ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

Down goes Frazier. Shear knocked em out with a mean uppercut. I hope that is the story again this year. So many lives have been spared because of it. This should stay weak because of it and it doesn't look name worthy anymore to me. May have to wait till July to get another named storm. It is still a rain threat to Mexico I know but at least it will be a weak storm at best.

What's your basis for your analysis that it is not "name worthy anymore"? Nothing has changed in the way it's developing and moving since the last NHC discussion and they expect it to get to a 40 mph TS.

Satellite presentation not great and looks to be moving faster than earlier. Running out of room and Hammy mention it may be open I agree. Could be wrong and you know more than I but we both know without shear this could of been much worse. Just was sharing an opinion. It did look close earlier. IDK probably wrong I know lol

[ozonepete]

Ok, buddy.

[weathaguyry]

I think overnight recon will really tell us the fate of this, it appears to be sloppy, but convection has not really decreased like we have seen with this, but if this was given the chance to develop for some more time, it would be a T.S without a question.

[Hammy]

Tropical Tidbits showing nothing for recon--was it cancelled for some reason?

[ozonepete]

Tropical Tidbits showing nothing for recon--was it cancelled for some reason?

The new NHC discussion says it's still on:

WTNT44 KNHC 200232
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

The depression has changed little in overall organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection that developed near the center during the late afternoon has waned this evening, while showers and thunderstorms over the far northern portion of the circulation continue to exhibit some loose banding structure. Recent buoy data and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB still support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the depression overnight should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity.

[Hammy]

Tropical Tidbits showing nothing for recon--was it cancelled for some reason?

The new NHC discussion says it's still on:

WTNT44 KNHC 200232
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

The depression has changed little in overall organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection that developed near the center during the late afternoon has waned this evening, while showers and thunderstorms over the far northern portion of the circulation continue to exhibit some loose banding structure. Recent buoy data and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB still support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the depression overnight should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity.

They seem late taking off unless they had problems and aren't going--they were scheduled to depart 30 minutes ago and I can't find any information anywhere that indicates one in progress.

[chaser1]

Over land and over water, looks like convection is starting to pop like fresh popcorn. Upper level winds appearing to finally be relaxing I suppose.

[JaxGator]

Just in time for recon when it takes off.

[Hammy]

If a circulation does in fact exist, I would put it near 19.3/95.5, based on what appears to be curved banding to the east of there. The circulation may be tiny at this point.

[tarheelprogrammer]

If a circulation does in fact exist, I would put it near 19.3/95.5, based on what appears to be curved banding to the east of there. The circulation may be tiny at this point.

Which would mean it didnt move at all today. Weird I see spin there and it looks like it is just sitting there. Could be an eddy.

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200716
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20160620
070630 2003N 09535W 8429 01578 0111 +170 +088 089001 005 027 007 00
070700 2005N 09535W 8425 01582 0109 +175 +084 131002 005 021 002 00
070730 2006N 09535W 8437 01569 0106 +178 +083 106014 019 023 001 01
070800 2008N 09535W 8435 01575 0125 +148 +094 106020 022 024 006 05
070830 2009N 09535W 8421 01582 0124 +146 +086 103022 025 034 008 03
070900 2010N 09537W 8441 01565 0110 +177 +075 125014 020 036 005 01
070930 2011N 09539W 8413 01594 0115 +165 +075 132012 014 026 001 01
071000 2012N 09540W 8430 01577 0114 +167 +064 101015 016 023 001 01
071030 2013N 09542W 8428 01582 0112 +172 +063 093017 019 025 001 01
071100 2014N 09544W 8429 01578 0117 +160 +082 120015 016 020 004 00
071130 2015N 09545W 8428 01580 0129 +145 +063 121018 019 021 006 05
071200 2015N 09547W 8432 01578 0128 +150 +047 099017 019 /// /// 05
071230 2014N 09548W 8433 01579 0122 +160 +059 109008 016 /// /// 05
071300 2012N 09547W 8425 01583 0117 +162 +062 151008 009 023 001 05
071330 2011N 09546W 8435 01574 0118 +164 +050 152007 009 023 002 01
071400 2010N 09544W 8426 01581 0116 +162 +060 100005 008 023 002 01
071430 2009N 09543W 8432 01576 0117 +161 +069 107003 008 023 000 01
071500 2008N 09542W 8436 01572 0117 +163 +064 106005 007 022 000 01
071530 2007N 09541W 8425 01583 0112 +168 +066 084007 008 021 001 01
071600 2006N 09539W 8430 01576 0110 +171 +070 077005 006 021 001 00
$$
;

LLCC near 20N 95.5W

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200726
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20160620
071630 2005N 09538W 8430 01576 0108 +173 +069 217005 007 018 001 01
071700 2003N 09537W 8428 01578 0115 +162 +076 237003 007 019 004 01
071730 2003N 09537W 8428 01578 0118 +160 +081 263007 009 019 004 01
071800 2001N 09534W 8427 01579 0116 +160 +059 275012 015 020 005 01
071830 2000N 09533W 8434 01569 0111 +167 +066 264017 019 019 004 00
071900 1959N 09532W 8428 01578 0107 +176 +069 253020 021 015 001 00
071930 1957N 09530W 8433 01574 0107 +175 +065 255021 023 013 000 01
072000 1956N 09529W 8427 01579 0110 +169 +081 254019 023 012 000 01
072030 1955N 09528W 8433 01576 0115 +165 +069 262016 018 013 001 01
072100 1954N 09526W 8426 01577 0114 +163 +064 275016 017 015 000 01
072130 1952N 09525W 8411 01599 0119 +157 +065 274019 022 022 006 01
072200 1951N 09524W 8434 01570 0126 +145 +076 276020 023 023 014 01
072230 1950N 09522W 8435 01575 0125 +149 +068 281018 021 021 013 01
072300 1949N 09521W 8430 01576 0118 +163 +056 274015 016 013 000 01
072330 1947N 09520W 8428 01587 0120 +165 +053 255015 015 014 000 01
072400 1946N 09519W 8430 01581 0120 +168 +056 254017 018 014 000 01
072430 1945N 09517W 8429 01585 0121 +168 +064 255018 019 019 000 01
072500 1944N 09516W 8431 01585 0122 +170 +073 255018 019 019 000 01
072530 1943N 09515W 8425 01591 0118 +174 +071 254016 017 017 000 01
072600 1941N 09513W 8432 01586 0123 +171 +070 248015 016 013 000 01
$$

[NotoSans]

000
URNT12 KNHC 200726
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042016
A. 20/07:06:50Z
B. 20 deg 04 min N
095 deg 35 min W
C. 850 mb 1510 m
D. 44 kt
E. 229 deg 7 nm
F. 278 deg 32 kt
G. 215 deg 7 nm
H. 1011 mb
I. 16 C / 1529 m
J. 18 C / 1526 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0204A CYCLONE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 32 KT 215 / 7 NM 06:58:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 17 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 215 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[NotoSans]

Circulation is definitely closed as per latest recon, and the LLCC is near 20.1N 95.6W.
06Z NHC best track keeps it at 30 kt.

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200746
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20160620
073630 1916N 09447W 8428 01593 0133 +162 +070 239014 015 022 000 01
073700 1915N 09445W 8427 01597 0141 +153 +073 228015 017 022 003 01
073730 1914N 09444W 8429 01592 0136 +160 +082 223013 015 024 002 01
073800 1913N 09443W 8431 01594 0137 +162 +063 224013 014 028 004 01
073830 1911N 09442W 8434 01589 0142 +151 +066 236014 015 037 019 05
073900 1910N 09441W 8428 01599 0149 +143 +059 223013 014 032 021 01
073930 1909N 09439W 8429 01598 0153 +142 +068 194015 016 023 011 01
074000 1908N 09438W 8429 01598 0143 +156 +056 196014 016 025 005 01
074030 1907N 09437W 8433 01597 0139 +164 +051 191012 014 025 004 00
074100 1906N 09436W 8429 01598 0139 +162 +048 191013 015 021 006 00
074130 1904N 09435W 8432 01593 0143 +151 +054 178016 018 027 049 03
074200 1903N 09433W 8429 01591 0148 +140 +049 163018 020 027 054 01
074230 1902N 09432W 8437 01586 0147 +144 +045 171020 022 028 015 00
074300 1901N 09431W 8430 01591 0134 +161 +049 182019 021 034 011 01
074330 1900N 09430W 8423 01599 0134 +161 +040 181026 028 032 010 01
074400 1859N 09429W 8425 01595 0138 +151 +033 192020 025 027 012 01
074430 1858N 09428W 8429 01593 0144 +146 +058 184020 022 026 002 01
074500 1857N 09427W 8428 01597 0135 +162 +046 183019 021 024 002 01
074530 1856N 09426W 8435 01587 0134 +163 +048 174021 022 024 001 01
074600 1855N 09424W 8431 01593 0143 +149 +048 164020 022 023 003 01
$$
;

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200756
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20160620
074630 1854N 09423W 8431 01595 0137 +157 +069 166020 021 024 000 01
074700 1853N 09422W 8425 01600 0138 +159 +052 173017 019 023 000 01
074730 1851N 09421W 8432 01593 0137 +160 +050 174016 018 022 001 00
074800 1850N 09420W 8432 01594 0138 +162 +052 171017 018 022 000 01
074830 1849N 09419W 8430 01595 0137 +160 +078 174017 019 023 000 01
074900 1848N 09418W 8431 01593 0136 +163 +065 177016 017 023 000 01
074930 1847N 09416W 8429 01596 0136 +165 +073 176015 016 022 000 01
075000 1846N 09415W 8429 01595 0136 +163 +064 171014 015 020 001 00
075030 1845N 09414W 8428 01597 0138 +160 +064 164015 015 019 000 03
075100 1844N 09413W 8427 01605 0143 +163 +069 160015 016 018 001 03
075130 1845N 09412W 8436 01598 0141 +165 +069 154015 016 019 001 05
075200 1847N 09412W 8433 01591 0134 +165 +074 155015 016 020 001 01
075230 1849N 09412W 8431 01593 0135 +165 +076 152017 018 021 001 01
075300 1851N 09412W 8426 01598 0138 +162 +077 150019 019 022 000 03
075330 1852N 09413W 8430 01594 0138 +165 +068 152019 019 022 001 01
075400 1854N 09413W 8434 01593 0136 +165 +087 156019 019 023 000 01
075430 1856N 09413W 8429 01595 0136 +164 +079 155019 020 021 001 01
075500 1858N 09413W 8430 01596 0140 +161 +069 150020 021 023 000 01
075530 1900N 09413W 8432 01594 0140 +159 +077 148021 022 027 002 01
075600 1902N 09413W 8422 01604 0144 +151 +079 147028 028 029 012 03
$$

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200806
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20160620
075630 1903N 09413W 8433 01585 0147 +138 +069 146030 033 030 051 05
075700 1905N 09413W 8436 01580 0146 +132 +067 145027 032 /// /// 05
075730 1907N 09413W 8426 01595 0147 +138 +052 151026 031 047 042 05
075800 1909N 09414W 8422 01602 0145 +151 +056 133030 035 044 007 00
075830 1911N 09414W 8434 01593 0136 +163 +057 130025 027 035 003 01
075900 1913N 09414W 8436 01589 0135 +163 +056 127025 028 031 001 01
075930 1914N 09414W 8433 01592 0134 +166 +048 141022 024 029 001 00
080000 1916N 09414W 8426 01598 0133 +167 +056 149021 024 030 001 00
080030 1918N 09414W 8426 01598 0132 +168 +062 152022 023 028 000 01
080100 1920N 09414W 8429 01595 0131 +171 +058 158022 023 028 001 01
080130 1922N 09414W 8432 01595 0133 +168 +068 155021 022 028 000 01
080200 1923N 09414W 8430 01595 0135 +169 +059 155021 022 027 001 01
080230 1925N 09414W 8432 01595 0135 +167 +074 155021 022 028 000 01
080300 1927N 09415W 8433 01594 0136 +166 +078 155020 021 026 000 01
080330 1929N 09415W 8426 01602 0137 +166 +066 157021 021 027 000 01
080400 1931N 09415W 8429 01600 0137 +165 +072 156021 021 027 000 01
080430 1932N 09415W 8432 01597 0138 +165 +082 154021 022 027 002 01
080500 1934N 09415W 8430 01598 0137 +165 +074 157021 021 026 001 01
080530 1936N 09415W 8430 01597 0140 +164 +075 150022 022 027 001 01
080600 1938N 09415W 8430 01598 0140 +164 +073 150022 023 025 001 01
$$
;

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200816
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20160620
080630 1940N 09415W 8428 01601 0140 +161 +079 151024 024 026 001 01
080700 1942N 09415W 8433 01596 0144 +160 +080 149026 026 027 001 01
080730 1943N 09415W 8429 01602 0144 +159 +079 147026 026 027 000 01
080800 1945N 09416W 8429 01603 0145 +159 +072 145026 027 026 001 01
080830 1947N 09416W 8429 01601 0144 +160 +073 144026 027 026 001 01
080900 1949N 09416W 8430 01602 0142 +160 +081 143026 026 026 001 01
080930 1951N 09416W 8430 01600 0142 +165 +068 141025 025 025 001 01
081000 1953N 09416W 8430 01600 0138 +167 +069 141024 025 026 001 01
081030 1954N 09416W 8430 01601 0138 +170 +073 145024 025 025 001 01
081100 1956N 09416W 8430 01601 0135 +170 +076 145024 024 026 001 01
081130 1958N 09416W 8429 01602 0136 +171 +073 144023 024 026 001 00
081200 2000N 09416W 8430 01601 0137 +171 +080 144023 024 025 000 01
081230 2002N 09417W 8430 01599 0138 +170 +074 143024 024 024 000 01
081300 2004N 09417W 8430 01600 0137 +170 +080 144024 024 024 000 01
081330 2005N 09417W 8430 01599 0136 +170 +080 144025 025 025 000 00
081400 2007N 09417W 8429 01599 0138 +169 +088 145027 027 024 000 01
081430 2009N 09417W 8429 01602 0138 +167 +082 145028 028 023 001 00
081500 2011N 09417W 8433 01596 0140 +165 +077 144028 029 026 001 01
081530 2013N 09417W 8426 01604 0140 +165 +078 142029 030 027 000 01
081600 2015N 09417W 8430 01599 0141 +163 +084 141030 030 023 001 01
$$

[Hammy]

Looking increasingly unlikely this gets named, especially given that this is the last flight and ASCAT doesn't show many 30kt barbs let alone any 35kt.

Edit: No upgrade at 5am so zero chance of upgrade.

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200826
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20160620
081630 2016N 09417W 8432 01601 0142 +164 +078 141031 031 023 001 01
081700 2018N 09418W 8430 01601 0142 +161 +067 140031 031 023 001 01
081730 2020N 09418W 8426 01603 0140 +165 +074 143030 031 024 000 01
081800 2022N 09418W 8433 01596 //// +165 //// 141030 030 025 000 01
081830 2024N 09418W 8427 01602 0139 +168 +065 138030 030 024 001 01
081900 2026N 09418W 8428 01602 0135 +166 +122 137030 031 025 001 01
081930 2028N 09418W 8433 01596 //// +169 //// 134030 031 024 002 01
082000 2029N 09418W 8429 01600 0138 +166 +082 134030 030 023 002 00
082030 2031N 09418W 8430 01600 0138 +167 +076 135030 030 024 002 01
082100 2033N 09418W 8428 01603 0139 +169 +079 133029 030 023 003 01
082130 2035N 09418W 8429 01601 0139 +166 +075 134030 030 023 003 00
082200 2037N 09419W 8433 01599 0140 +169 +077 135030 030 023 004 01
082230 2039N 09419W 8429 01604 0141 +170 +065 134030 030 023 004 01
082300 2040N 09419W 8426 01606 0141 +169 +059 133031 031 023 003 01
082330 2042N 09419W 8433 01599 //// +170 //// 132030 031 023 003 01
082400 2044N 09419W 8425 01607 0140 +166 +071 132031 031 023 003 01
082430 2046N 09419W 8434 01597 0141 +168 +067 133031 032 023 002 01
082500 2048N 09419W 8426 01605 0141 +170 +062 134029 030 023 002 01
082530 2050N 09419W 8429 01603 0141 +170 +069 133029 029 022 002 00
082600 2051N 09419W 8432 01601 0141 +169 +074 134030 030 022 002 01
$$