2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[stormlover2013]

Will be interesting if gfs sniffed it out this far out, wish euro would go this far out

[Yellow Evan]

GfS isn't bringing the timeframe of landfall down much, but tbf the track its been showing has it moving slower across the BOC and the Yuacatan and then moving N rather than racing off the the NE.

[Yellow Evan]

Will be interesting if gfs sniffed it out this far out, wish euro would go this far out

ECMWF goes out to 10 days and hasn't shown anything, even though the GFS has a system over the Yucatan at that time.

The EPS ensembles do go out to day 15 and they have only a few of the 51 members seem to show anything.

[cycloneye]

FIM-8 is on board.

[srainhoutx]

Beginning to see some rather impressive Ensemble support for the possibility of Tropical Cyclone Genesis across the NW Caribbean as the robust MJO pulse arrives. Also, the Day 11+ Analogs offer some interesting dates that coincide with a favorable Upper Air pattern during that time.

[cycloneye]

What MV said did not lasted long.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago

I'm very happy to see not one of the folks I'm following post a hour 336 forecast map from the 12Z GFS op. Bravo.


Eric Webb ‏@webberweather · 16m16 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice Yea, so much for that... #oops #wxporn : P


Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@webberweather @MJVentrice usually isn't just the map is the issue -- it's the added drama or hype

[Alyono]

12Z MU basically goes full Katrina

I needed that good laugh today. That's not going to happen

...what? It shows a Category 1 hurricane making landfall, in no way comparable to Katrina.

if you think ~980mb in the low resolution is a cat 1, I have some property back in Indonesia near a polluted river to sell you for a million USD

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro still showing nothing.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, GFS/NAVGEM vs ECMWF/CMC. Stay tuned to see which group wins the battle lol. Personally I think the GFS is right but only on genesis and not on strength. Thinking a low end hurricane at best if it develops.

[TheStormExpert]

So, GFS/NAVGEM vs ECMWF/CMC. Stay tuned to see which group wins the battle lol. Personally I think the GFS is right but only on genesis and not on strength. Thinking a low end hurricane at best if it develops.

That is what the 12z GFS showed at landfall in SE Louisiana a Cat.1 hurricane.

[StormHunter72]

Until the Euro shows something it is a phantom

[RL3AO]

So, GFS/NAVGEM vs ECMWF/CMC. Stay tuned to see which group wins the battle lol. Personally I think the GFS is right but only on genesis and not on strength. Thinking a low end hurricane at best if it develops.

That is what the 12z GFS showed at landfall in SE Louisiana a Cat.1 hurricane.

980mb 330 hours out would probably be a high 2 or 3.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, GFS/NAVGEM vs ECMWF/CMC. Stay tuned to see which group wins the battle lol. Personally I think the GFS is right but only on genesis and not on strength. Thinking a low end hurricane at best if it develops.

That is what the 12z GFS showed at landfall in SE Louisiana a Cat.1 hurricane.

Yeah I know but I think that is a max and not what it will end up being. Probably a long tracking strong tropical storm.

[tropicwatch]

Until the Euro shows something it is a phantom

The GFS sniffed out Danielle pretty early and the euro was slow to hop on board.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan chims on this.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 33m33 minutes ago

@TropicsWatch @MJVentrice I'm very skeptical until I see the vorticity source come from somewhere other than Venezuela on the GFS.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Until the Euro shows something it is a phantom

The GFS sniffed out Danielle pretty early and the euro was slow to hop on board.

ECMWF never came on board it showed nothing pretty much there up until landfall. I am not saying it is wrong here but it is not perfect.

[TheStormExpert]

So, GFS/NAVGEM vs ECMWF/CMC. Stay tuned to see which group wins the battle lol. Personally I think the GFS is right but only on genesis and not on strength. Thinking a low end hurricane at best if it develops.

That is what the 12z GFS showed at landfall in SE Louisiana a Cat.1 hurricane.

980mb 330 hours out would probably be a high 2 or 3.

Wind field shows winds of strong TS or weak Cat.1 though.

[wxman57]

Beginning to see some rather impressive Ensemble support for the possibility of Tropical Cyclone Genesis across the NW Caribbean as the robust MJO pulse arrives. Also, the Day 11+ Analogs offer some interesting dates that coincide with a favorable Upper Air pattern during that time.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... 20_240.png

That genesis probability map only includes GFS ensembles, apparently. However, they've been indicating a significant low pressure anomaly in the western Caribbean late next week.

There is also a CCKW (Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave) that will be passing through the region late next week. It could enhance development potential in the western Caribbean.

[stormlover2013]

Euro don't go 280 hours out !!! That's why it's not showing anything

[Alyono]

Until the Euro shows something it is a phantom

The GFS sniffed out Danielle pretty early and the euro was slow to hop on board.

ECMWF never came on board it showed nothing pretty much there up until landfall. I am not saying it is wrong here but it is not perfect.

EC was showing Danielle several days in advance. At least the full, 150K+ ECMWF was showing a depression at landfall several days prior to genesis