2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS still with weak tropical/subtropical development somewhere off the SE U.S. Coast in about 7-9 days. Let's see what future runs show, along with the Euro. Wind Shear could very well be a player in limiting development again but it's too early to tell.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS seems to be taking a weak TD into FL/GA. Hmmm.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS seems to be taking a weak TD into FL/GA. Hmmm.

Weakens upon approach which can be questionable with the Gulf Stream, but interestingly strengthens rapidly upon leaving the SC Coast on approach towards the Canadian Maritimes in the Long-Range.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS seems to be taking a weak TD into FL/GA. Hmmm.

Weakens upon approach which can be questionable with the Gulf Stream, but interestingly strengthens rapidly upon leaving the SC Coast on approach towards the Canadian Maritimes in the Long-Range.

Yeah I seen that. Still need to see more runs to believe it though and see the Euro come on board.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS seems to be taking a weak TD into FL/GA. Hmmm.

Weakens upon approach which can be questionable with the Gulf Stream, but interestingly strengthens rapidly upon leaving the SC Coast on approach towards the Canadian Maritimes in the Long-Range.

Yeah I seen that. Still need to see more runs to believe it though and see the Euro come on board.

This mornings 00z Euro run hints very slightly of something but we need to see future runs for sure.

[Alyono]

MU isn't a weak TD

It is probably a decent TS. Look at the strong pressure gradient

[tarheelprogrammer]

Weakens upon approach which can be questionable with the Gulf Stream, but interestingly strengthens rapidly upon leaving the SC Coast on approach towards the Canadian Maritimes in the Long-Range.

Yeah I seen that. Still need to see more runs to believe it though and see the Euro come on board.

This mornings 00z Euro run hints very slightly of something but we need to see future runs for sure.

We shall see soon.

[tarheelprogrammer]

MU isn't a weak TD

It is probably a decent TS. Look at the strong pressure gradient

I was being conservative tends to pan out for us non METS

[TheStormExpert]

MU isn't a weak TD

It is probably a decent TS. Look at the strong pressure gradient

Into NE Florida it's a Weak TD at best, but exiting the Carolinas it is likely no doubt a Strong TS.

[TheStormExpert]

May even need to watch the Bay of Campeche in 7-9 days as well according to the 12z GFS.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF is showing nothing pretty much in the same area at the same time. So, probably not much to see here moving along.

[NDG]

12z Euro does show the potential for tropical or subtropical development with the trough dropping down east of the US east coast with plenty of vorticity and good UL conditions, but it still early in the game to know for sure since this is in the 7-10 day range which is still in the fantasy land.

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: 12z Euro does show the potential for tropical or subtropical development with the trough dropping down east of the US east coast with plenty of vorticity and good UL conditions, but it still early in the game to know for sure since this is in the 7-10 day range which is still in the fantasy land.

True we will see over the next few days. I think MDR has a chance to produce a storm by the end of this month as well.

[Alyono]

EC is showing development, just east of the MU

[RL3AO]

Looks like the classic east coast/Bahamas set up with a low developing near the end of a front and left there to slowly try to gain (sub)tropical characteristics. We will see how the models continue to show this system over the next week.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z MU shows a very weak low spinning offshore the Carolinas before washing out

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like model support is fading from the very little support it had originally.

[Alyono]

MU isn't a weak TD

It is probably a decent TS. Look at the strong pressure gradient

Into NE Florida it's a Weak TD at best, but exiting the Carolinas it is likely no doubt a Strong TS.

the 12Z was clearly more than a TD. Look at the gradient. Do not pay attention to the MSLP

[N2FSU]

0Z Euro; +168hr

[N2FSU]

0Z Euro; +240hr