2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Nothing in the 5 day outlook.

Their usually isn't in June.

[CaliforniaResident]

Nothing in the 5 day outlook.

Their usually isn't in June.

We are well past the average date for the first EPAC storm. Last year at this time, we had Blanca, a powerful cat 4 that brought remnants moisture as far north as central California. This year, we can't even muster a weak TS yet (TD 1 was very weak considering how powerful the storms in the same region were in the previous 2 years).

Here's another indirect indicator that I'm observing first hand right here.
SST in San Diego were in the mid to upper 70s most of LAST summer.
Right now, they are in the low 60s and the coast hasn't seen the sun in days due to the marine layer (which is common in June) but it seems even stronger than normal.

The EPAC is behaving very La Nina-esque even though we just got to neutral. I imagine it will even get more La Nina like in behavior as we slide into a true La Nina within the next 3 months.

[Yellow Evan]

Nothing in the 5 day outlook.

Their usually isn't in June.

We are well past the average date for the first EPAC storm. Last year at this time, we had Blanca, a powerful cat 4 that brought remnants moisture as far north as central California. This year, we can't even muster a weak TS yet.

Here's another indirect indicator that I'm observing first hand right here.
SST in San Diego were in the mid to upper 70s most of the summer.
Right now, they are in the low 60s and the coast hasn't seen the sun in days due to the marine layer.

The EPAC is behaving very La Nina-esque even though we just got to neutral. I imagine it will even get more La Nina like in behavior as we slide into a true La Nina within the next 3 months.

2009 had 20 storms and didn't see its first storm till June 22. And yes we had Blanca at this point last year, but it's 1 year out of many in the historical record.

There is a marine layer in California right now due to June Gloom. Typical of this time of year, although more common during La Ninas. SST's off of California (which are above normal BTW) aren't a great long-term indicator of EPAC hurricane success

We are in a La Nina base state most likely. However, this isn't the first Nina we ever had. While it is not impossible we see the quietest season on record, I would not count on it. Most Nina's with a +PDO background (1984, 1985, 1988, 1989 being the main ones) have around 15 storms at least.

[stormwise]

Outlook is near normal its to early to speculate a major bust in the forecast in this basin.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has two systems beginning next week.

[Yellow Evan]

EPS support also increasing for 1 maybe 2 tropical cyclones in the EPAC next week. Most likely the GFS and ECMWF are in disagreement over the timing of a Kelvin Wave of some sort, hence why the GFS isn't showing anything.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECWF same deal here, showing 2 systems, the first that brushes Jalisco, and the second that hits Michocan. EPS support increasing and CFS (2009, rather than 2015 GFS) ensemble support is their, so most likely the GFS is underdoing genesis since that's what the modern era of the GFS likes to do. 12z UKMET has development of the first but further west, but only goes out seven days.

[stormwise]

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

UKMET genesis potential fields supports a TC in the same general area, looks likely the the forecast T numbers are mixed up on the plot the 5.0 should be on the tight isobars system.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has a cane.

[Kingarabian]

NHC needs to a yellow marker. Euro has this a cane by Friday.

[cycloneye]

Here we go!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the coast
of southeastern Mexico around the middle of next week. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this
system as it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could develop south of the coast of
southeastern Mexico around the middle of next week. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this
system as it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

Euro is very aggressive in developing this. Idk what's going on with the GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

Idk what's going on with the GFS.

It did this last year too with a few systems. Ignacio comes to mind as one.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could develop south of the coast of
southeastern Mexico around the middle of next week in association
with a tropical wave that is currently moving into the eastern
Pacific Ocean from Central America. Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for gradual development of this system later next
week while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[gatorcane]

Idk what's going on with the GFS.

It did this last year too with a few systems. Ignacio comes to mind as one.

18Z GFS still has nada

[Kingarabian]

Good on the NHC for ignoring the GFS.

[stormwise]

GFS models the lpa and vort on the spaghetti ens, just not developing it atm.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0305 UTC SUN JUN 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the far eastern North Pacific.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted north of
07N between 84W and 93W. This tropical wave will be one to watch
with interest over the next several days as forecast guidance
suggests low pressure developing early next week south of
Mexico with the potential for tropical development.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Latter on not related to the above post there looks to a a good signal for the first C-PAC storm of the season in the last week of the month.

[cycloneye]

From 10:05 AM UTC discussion.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W to the south of 17N. The
northern part of the wave is moving through Guatemala.
Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 11N to 15N between 92W and 99W. This tropical wave will be
one to watch with interest during the next several days.
Forecast guidance suggests that a low pressure center may
develop early next week to the south of Mexico, with the
potential for development into a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast
of southern Mexico in a couple of days in association with a
tropical wave that is currently located south of Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves westward or west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown