2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Kingarabian]

So long range Euro has some retrograde feature going on near NOLA. Basically creates a low and then moves it into the Gulf then deepens into a TS.

[NDG]

The way the Euro has been performing I wouldn't take last night's run literally.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS: +240 hr. Back to showing development in the western Caribbean

[N2FSU]

+312hr

[stormlover2013]

euro has done well this year, but I don't see that happening

[TheStormExpert]

euro has done well this year, but I don't see that happening

Actually the Euro has been over bullish in many cases with the most ones being the East Coast Low and invest 93E in the East Pacific. The GFS has done good deal better in my opinion when compared to the past 2-3 seasons.

[TheStormExpert]

Cody Fields
@wxtrackercody

Strong CCKW will reach the Atlantic to start July. Watch Gulf/Caribbean-a strong development signal already showing.

[RL3AO]

euro has done well this year, but I don't see that happening

Actually the Euro has been over bullish in many cases with the most ones being the East Coast Low and invest 93E in the East Pacific. The GFS has done good deal better in my opinion when compared to the past 2-3 seasons.

I think its easy to get fooled by small sample sizes. The Euro has clearly been better than the GFS over the past 2-3 years. You can check the verification stats from NHC.

Also, its easy to look at one or two invests and say the GFS has been better. On a large scale, the GFS has had a terrible (borderline disastrous at times) four weeks.
http://models.weatherbell.com/verification.php

[stormlover2013]

The euro is like the presidential candidates, it's the lesser of two evils!!!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

2005 we had hurricane Denis on July 4th...we will likely have an E storm before that so I think this year will be a record breaker in terms of named storms. I'm not dismissing any models or rolling my eyes at GFS or anything else..the potential to have 33 storms this year is there...we are well on our way. I'm taking everything very serousily since I just bought a house with canal and ocean. Every time I see a model going into the gulf im buying a little more supplies. 2005 was terrifying!

Models begin to show something July 2nd. Wether it's real or not just get your supplies ready if you haven't.

[thundercam96]

2005 we had hurricane Denis on July 4th...we will likely have an E storm before that so I think this year will be a record breaker in terms of named storms. I'm not dismissing any models or rolling my eyes at GFS or anything else..the potential to have 33 storms this year is there...we are well on our way. I'm taking everything very serousily since I just bought a house with canal and ocean. Every time I see a model going into the gulf im buying a little more supplies. 2005 was terrifying!

Models begin to show something July 2nd. Wether it's real or not just get your supplies ready if you haven't.

I agree. I'm beginning to worry what the season entails for Aug/Sept.

[TheStormExpert]

This record fast start to the season means nothing in terms of how the rest of the season goes.

One thing though that concerns me is where these storms are forming which is a region known to allow high impacts. Both Colin and Danielle formed in the GoM while Bonnie formed just off the SE U.S. All three went onto hit land, if the GFS is an indication then future Earl could form in the Western Caribbean or GoM and hit land around July 4th.

Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach

Active early Atlantic hurricane seasons do not necessarily imply an active overall season.

[RL3AO]

Everyone take a deep breath. We've had a hurricane in January (which means nothing for how active the season will be), a garbage TS off the east coast, a garbage GOM system that was arguably not even a TS, and a typical weak BoC system. At least in 2005 Arlene was almost a hurricane and Cindy was a hurricane. I don't exactly see Dennis or Emily on the doorstep this year.

Does the GOM and Caribbean look more favorable that the past few years? Yes. But 33 named storms? Come on.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Everyone take a deep breath. We've had a hurricane in January (which means nothing for how active the season will be), a garbage TS off the east coast, a garbage GOM system that was arguably not even a TS, and a typical weak BoC system. At least in 2005 Arlene was almost a hurricane and Cindy was a hurricane. I don't exactly see Dennis or Emily on the doorstep this year.

Does the GOM and Caribbean look more favorable that the past few years? Yes. But 33 named storms? Come on.

lol 33 named storms seems a bit of a stretch. Most likely it will be around 20 at the most. It will be pretty active in my opinion. Models already sniffing out the next threat taking shape in about a week.

[TheStormExpert]

Everyone take a deep breath. We've had a hurricane in January (which means nothing for how active the season will be), a garbage TS off the east coast, a garbage GOM system that was arguably not even a TS, and a typical weak BoC system. At least in 2005 Arlene was almost a hurricane and Cindy was a hurricane. I don't exactly see Dennis or Emily on the doorstep this year.

Does the GOM and Caribbean look more favorable that the past few years? Yes. But 33 named storms? Come on.

Yeah excluding Alex we have had three poorly organized weak short-lived Tropical Storms, not very impressed but after all it's only June 20th.

Not trying to wish any danger on anyone but I hope we do not see just a bunch of junky short-lived weak TS's all season long like in 2013.

[tarheelprogrammer]

New GFS coming in stronger. Seems to organize the system starting this weekend. Looks like a hurricane making landfall along the west coast of Florida.

[PTrackerLA]

While still in the long-range/super long-range, the GFS has been very consistent for two days now of something coming out of the Caribbean.

12z GFS 240 hrs:



300 hrs:

[cycloneye]

The energy so far accumulated (ACE) is very low for having four named systems.(6.4025 units) Hopefully,the season picks up more long duration and strong systems on the peak months.

[TheStormExpert]

New GFS coming in stronger. Seems to organize the system starting this weekend. Looks like a hurricane making landfall along the west coast of Florida.

Has it making landfall in a similar location to where Colin hit on Sunday July 3rd as a strong TS/minimal Hurricane.

The GFS has been very persistent on that location for several runs now, strength has fluctuated though.

[ninel conde]

Everyone take a deep breath. We've had a hurricane in January (which means nothing for how active the season will be), a garbage TS off the east coast, a garbage GOM system that was arguably not even a TS, and a typical weak BoC system. At least in 2005 Arlene was almost a hurricane and Cindy was a hurricane. I don't exactly see Dennis or Emily on the doorstep this year.

Does the GOM and Caribbean look more favorable that the past few years? Yes. But 33 named storms? Come on.

Yeah excluding Alex we have had three poorly organized weak short-lived Tropical Storms, not very impressed but after all it's only June 20th.

Not trying to wish any danger on anyone but I hope we do not see just a bunch of junky short-lived weak TS's all season long like in 2013.

so far, i would say that is a sign of a slow season. lets see if a well developed hurricane shows up on models.