ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Looks amazing right now, with curved band features and a shapeless CDO. Likely a moderate TS- our first legit looking system since Fantala globally.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
100 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DANIELLE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 96.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.6 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Danielle makes landfall
in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. More than 5 inches of rain have already
occurred at Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUN 2016 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 20:44:22 N Lon : 96:28:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.3mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.4

Center Temp : -50.4C Cloud Region Temp : -53.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-96&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[cycloneye]

This is the Veracruz cam and it is showing rainy conditions in that area which is the main threat.

[tatertawt24]

I'm really surprised it made it! It really seemed like it was running out of time last night.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DANIELLE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 97.0 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or west is expected during the next 24
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to
move inland over eastern Mexico later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Danielle makes landfall
in Mexico tonight. Rapid weakening is expected after the center of
Danielle moves inland over Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. More than 8 inches of rain have already
occurred at Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur over
portions of the warning area through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

The initial motion estimate is 285/07 kt using a 12-hour average
motion. A 1638 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the center of
Danielle has maintained a northwestward motion, which was indicated
by earlier reconnaissance aircraft fix data. In contrast, satellite
animation shows that the larger scale cyclonic circulation has been
moving westward. Excluding some internal wobbles, the general
forecast track motion should be toward the west or west-northwest
for the next 24 hours due to a large low- to mid-level ridge
remaining anchored over the southern Plains and southern United
States. On the forecast track, which is similar to the HWRF model,
the center of Danielle should move inland this evening along the
east coast of Mexico near Laguna Tamiahua.

No significant strengthening is expected before landfall occurs due
to Danielle's interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern
Mexico and dry mid-level downslope air being entrained into the
southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Rapid weakening of
the cyclone is forecast after landfall occurs, with dissipation
expected by 36 hours.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with
Danielle. More than 8 inches of rain have already occurred at Pozo
Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico (station MMPA). These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of
eastern Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 21.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 21.4N 97.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1800Z 21.4N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[weathaguyry]

Does anybody know why some of the models don't weaken this??

[RL3AO]

Does anybody know why some of the models don't weaken this??
[img ]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/04L_intensity_latest.png[/img]

Some of the statistical models don't account for land.

[weathaguyry]

Oh, ok

[HurricaneRyan]

It beat Debby's record.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
700 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...CENTER OF DANIELLE MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF TUXPAN...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 97.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 97.4 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Danielle is expected to move inland over
eastern Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected tonight, and the
system is expected to dissipate on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur over
portions of the warning area through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DANIELLE MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 97.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Danielle was located inland near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 97.8
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
farther inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected overnight, and the
system is expected to dissipate Tuesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

Satellite and surface data indicate that Danielle made landfall
just north of Tuxpan, Mexico, just before 0000 UTC. Around
that time, a sustained wind of 30 kt with a gust to 40 kt was
reported at Tampico in a convective band to the north of the
center. The associated deep convection has gradually weakened
and become less organized during the past 6 to 12 hours. As a
result, the initial wind speed was lowered to 35 kt on the
intermediate public advisory at 0000 UTC, and to 30 kt for this
advisory. Now that the center has moved over land, rapid weakening
is expected overnight, and the circulation is very likely to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico Tuesday
morning.

The depression is moving westward or 280/7 kt, and this general
motion should continue until dissipation occurs.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with
this system, and these rains are likely to continue over portions
of eastern Mexico even after the cyclone dissipates. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over
portions of eastern Mexico during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 21.2N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 21.2N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[stormwise]

earlier pass.

[cycloneye]

REMNANTS OF DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Surface data over east-central Mexico indicate that Danielle no
longer has a well-defined low-level circulation. Satellite imagery
also shows that deep convection, primarily associated with the
cyclone's mid-level center, has also vanished overnight. Therefore
Danielle is declared dissipated, and this is the last advisory.
Global models show the remnants of Danielle quickly moving west-
southwestward or southwestward across south-central and southwestern
Mexico today to the south of a strong mid-level ridge of high
pressure centered over the southwestern United States. The
remnants could emerge in the eastern Pacific waters to the southwest
of Mexico on Wednesday before losing their identity.

Danielle's remnants should continue to produce heavy rains over
portions of south-central and southwestern Mexico today, especially
around the time of peak diurnal heating. These rains could cause
localized flash flooding and mud slides across the region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 20.6N 99.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[TheStormExpert]

Wind Shear is not the lowest but it's not too strong like what we saw with Bonnie and Colin. Personally I think it is very possible we could see Danielle in the coming days, peak strength in my opinion would be around 35-40kts.

http://i66.tinypic.com/r9mnhd.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/6zr2j6.jpg

Made a good call several days back on what I thought peak intensity would be.