes by.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR cond expected overnight. After 07/12Z SHRA
to increase across the Leeward islands...USVI and TJSJ as a tropical
wave approaches the region. SHRA/TSRA expected across
interior...western and northwest PR...with possible MVFR cond at
TJBQ and TJMZ between 07/18Z and 07/22Z. Low level winds continue
ESE at 5-10 kts thru 07/12Z...increasing to 10-15 knots with higher
gusts and sea breeze variations thereafter. Winds alf bcm SSW 15 kt
at FL190 and increase to 45-50 kt by FL400 as jet moves around
eastern side of upper level low.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will remain between 10-20 knots most of the week.
Seas will continue between 3-5 feet over the next 5-7 days. No
major changes are expected in the marine conditions over the next
several days. Thunderstorms are possible across the regional waters
today and Wednesday as the tropical wave moves across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 60 60 60 10
STT 88 80 88 81 / 50 70 70 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
150 PM AST TUE JUN 7 2016

.UPDATE...Upper level trough over Hispaniola will move further
westward while filling during the next few days. A tropical wave
across the Eastern Caribbean will move westward across the region
through Wednesday...producing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms across the local islands. A mid to upper level
ridge will build over the region late Wednesday to Friday inducing
a fair weather pattern across the local islands from Thursday to
the upcoming weekend. The next tropical wave will reach the local
region late Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar detected isolated to scattered
showers across northeastern sections of Puerto Rico. Not significant
precipitation was detected elsewhere across the region so far this
afternoon. Latest surface analysis as well as satellites images
this afternoon...depicted a tropical wave near 65 West. Most of
the convection associated with the wave remains well to the east
of the wave axis. Model guidance suggests that the bulk of the
moisture associated with the wave will reach the local islands
tonight and early Wednesday, increasing the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. After the passage of the wave...a mid to upper
level ridge is expected to build across the northeast Caribbean...
bringing a relatively fair weather pattern across the region from late
Wednesday through at least Saturday. This relatively dry air mass will
be accompany by moderate concentration of Saharan dust. Another
tropical wave will reach the forecast area late Sunday and
Monday increasing again the chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief periods of MVFR conditions are expected across
the leeward taf sites until 08/00Z as a tropical wave moves
across that area. Mostly VFR conditions expected across the USVI
taf sites this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
interior...western and northwest PR...with possible MVFR cond at
TJBQ and TJMZ between 07/18Z and 07/22Z. SHRA/TSRA will increase
across the USVI and PR taf sites tonight as a tropical wave moves
across.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will remain between 10-20 knots most of the week.
Seas will continue between 3-5 feet over the next 5-7 days. No
major changes are expected in the marine conditions over the next
several days. Thunderstorms are possible across the regional waters
tonight and Wednesday as the tropical wave moves across the local
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 91 / 60 60 10 20
STT 80 88 81 88 / 70 70 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST WED JUN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build across
the forecast area from the east, as trough aloft across the central
Caribbean continues to weaken. A surface high pressure across the
central Atlantic will continue to promote east southeast winds
during the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms associated
with a passing tropical wave will continue to prevail across the
local islands today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
prevail across the local islands today as a tropical wave continues
to move across the eastern Caribbean. Therefore, continue to expect
showers and thunderstorms across the south and east slopes of Puerto
Rico as well as the USVI and regional waters during the morning hours.
As the wave moves west, shower and thunder activity will decrease
across the eastern half of the forecast area in the afternoon but
increasing across western Puerto Rico.

As the wave moves away tonight and the ridge aloft continues to
build across the forecast area, low level moisture will erode.This
will result in a generally fair and mainly stable weather pattern
Thursday through at least the end of the weekend. However, locally
induced showers and thunderstorms still expected each day. East
southeast winds during the next few days will result in warm to hot
temperatures along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico. Hazy skies
also expected Thu-Fri as SAL reaches the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical wave passage is once again expected early next week. This
will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Tropical wave is crossing the flying area today. This
will result in SHRA/TSRA affecting the USVI and Leeward Islands
terminals at times. Then...SHRA activity will spread over PR later
this morning. As a result...Brief MVFR conds are possible through
Early this afternoon. Conds will improve across the flying area
late this afternoon as the wave move away of the local islands. E
to SE winds at 10-20 kt expected thru the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will remain between 10-20 knots most of the week.
Seas will generally continue between 3-5 feet. No major changes
are expected in the marine conditions over the next several days.
Thunderstorms expected across the regional waters today as the
tropical wave moves across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
STT 89 79 87 79 / 60 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
208 PM AST WED JUN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Wave over the Mona Passage will continue to
move away from the area the rest of this afternoon. Dry air will
move across the region overnight into Thursday. Next tropical wave
will move across the region Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Shower and thunderstorm activity affected the local
area early this morning. Better activity occured over the U.S.
Virgin Islands mainly over Saint Thomas and across the southeast
and east sections of Puerto Rico. This activity was associated
with a Tropical Wave which was located this afternoon over the
Mona Passage. This afternoon...some showers were noted over the
Caribbean coastal waters with other showers developing across the
western interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico.

A dry air mass is starting to move across the local area. This dry
air will continue to encompass the local region. Some Saharan Dust
will affect the local region through at least Friday. Therefore...limit
shower activity with hazy skies are expected through the weekend.
Next Tropical Wave will approach the local area Sunday night into
Monday. At this time...the best active weather is expected for
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief MVFR conds are possible through ealy this
afternoon. Conds will improve across the flyingarea late this
afternoon as the wave move away of the local islands. E to SE
winds at 10-20 kt expected thru the forecast period.


&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected.
Small Craft should exercise caution.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 91 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 87 79 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST THU JUN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build across
the forecast area from the east, as trough aloft across the central
Atlantic continues to weaken. Ridge aloft will then hold through at
least early next week. A surface high pressure across the central
Atlantic will continue to promote east southeast winds during the
next few days. The aforementioned pattern will result in a generally
fair and mainly stable weather pattern with warm to hot temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rain-free conditions and mostly clear skies prevailed
across the local islands overnight and early this morning. Winds
were light and variable with coastal temperatures in the upper 70s
to the low 80s.

As the ridge aloft continues to build across the forecast area, low
level moisture will erode. This will result in a generally fair and
mainly stable weather pattern today through at least the upcoming
weekend. However, locally induced showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms are expected each day. East southeast winds during
the next few days will continue to result in warm to hot temperatures
mainly along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico. Hazy skies are
also expected today and Friday as SAL continues to prevail across
the eastern Caribbean.

Next tropical wave passage is expected on Monday. This will increase
once again the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the local
islands. As this wave moves away late Monday, a drier air mass
will move in across the eastern caribbean to combine with a mid
level ridge and result in fair weather much of the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR cond exp across the flying area thru the
forecast period. Limited shower activity expected in the flying
area...however Saharan Dust particles mar reduce the visibilities
around 6SM at times. SE winds at 10-20 kt below FL250.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected across the regional
waters during the next few days with seas generally 3-5 feet and
winds up to 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 92 79 / 0 10 10 10
STT 90 79 90 78 / 0 10 10 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST THU JUN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to Upper level Ridge will continue to dominates
the local area through Sunday. A Tropical Wave will approach the
local area Monday. Saharan Air Layer will remain across the area
through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny...hazy and hot conditions prevailed
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. No shower
activity was observed over land areas. Very dry weather conditions
are expected to continue through at least Sunday...as a mid to
upper level ridge dominates the local area. In addition...Saharan
Air Layer continues to affect the local region. As a result...hazy
conditions has prevailed across the region. This SAL is expected
to move away from the area late Friday.

Next tropical wave is expected to approach the local area
Monday...increasing somewhat the chances of showers and possible
thunderstorms across the local islands. After the passage of the
wave...another area of dry air with Saharan Dust is expected with
a return to a hot and dry weather conditions for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR cond exp across the flying area thru the
forecast period. Limited shower activity expected in the flying
area...however Saharan Dust particles mar reduce the visibilities
around 6SM at times. SE winds at 10-20 kt below FL250.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. Small Craft should exercise caution.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 91 / 10 10 10 10
STT 79 90 78 88 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST FRI JUN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level ridge will maintain a dry and stable air
mass aloft. This will result in limited shower activity across the
local islands through the end of the week. The next tropical wave
will move across the Eastern Caribbean on Monday...increasing
somewhat the shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.
Fair weather pattern will return to the islands on Tuesday as
Tropical Wave moves into the Central Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hot temperatures and hazy skies will prevail once
again today. Southeasterly flow will continue to push hot air into
the local area over the next few days. Ridge pattern will hold
through Sunday...maintaining the stable conditions across the
islands.

The next weather maker is expected early next week. A tropical
wave is forecast to move across the local region on Monday. This
will increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms over
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Breezy conditions are
likely from Monday to Wednesday. Another pulse of Saharan Dust
will reach the local islands on Tuesday...persisting through
Thursday/Friday. The onset of the Saharan Air Layer will also help
to limit the shower activity across the islands. Therefore... fair
weather pattern will prevail most of the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area through the forecast period. Limited...if any shower activity
is expected as dry air with Saharan Dust particles remain over the
local area...which will cause haze. The visibility may be reduced to
below 10SM at times but it is still expected to be P6SM. SFC winds
from the E to ESE at 5-10kt early this morning... increasing to 10-
15kt after 10/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas are expected to diminish slightly during
the weekend. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt next week due to the
wave passage. Seas are forecast to remain below 5 feet through at
least midweek next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 92 78 / 10 10 10 20
STT 88 80 88 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST FRI JUN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
At upper levels, a mid to upper level ridge will dominate the
local weather conditions. At Low levels, the next tropical wave
will move across the Eastern Caribbean by Monday. Saharan Dust
Particles will continue through at least Saturday, the next event
is expected on Tuesday.

.DISCUSSION...
In general, the ridge aloft will result in stable conditions with
limited shower activity the rest of today and overnight. However,
brief showers could developed across the northwestern sections
late in the afternoon. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow
Saturday with little or no shower activity in the morning.
Showers/t-storms are possible across the interior and western
sections during the afternoon hours. A southeasterly wind flow
will continue to bring hot air from the Caribbean Waters,
resulting in above normal temperatures across the islands.
Therefore, expect maximum temperatures between upper 80s and mid
90s during the weekend.

The chance of shower/thunder activity will increase late Sunday
and Monday as the ridge aloft erodes and a tropical wave moves
across the eastern Caribbean. The next Saharan air mass is
expected on Tuesday, as a result dry and rain-free conditions are
possible during that period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected at all TAF sites through the forecast period.
An isolated SHRA still possible in and around JMZ/JBQ till 10/22z.
ESE winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected through at least the
upcoming weekend. Winds and seas are expected to diminish slightly
during the weekend. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt next week due
to the wave passage. Seas are forecast to remain below 5 feet
through at least midweek next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 78 91 / 10 20 20 30
STT 80 88 79 88 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
429 AM AST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will hold across the northeastern
Caribbean...while a weak tutt low and associated trough will linger
across the tropical Atlantic just northeast of the Northern Leeward
islands through Monday. This upper level feature will induce a weak
low level trough which will move across the region today through Sunday.
Surface high pressure ridge spread across the northeast and central
atlantic will support light east to southeast trade winds across the
region. Winds are expected to slightly increase on Sunday as a weak
tropical Wave will enter the Eastern Caribbean then move across the
region late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak low level trough expected to move across the
region today. This may create sufficient instability and combine
with local And diurnal effects to support isolated to scattered
showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms mainly across parts of
the northwest interior sections of Puerto Rico. However with the
limited moisture advection today...along with stable conditions
aloft and the presence of suspended dust particulates...expect the
activity to be of short duration. Most of the islands should experience
mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures with some areas forecast to
reach the low 90s once again today.

By Sunday and Monday as previously mentioned...A Tropical wave
with axis now near 56 degrees west will enter the Eastern Caribbean.
Based on present location and recent model guidance...this wave
and associated moisture should move across or just south of the region
Sunday night Through Monday. As a result expect an increase in low
level moisture and instability across the forecast area. However
by Tuesday and for most of next week expect another surge of Saharan
dust with Hot and dry conditions expected to prevail once again.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across the local flying area
through the forecast period. Limited shower activity is expected
this morning as dry air will prevail over the local area. SFC winds
expected to be from the East at around 5-10KT until 11/13Z increasing
to 10-15KT after 11/13Z with sea breeze variations. SHRA/TSRA expected
across NW PR...causing at least some VCTS/VCSH at TJBQ and TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected to continue through
most of the weekend. Winds and Seas are expected to diminish today
through early Sunday. However winds will increase slightly late Sunday
through Monday following the passage of the Tropical wave. Seas are
forecast to remain below 5 feet through at least midweek next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 20 10 30 30
STT 88 79 88 81 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
156 PM AST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
At upper levels, a weakening mid to upper level ridge will dominate
the local weather conditions during the rest of the weekend. At
low levels, the next tropical wave will move across the Eastern
Caribbean late Sunday into Monday. The next Saharan Air mass is
expected to move over the region on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In general, little or no shower activity was observed over land as
a ridge aloft continues to limit shower activity. However, some
showers moved inland over the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern
sections of PR. The ridge aloft will continue to promote a fair
and stable weather pattern through at least late sunday.
Meanwhile, shower/thunder activity can be expected this afternoon
across the interior and western sections of PR, as well as across
the San Juan Metropolitan Area. Chance of showers/thunders will
increase late Sunday into Monday as the ridge aloft continues to
erode and a tropical wave moves across the eastern Caribbean.

A southeasterly wind flow will continue to bring hot air from the
Caribbean Waters, resulting in maximum temperatures between the
upper 80s and mid 90s across some sections of PR and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. The next Saharan air mass is expected on Tuesday. As a
result, dry and rain-free conditions continue to be are possible
during that period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected at all TAF sites through the forecast period.
SHRA/TSRA expected in and around JMZ/JBQ till 11/22z with brief
MVFR conds and mountain obscurations. ESE winds 10 to 15 knots
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions expected to continue the rest of the
weekend. Winds and Seas are expected to diminish the rest of today
through early Sunday. However winds will increase slightly late
Sunday through Monday following the passage of the Tropical wave.
Seas are forecast to remain below 5 feet through at least midweek
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 92 / 20 30 30 30
STT 79 88 81 87 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridge aloft extends across the region
from the northwest Caribbean. Tutt low continues to linger and
extends across the Lesser Antilles from the Eastern Atlantic.
Surface high pressure ridge extends southwest across the East
Atlantic to just northeast of the forecast area..while a weakly
induced low level trough continues to shift westward across the
region. A tropical wave continues to cross the Lesser Antilles
and will move across the Eastern Caribbean later tonight through
Monday. An extensive area of suspended saharan dust and dry airmass
trails the tropical wave. This is expected to spread across the
region by Tuesday and linger during most of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few light showers were noted over the coastal waters
during the overnight and early morning hours. No precipitation was
observed observed over land areas as mostly dry and stable condtions
prevailed. mostly sunny skies can be expected during the morning...becoming
partly cloudy in the afternoon...diurnally and locally induced showers
develop mainly across parts of the interior and northwest sections
of Puerto Rico.

The tropical wave with axis just east of the Lesser Antilles will
enter and move across the eastern caribbean later tonight through
Monday. Satellite imagery showed convection associated with wave
being sheared northwards by tutt which extends across the Lesser
Antilles. However expect the tropical wave to eventually bring an
increase in low to mid level moisture across the region later tonight
and Monday. This will increase the chance for enhanced convection
across the coastal waters and portions of the islands by early
Monday morning and during the afternoon.

As previously mentioned...extensive area of saharan dust was noted
trailing this wave...so expect rapid drying and limited showers
and thunderstorm activity by Tuesday and during the remainder of
the work week. In addition...low level winds are to become more
southerly by Tuesday and the will also bring hotter and drier
conditions to the islands. Temperature are so far expected to
reach the low 90s in urban areas and lower elevations along northern
Puerto Rico and in the upper 80s across the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across most of the
local flying area until at least 12/16Z as dry air will prevail over
the region. SFC winds expected to be from the East at around 5-10
knots early this morning increasing to 10-15 knots after 12/13Z.
After 12/16Z SHRA/TSRA will redevelop over the western interior of
PR with mountain obscurations and MVFR/IFR conditions til 12/22Z.
For TNCM and TKPK...VFR will prevail until around 12/15Z. After
12/15Z clouds and SHRA from a tropical wave will approach the area
with some MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...Seas 5 feet or less across the local waters with winds of
10 to 15 knots and occasional gusts. Winds and Seas may slightly increase
later tonight through Monday with the passage of the Tropical wave.
Please refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast issued by WFO
San Juan PR for additional info concerning the local Seas.

There is a Moderate risk of rip currents across portions of the
north facing coasts of PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 92 80 / 30 30 30 10
STT 89 81 88 81 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
143 PM AST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge pattern aloft will intensify, as an upper
level trough across the Lesser Antilles weakens. A surface high
pressure across the eastern Atlantic will continue to promote a
moderate east southeast wind flow during the next few days. A
weak tropical wave will continue to move across the Caribbean
waters late tonight and into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rain-free conditions and mostly clear skies prevailed
across the local islands this morning and early in the afternoon.
Winds were east southeast at 15 mph or less with sea breeze
variations. Coastal temperatures were in the upper 80s to the low
90s.

The potential for passing showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the USVI and the eastern third of Puerto Rico as well as the
Caribbean waters will increase late tonight and into Monday as a
weak tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. Its associated
moisture will then combine with local effects and diurnal heating
to result in locally induced showers and thunderstorms over and
Northwest of the Cordillera Central Monday afternoon. As the wave
moves away late Monday, and the ridge aloft continues to intensify
across the forecast area, a slight decrease in low level moisture
is expected. This will result in a generally fair and mainly stable
weather conditions through at least the end of the workweek. However,
locally induced showers and thunderstorms still expected each day.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail thru tonight. A few SHRA will
develop near TJMZ and TJBQ later this afternoon. This may result in
brief MVFR CIGS. Then...SHRA and TSRA will increase across the
flying area after 13/06Z as tropical wave approaches from the east.
Winds will continue from the SE to S at 10-20 kt below FL250.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected over the next
few days. Winds of 10-15 knots and seas of 3-5 feet will
prevail across the regional waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 80 93 / 30 30 20 20
STT 81 88 81 88 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
351 AM AST MON JUN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will remain across the region
until the middle of the week. The ridge will be replaced by an upper
level low by Thursday. A surface high pressure across the central
Atlantic will continue to induce a moderate east southeast low
level wind flow during the next several days. Moisture associated
with a weak tropical wave will move mostly across the Caribbean
waters today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated isolated to
scattered showers moving west northwest across the Caribbean
waters...the USVI and across the eastern sections of Puerto Rico
overnight and early this morning. This moisture was associated
with a weak tropical wave passing just south of the USVI and
Puerto Rico this morning. This moisture is expected to combine
with daytime heating...seas breeze convergence and other local
effects to produce isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across western and northwest sections of Puerto Rico
This afternoon. After the wave passage...the upper level ridge is
then expected to remain as the main weather feature across the
forecast area Tuesday and through the end of the week. This
feature is expected to maintain a relatively fair and stable
weather pattern across the region. A Saharan air Layer is also
expected to move into the local region tonight and through the
next several days...causing higher than normal temperatures across
the local islands. However, locally induced showers and
a few thunderstorms are still expected each afternoon over
western sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail across the region durg prd.
Brief MVFR at TKPK and TNCM due to tropical wave and associated sct-
bkn CIG and SHRA vcnty. Isold-Sct passing SHRA also btwn Ern PR and
the USVI til 13/14z. Brief mtn top obscr ovr Ern PR due to passing
low clds and SHRA. Btw 13/16Z-13/22z expct incr clds and SHRA w/psbl
isold TSRA ovr Wrn PR with brief MVFR conds at TJMZ and TJBQ. SFC
Winds will be LGT/VRB til 13/14Z BCMG fm SE at 10-15 kt aft. l/lvl
wnd fm se-s blo FL200.

&&

.MARINE...Quiet marine conditions will remain across the regional
waters with seas of 2 to 4 and winds up to 15 knots. There is a low
risk of rip currents across most beaches of Puerto Rico...Vieques...
Culebra and the U.S. Virgin islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 93 80 / 30 20 20 20
STT 88 81 88 81 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
150 PM AST MON JUN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge pattern aloft will intensify, as an upper
level trough across the Lesser Antilles weakens. A surface
high pressure across the eastern Atlantic will continue to
promote a moderate east southeast wind flow during the next
few days. A weak tropical wave will continue to move away
from local area throughout the rest of the day. Fair weather
expected with warm to hot temperatures and hazy skies at
least Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A generally fair and mainly stable weather pattern
is expected to prevail through at least the end of the workweek,
as the aforementioned weak tropical wave moves away, and a mid
to upper level ridge pattern continues to intensify. Although a
cap inversion and mid-level dry air will prevail during the next
few days, locally induced convection will remain possible each
day. In addition, warm to hot temperatures will continue across
the local islands but especially along the northern slopes of
Puerto Rico as an east southeast wind flow continues to prevail.
Hazy skies are also expected as SAL continues to spread across
the eastern Caribbean.

An increase in low level moisture is expected Friday and into
the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough develops northeast
of the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across most of the TAF sites
thru the forecast period. However...brief MVFR conds possible
with SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon near TJMZ and TJBQ. After
13/22Z... shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish across
the flying area as tropical wave moves away from the region
tonight. SSE winds at 15-30 kt will prevail below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected over the next
few days. Winds of 10-15 knots and seas of 2-4 feet with
occasional seas of 5 feet will prevail across most of the
local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 80 91 / 10 10 10 20
STT 81 88 81 86 / 20 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
420 AM AST TUE JUN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will remain as the main weather
feature promoting a fair and stable weather pattern across the
region until at least Thursday. By Friday...the ridge is expected
to be replaced by an upper level low. A surface high pressure
across the north eastern Atlantic will continue to induce a
moderate east southeast low level wind flow during the next
several days...resulting in warmer than normal temperatures and
hazy skies until at least Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated only a couple of
isolated showers across the Caribbean waters overnight and early
in the morning. Elsewhere across the region...not precipitation
was detected as the region remains under the influence of an
upper level ridge. This feature will continue as the main weather
feature across the northeast Caribbean until at least Thursday.
However, the limited low level moisture will combine with the
strong daytime heating, sea breeze convergence and other local
effects to produce isolated to scattered showers and a couple of
thunderstorms each afternoon along the northern slopes of Puerto
Rico. The east southeast low level wind flow will continue to
promote warmer than normal temperatures especially along the
northern coastal municipalities of Puerto Rico. Hazy skies are
also expected as SAL continues to spread across the eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds across all TAF sites and local flying area
thru the fcst prd. ISOLD SHRA FEW-SCT LYRS...FL020...FL050 til
14/14Z. Otherwise fair weather skies. Flight VIS >6SM but slight
HZ aloft aft 14/16Z due to suspended Saharan dust particulates.
Sfc wnd fm ESE overnight at 5-10 KT across USVI and
TNCM/TKPK...LGT/VRB ovr PR bcmg 10-15kts aft 14/14z with sea
breeze variations developing. VCSH psbl at TJBQ and TJMZ btw
14/18Z-14/22z. No sig operational impacts attm.

&&

.MARINE...Quiet marine conditions will remain across the regional
waters with seas of 2 to 4 and winds up to 15 knots. There is a low
risk of rip currents across most beaches of Puerto Rico...Vieques...
Culebra and the U.S. Virgin islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 91 80 / 10 10 20 20
STT 88 81 86 79 / 10 20 20 20