Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#601 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Jun 11, 2016 12:13 pm

Looks to me like right around the beginning of May that a Loop Current Eddy broke off from the main current which provides an additional anomalously warm area in the Central GOM. Its pretty easy to see on the Navy's site

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/glfmex.html

I think this could be a factor for anything that gets into the GOM in the heart of the season
Here is a loop from Oct 2005-Oct 2006
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/l ... 5-2006.mpg
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#602 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:14 pm

So?? El Nino vs. Climatology?? In the wake of this years' strong El Nino there's been a lot of questions regarding how far lasting will El Nino conditions impact this Atlantic hurricane season, either with fewer named storms (of tropical origin) or overall weaker storms impacted by continuing volitile upper level conditions. While many of us here on S2K anticipated 2016 to be a year of increased number of named storms, most everyone was inclinded to think that this year might still largely remain a transitional year in terms of hurricane strength and the potential for severity.

I'm curious to see if a tropical wave that'll move over Yucatan in about 96 hours, might not only develop into a record breaking earliest 4th named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, but more interestingly prove some type of "litmus test" to see if more typically climatological conditions are beginning to occur. Development of a tropical system in the Gulf might be indicative that the grip of El Nino conditions which cause upper level winds to plague cyclone developement, may be loosening perhaps quicker than expected. GFS this a.m is projecting a 1010mb low/depression to form in the B.O.C. in about 144 hours. Further development into a T.S. though might imply an even greater need for vigilance and an increased threat of a more typical mix of stronger tropical cyclones to form during the upcoming heart of the season. Beyond that its still undetermined how much or whether or not more ENSO neutral like (or even La Nina) conditions will impact this current Atlantic season. I can't help wonder if a named storm in the Gulf next week might tip us off to a clue?
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#603 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:25 pm

chaser1 wrote:So?? El Nino vs. Climatology?? In the wake of this years' strong El Nino there's been a lot of questions regarding how far lasting will El Nino conditions impact this Atlantic hurricane season, either with fewer named storms (of tropical origin) or overall weaker storms impacted by continuing volitile upper level conditions. While many of us here on S2K anticipated 2016 to be a year of increased number of named storms, most everyone was inclinded to think that this year might still largely remain a transitional year in terms of hurricane strength and the potential for severity.

I'm curious to see if a tropical wave that'll move over Yucatan in about 96 hours, might not only develop into a record breaking earliest 4th named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, but more interestingly prove some type of "litmus test" to see if more typically climatological conditions are beginning to occur. Development of a tropical system in the Gulf might be indicative that the grip of El Nino conditions which cause upper level winds to plague cyclone developement, may be loosening perhaps quicker than expected. GFS this a.m is projecting a 1010mb low/depression to form in the B.O.C. in about 144 hours. Further development into a T.S. though might imply an even greater need for vigilance and an increased threat of a more typical mix of stronger tropical cyclones to form during the upcoming heart of the season. Beyond that its still undetermined how much or whether or not more ENSO neutral like (or even La Nina) conditions will impact this current Atlantic season. I can't help wonder if a named storm in the Gulf next week might tip us off to a clue?


Beyond the water temperature profiles, one thing to look for is trough splits vs. progressive troughs. For almost the entire El Nino, we haven't been seeing that much splitting across N. America. But that's not the case any longer as a piece of the last few has been tailing off as the main energy lifted out. When La Nina gets strong, almost all the troughs across the CONUS end up splitting in some fashion where as it's the opposite in strong El Ninos. Neutrals can have a mix of actions/reactions with troughs. Clearly that atmospheric indicator shows we are in at least Neutral (which we are) ENSO. FWIW, chaser1 probably already knows this, but for anyone who doesn't, your best guide to seeing this phenomenon is to run long water vapor loops and watch what happens at the base of the trough axis.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#604 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:38 pm

:uarrow: Great mental visual on "the atmosphere's (upper level) dance of fluidity"! Steve, to piggyback on that... do you (or anyone else) happen to know where one could find a link to any real long past "year", "season", or even moth satellite loop? I imagine some must exist but probably some sewn together following some period of time rather than leading up to current??
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#605 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:35 pm

Unfortunately not. Sometimes someone will pass one around and there are a few on YouTube, but nothing reliable for x period. I'm sure someone knows where to find a relatable stitching.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#606 Postby USTropics » Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:57 pm

chaser1 wrote::uarrow: Great mental visual on "the atmosphere's (upper level) dance of fluidity"! Steve, to piggyback on that... do you (or anyone else) happen to know where one could find a link to any real long past "year", "season", or even moth satellite loop? I imagine some must exist but probably some sewn together following some period of time rather than leading up to current??


A more long ways approach to a solution, but you can use a program like Unidata's Integrated Data Viewer to access databases that provide historical satellite images and then loop the entire sequence of images you choose. Unidata provides workshops and tutorials on how to do this step by step (it's actually pretty straightforward after you try it a few times).
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#607 Postby beoumont » Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:34 am

chaser1 wrote::uarrow: Great mental visual on "the atmosphere's (upper level) dance of fluidity"! Steve, to piggyback on that... do you (or anyone else) happen to know where one could find a link to any real long past "year", "season", or even moth satellite loop? I imagine some must exist but probably some sewn together following some period of time rather than leading up to current??


2015 season loop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeHR5MuqbRc
2014 season loop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q790cnYqeKg
2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q790cnYqeKg
2102 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmLYjs0kwnc
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#608 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:01 am

High pressures almost everywhere has the June ECMWF update of MSLP for ASO but as wxman57 has said before,the high pressures are not as high as in 2015.

Image
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#609 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:11 am

:uarrow:

It's just hard to imagine an active season with a MSLP forecast map like that but I guess we'll have to just wait and see. I do notice a small area of slightly lower pressures in the NW carib compared to the rest of the basin so maybe we'll finally see some activity there this season.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#610 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:21 am

:uarrow: East Pacific is not looking good either.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#611 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:27 am

A quick comparison of the EURO ASO Rain forecast from June 1 2014, 2015 and 2016 does indicate a much moister (in comparison to 2014 & 2015) forecast for this year.

2014: Image

2015: Image

2016: Image
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#612 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:07 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:A quick comparison of the EURO ASO Rain forecast from June 1 2014, 2015 and 2016 does indicate a much moister (in comparison to 2014 & 2015) forecast for this year.


Yes, I've been pointing that out in my outlook presentations. Less dry, sinking air this year means a more favorable environment in the Caribbean & Gulf (less shear with a lack of El Nino, too).
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#613 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:A quick comparison of the EURO ASO Rain forecast from June 1 2014, 2015 and 2016 does indicate a much moister (in comparison to 2014 & 2015) forecast for this year.


Yes, I've been pointing that out in my outlook presentations. Less dry, sinking air this year means a more favorable environment in the Caribbean & Gulf (less shear with a lack of El Nino, too).


Besides 57, other knowledgeable weather pros are saying this year will be a long season and may be active well into the fall. Don't bet your roof or life on an ECMF probability chart that may indicate slightly higher than normal surface pressures in several basins.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#614 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:46 pm

Based on where the ridge will set up once again for the 11th consecutive year we will have a summer long wnw flow over the west atlantic with a big west atlantic trof. FLA cane drought will continue and this will be year 11 of no major canes hitting the US. A big warning sign was the continued CA drought despite a super el nino. Nothing can get rid of the 11 year west atlantic trof. I know some people will say if something times it just right then there might be a 1% chance of something hitting land but as has happened every year as we head toward aug/sept the trof will simply get stronger and stronger. Bermuda high might be just something talked about but never seen.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#615 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:49 pm

ninel conde wrote:Based on where the ridge will set up once again for the 11th consecutive year we will have a summer long wnw flow over the west atlantic with a big west atlantic trof. FLA cane drought will continue and this will be year 11 of no major canes hitting the US. A big warning sign was the continued CA drought despite a super el nino. Nothing can get rid of the 11 year west atlantic trof. I know some people will say if something times it just right then there might be a 1% chance of something hitting land but as has happened every year as we head toward aug/sept the trof will simply get stronger and stronger. Bermuda high might be just something talked about but never seen.


Where is this set in stone? If it is true I would be ecstatic (no hits to US) but I do not have a time machine or a MET degree.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#616 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:00 pm

ninel conde wrote:Based on where the ridge will set up once again for the 11th consecutive year we will have a summer long wnw flow over the west atlantic with a big west atlantic trof. FLA cane drought will continue and this will be year 11 of no major canes hitting the US. A big warning sign was the continued CA drought despite a super el nino. Nothing can get rid of the 11 year west atlantic trof. I know some people will say if something times it just right then there might be a 1% chance of something hitting land but as has happened every year as we head toward aug/sept the trof will simply get stronger and stronger. Bermuda high might be just something talked about but never seen.


Usually I'm right here agreeing with you ninel but think we should wait til at least the first of august to see how things are looking. If we are still seeing the troughs coming off the coast like they are now and like we have had so much over the previous years then I'm all in with you about the pattern not breaking.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#617 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:30 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
ninel conde wrote:Based on where the ridge will set up once again for the 11th consecutive year we will have a summer long wnw flow over the west atlantic with a big west atlantic trof. FLA cane drought will continue and this will be year 11 of no major canes hitting the US. A big warning sign was the continued CA drought despite a super el nino. Nothing can get rid of the 11 year west atlantic trof. I know some people will say if something times it just right then there might be a 1% chance of something hitting land but as has happened every year as we head toward aug/sept the trof will simply get stronger and stronger. Bermuda high might be just something talked about but never seen.


Usually I'm right here agreeing with you ninel but think we should wait til at least the first of august to see how things are looking. If we are still seeing the troughs coming off the coast like they are now and like we have had so much over the previous years then I'm all in with you about the pattern not breaking.



You make a good point, but once a pattern is set, thats it. Some guy on TWC made a great point on how summer patterns dont change. The amazing thing is this pattern is 11 years old now.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#618 Postby Huckster » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:32 pm

ninel conde wrote:Based on where the ridge will set up once again for the 11th consecutive year we will have a summer long wnw flow over the west atlantic with a big west atlantic trof. FLA cane drought will continue and this will be year 11 of no major canes hitting the US. A big warning sign was the continued CA drought despite a super el nino. Nothing can get rid of the 11 year west atlantic trof. I know some people will say if something times it just right then there might be a 1% chance of something hitting land but as has happened every year as we head toward aug/sept the trof will simply get stronger and stronger. Bermuda high might be just something talked about but never seen.


^^^That's ridiculous, like RIDICULOUS. No one can authoritatively make such a pronouncement on August 15th, much less June 15th. We are THREE MONTHS away from the peak of hurricane season. Let that sink in. That is a quarter of a year.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#619 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:36 pm

Huckster wrote:
ninel conde wrote:Based on where the ridge will set up once again for the 11th consecutive year we will have a summer long wnw flow over the west atlantic with a big west atlantic trof. FLA cane drought will continue and this will be year 11 of no major canes hitting the US. A big warning sign was the continued CA drought despite a super el nino. Nothing can get rid of the 11 year west atlantic trof. I know some people will say if something times it just right then there might be a 1% chance of something hitting land but as has happened every year as we head toward aug/sept the trof will simply get stronger and stronger. Bermuda high might be just something talked about but never seen.


^^^That's ridiculous, like RIDICULOUS. No one can authoritatively make such a pronouncement on August 15th, much less June 15th. We are THREE MONTHS away from the peak of hurricane season. Let that sink in. That is a quarter of a year.



Perhaps. Another good point to make was the slow severe weather season once again. WNW flows across the east is a hallmark of slow severe weather seasons.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#620 Postby Huckster » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:42 pm

Another point I'd like to make is one that has probably been made before, but I feel like sometimes people get too caught up in the Major Hurricane classification. It's a breakpoint that someone thought up for a scale. The lack of storms to meet someone's expectations over an eleven year period does not indicate that global weather patterns have broken down or changed irrevocably.

Gustav and Ike caused tremendous and in some cases exceptional damage. Granted, Florida has not seen much since 2005, but there are other places in the US that can get hit and have gotten hit. When things return to "normal," people will think the world is ending.
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