2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS develops and sends a weak TS into the Central GoM from the Western Caribbean in the extreme long-range heading NW @ 384hrs. with a pressure @ 1004mb.

[LarryWx]

Despite there having been 2 storms over the last few weeks, we shouldn't forget that this time of year is generally pretty quiet with a good number of years not having even one TC. It actually tends to get quieter when going from ~6/20 to ~7/20, when the main seasonal ramp up begins. My point is that with the model consensus waffling and showing no consistent threat unlike what was being shown well in advance for TS Colin, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is no named storm over the next couple of weeks. If I were a betting man and were given even money odds, I'd bet on no named storm. But we'll just have to see what actually happens.

[chaser1]

I'd have to agree Larry. Reasonably "No development" would certainly be the "odds on favorite" to likely result during the next week or so. Exception of course being either actual development beginning to occur or some interestingly consistant and consensus model support. Right now though, we have neither. Nonetheless, it's still interesting to see how model improvement may or may not play out as well as whether this year might provide us with greater over all model consistancy and forecast accuracy. Furthermore, its interesting to see as the models forecast indications of changing patterns while slowly inching toward the meat of this years' hurricane season.

[srainhoutx]

Despite there having been 2 storms over the last few weeks, we shouldn't forget that this time of year is generally pretty quiet with a good number of years not having even one TC. It actually tends to get quieter when going from ~6/20 to ~7/20, when the main seasonal ramp up begins. My point is that with the model consensus waffling and showing no consistent threat unlike what was being shown well in advance for TS Colin, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is no named storm over the next couple of weeks. If I were a betting man and were given even money odds, I'd bet on no named storm. But we'll just have to see what actually happens.

Also there is no support from a CCKW or the MJO. Look later in June/first part of July for conditions to possibly become a bit more favorable for tropical development particularly in the Western Atlantic Basin.

[chaser1]

Despite there having been 2 storms over the last few weeks, we shouldn't forget that this time of year is generally pretty quiet with a good number of years not having even one TC. It actually tends to get quieter when going from ~6/20 to ~7/20, when the main seasonal ramp up begins. My point is that with the model consensus waffling and showing no consistent threat unlike what was being shown well in advance for TS Colin, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is no named storm over the next couple of weeks. If I were a betting man and were given even money odds, I'd bet on no named storm. But we'll just have to see what actually happens.

Also there is no support from a CCKW or the MJO. Look later in June/first part of July for conditions to possibly become a bit more favorable for tropical development particularly in the Western Atlantic Basin.

Also very true.

In light of both valid points though, I can't help wonder this speculative question. I guess it stands to reason that there's little (if any) rational science that would appear to exist in support of a T.S. developing in the Gulf during the next week or so. Having said that does'nt it also imply if the contrary were to actually occur, this would be a strong indication that subtle changes to atmospheric conditions have occured and the reasonable assumtion be that this year will probably pose an even greater danger in terms of strength and number of storms than officially predicted?

[HurrMark]

EC still likes a short-lived TC Monday off the Carolinas fizzling SE of LI by Tuesday, although it is even further east than the 0Z run.

[Alyono]

12Z models are more aggressive in developing something in the western Gulf in the 5 to 7 day time frame

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z models are more aggressive in developing something in the western Gulf in the 5 to 7 day time frame

Should avoid Texas right?

[Alyono]

the models say anything from a low to a hurricane anywhere from Veracruz to New Orleans

[tarheelprogrammer]

the models say anything from a low to a hurricane anywhere from Veracruz to New Orleans

Okay thanks as always and will be watching closely.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro shows a stronger coastal low @ 120hrs. just off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. Coast. It is possible in my opinion that it could briefly obtain subtropical characteristics before merging with the front starting @ 144hrs.

[weathaguyry]

Hi guys! I've been lurking for the past month or two, and figured that I would join, because I just turned 13 years old on the 12th ... Anyway, it looks like 0z run of ECMWF shows a weaker, more sloppy low off the east coast at 120 hours

[weathaguyry]

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro still shows a Subtropical Storm off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline @ 96hrs.

[weatherwindow]

Good morning all and greetings from Cayo Hueso... in addition to the model concensus on a southeast coastal storm,
there appears later in the 00z runs a suggestion a lowering of pressure in the South Central Gulf of Mexico and the Northwest Caribbean. The euro appears to suggest the interaction of a Westward moving tropical wave with a transient upper level trough. The future of this area and any possible development remain very uncertain. While this may indeed be the area that is ultimately associated with development in the Bay of Campeche, it appears to remain a separate entity for the time being while we observe its ultimate evolution....Rich

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah the last 7 runs(at least) of the GFS have shown a Tropical Cyclone of some sorts somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico within the last day or two of June. Bears watching as timeframe on recent runs has moved in and now being only 264hrs. or so from potential landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on the 12z GFS. Along with timing consistency the GFS on it's recent runs has become somewhat more stronger with this potential TC each of the last few runs, landfall location too seems to be keying in on the Northern Gulf Coast. But, it's too soon to know anything for sure so stay tuned!

[Yellow Evan]

Some EPS members seem to agree with the GFS but knowing the GFS, it'll drop it as it gets closer.

[northjaxpro]

Now this is 2 weeks out, so for the time being, I am not going to move into the concerned category. But, I have a trip planned for New Orleans on the July 4 holiday weekend. Now, I know taking a vacation in The Big Easy anytime during June-October especially carries big risks period with the tropics. But, I was just hoping beyond hope that I would not have to worry about some tropical mischief uh? (Wishful thinking on my part, uh?)

Well, if this is showing like this inside of 10 days, then I will take a bit more notice. But, the way it has been in the early going of the hurricane season, all the action seemingly is happening close to home, either off the SE Atlantic coast or in the GOM. So, although we are talking 2 weeks away, I have to admit it is not far fetched for sure.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Some EPS members seem to agree with the GFS but knowing the GFS, it'll drop it as it gets closer.

I hope all the model solutions drop it for my sake!!

[cycloneye]

For the period from 22-28 of June there is an area highlighted by CPC.