2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[northjaxpro]

Both the EURO and the GFS keeps a potential tropical cyclone just spinning off the SE U.S. Coast from June 19-22.

Looks like blocking pattern gets established across the NW Atlantic, whatever tries to form looks to be in a weak steering flow.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro is the only model that actually develops this into a decent Tropical Cyclone meandering off the SE U.S. Coast in the Long-Range, the 00z and 06z GFS do very little to nothing with it and send a very weak messy low out to sea.

[tropicwatch]

Maybe the GFS will come on board in the next couple of runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the GFS will come on board in the next couple of runs.

It was onboard with something both on the 12z and 18z runs yesterday but has since dropped development.

It seems like the GFS has improved significantly in my opinion with predicting development or not and not showing phantom storms anymore since the upgrade last month.

[gatorcane]

The CMC picked up on development in the 00Z for the area off the SE US coast on the long-range. So the ECMWF is not alone. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS come back on board. After all we are talking long-range so it is expected to see some models swings this far out.

[tolakram]

Great, the week we'll be in South Carolina.

[Alyono]

12Z CMC has largely dropped the East Coast low.

Keeps it too close to land compared to the 0Z. Also, it has another low in close proximity that moves to the NE, which seems to rob some energy

[cycloneye]

What GFS has more is a lopsided GOM system but is 9 days out.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro now has development in the North-Central Atlantic.

[tropicwatch]

Hopefully we will get more of an agreement between the two in the next day or so.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What GFS has more is a lopsided GOM system but is 9 days out.

Yesterdays 12z run showed a weak low down in the BOC moving wnw into Mexico. So maybe come early next week we might have a little more interest down there if runs continue showing something. Nothing to get excited about by any means.

[tailgater]

What GFS has more is a lopsided GOM system but is 9 days out.

Euro has a weak low heading to Texas a day earlier.




Guess I better pack my bags, he says dripping with sarcasm.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has the Gulf low again:

[thundercam96]

Is it safe to say that there is a higher TC formation possibility around the 7-10 days? Considering the previous model runs from the GFS and EURO.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it safe to say that there is a higher TC formation possibility around the 7-10 days? Considering the previous model runs from the GFS and EURO.

No, models are all over the place with when and where a potential TC forms if one does at all.

[RL3AO]

Is it safe to say that there is a higher TC formation possibility around the 7-10 days? Considering the previous model runs from the GFS and EURO.

My quick gut is a 20 to 30% chance of a TC in the next 10 days, which is probably a little higher than climatology.

[bamajammer4eva]

Following the 18z GFS satellite simulator it looks like the tropical wave currently just east of the islands would play some role into the BOC system.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=600

[bamajammer4eva]

00Z GFS continues to favor the Western GOM keeping lower pressure in the BOC for days before latching on to an area and this is the look by hr 240



00Z Euro prefers a system off the SE coast which still appears frontal in this image but the Low drifts back west in the following days as High builds in behind the front.

[stormwise]

The heights admons if they verify looks to be reason for the low to form.

[wxman57]

Clearly, the models are developing a frontal low along the East U.S. Coast next weekend. The question is, will it be able to disassociate itself from the cold front and develop tropical characteristics? Maybe - if it stays offshore long enough.