Texas Summer 2016

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.AVIATION...
A few areas of MVFR conditions over areas mainly inland of KIAH
and KSGR will lift between 13Z and 15Z. VFR conditions will then
persist with a surface high pressure ridge providing plenty of
subsidence. Hot temperatures and high pressure will be the main
concerns at the inland terminals through the late afternoon
period. Best chances for MVFR conditions will then be after 09Z
mainly over KCLL, KUTS, and KCXO; although, there is an outside
chance for MVFR at the metro Houston sites. Again, any MVFR
conditions will lift by around 15Z on Saturday morning.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over
northwest Mexico with surface high pressure over the north central
Gulf of Mexico. An 850 mb ridge was located over the northwest
gulf and 850 mb temps were 24c at CRP and 22C at LCH. Max temps
today should again warm into the mid/upper 90s. With the surface
high over the gulf...sfc winds should generally remain s-se so low
level mstr should continue to creep into the region..offset by
drier air aloft mixing to the sfc. In a nut shell...it stays hot
and humid today. Heat index values should be highest along the
I-69 corridor and these values will top out between 107-111
degrees late this afternoon. Will maintain the heat advisory.

Some relief is on the way. The upper ridge begins to push N-NW
towards the 4 corners region. This creates just enough of a
weakness for a weak inverted trough to undercut the ridge and
slide into SE TX. A weak upper level disturbance on the periphery
of the ridge will try to sneak into the region Saturday afternoon
and have added PoPs for the eastern half of the region late in the
day. 500 heights and 850 temps begin to lower on Saturday and
continue to drop through Monday. 850 temps are progged at 24C today
but are expected to cool to 18C by Monday morning. A stronger
inverted trough approaches on Sunday and will bring the area a
good chance of rain. PW values increase to between 1.70 inches
(nw zones) and 2.20 inches (coastal zones) by Sunday evening.
Deeper moisture coupled with the trough and convective temps in
the upper 80s should yield at least scattered shra/tsra. Fcst
soundings how little to no capping. Will maintain high end chance
PoPs for now but likely PoPs may ultimately be required. Some of
the storms could also become strong on Sunday afternoon with CAPE
values over 3000 and LI`s around -8. Lapse rates don`t look
particularly steep but NAM fcst soundings show an inverted V
signature so could get some gusty winds.

The upper ridge becomes centered over Colorado by Monday. Heights
begin to build again and it appears that the ridge will be
displaced far enough north to allow additional shra/tsra on
Monday. The ridge expands a bit eastward on Tues/Wed and heights
build to 596 dm. The GFS and ECMWF differ with regard to rain
chances during the mid week period despite looking similar with
regard to the position and strength of the upper ridge. The GFS
has higher rain chances primarily because it rotates a series of
weak s/wvs on the periphery of the ridge while the ECMWF does not
show these features. Based on the strength and position of the
upper ridge and support from the long range Canadian, have
favored the drier ECMWF for the middle and end of next week. 43

MARINE...
Although moderate southerly winds will affect the marine areas early
this morning, am not expecting Caution or Advisory conditions to
develop over the weekend nor during the first half of the upcoming
week. The pattern generally will be lighter winds during the day
followed by slight stronger winds at night. Locally higher winds and
seas will be possible Saturday night through Monday as an upper
level inverted trough brings chances for showers and thunderstorms.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 75 95 74 92 / 0 0 10 30 30
Houston (IAH) 97 76 96 75 91 / 10 0 20 40 50
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 80 88 / 10 0 20 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...40

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sounds like we could get rain coming from the NE or Easterly direction, that would be cool.

[weatherdude1108]

I would think with the recent rains and wet soils, there would be some kind of feedback loop going on to keep the rains coming. I guess this mammoth high is strong enough to overpower that and evaporate all the water from everything (hence the high heat indices).

The problem with 2011 was that it was already dry in the Spring, and the high provided a feedback loop of heat drying out the soils further, contributing to more heat, etc., etc.

I'm thankful we have that "cushion" of moisture, although that is causing stifling heat indexes of 110 around here. Feels the same regardless.

Thankful our lakes are full going into this heat wave! Hoping the tropics give us relief!

[vbhoutex]

I would think with the recent rains and wet soils, there would be some kind of feedback loop going on to keep the rains coming. I guess this mammoth high is strong enough to overpower that and evaporate all the water from everything (hence the high heat indices).

The problem with 2011 was that it was already dry in the Spring, and the high provided a feedback loop of heat drying out the soils further, contributing to more heat, etc., etc.

I'm thankful we have that "cushion" of moisture, although that is causing stifling heat indexes of 110 around here. Feels the same regardless.

Thankful our lakes are full going into this heat wave! Hoping the tropics give us relief!

SHHHH!!! They might hear you!! Yep you got this right. Not sure I want a tropical solution though!! I guess beggars can't be choosers.

[gpsnowman]

Was driving around Irving just now and can see some clouds building quite nicely all around the area already. Someone might luck out later this afternoon and see some liquid.

[TheProfessor]

It's stupidly humid outside.

[Ntxw]

DFW isn't going to hit 100 in this early season heat wave, but the humidity has made it very uncomfortable.

[gpsnowman]

Well the clouds have thinned a bit. The rain is not coming like I thought earlier. And yes, Ntwx, we might escape June without a 100° reading but with the humidity as high as it is it doesn't matter much. It is just plain 'ole hot. Come on September. I would love to see a summer without any 100's. I'm kidding myself.

[JDawg512]

My concern is how long this extremely strong ridge will stick around? Is this for the long haul of summer or will July provide some sort of respite?

I'd like to hope that we will get something here in Austin over the coming two days but I'm not holding my breath.

[Ntxw]

My concern is how long this extremely strong ridge will stick around? Is this for the long haul of summer or will July provide some sort of respite?

I'd like to hope that we will get something here in Austin over the coming two days but I'm not holding my breath.

This year the heat ridge is going to be stronger compared to the past several years when looking at the US as a whole due to La Nina. The past several years the heat ridges were smaller but center closer to Texas while the rest of the country was relieved. That's why it's getting hotter all around us, not that we're that much cooler.

[TexasSam]

We just had a heck of a electric thunderstorm here. Power was on and off for 45 min. Even some pea size hail. Baytown (East of Houston)

[Kalrany]

We had rain and sunshine simultaneously here on the west side (mission bend).

[JDawg512]

EWX's afternoon discussion hints of a possible change by next weekend. At least it's something else to keep track of. Grasping at straws now lol.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX's afternoon discussion hints of a possible change by next weekend. At least it's something else to keep track of. Grasping at straws now lol.

I saw that same thing. A few weeks ago, we couldn't keep the rain away. How quickly things change.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The Subtropical Ridge persists through Thursday, then lifts north
a little to allow another upper level inverted trough to drift or
stall across Southern Texas Friday through Sunday. Models continue
to trend toward deeper moisture as the trough is forecast to track
further north. Have introduced slight chance POPs near the Coastal
Plains on Friday as the seabreeze should have sufficient moisture
to lift. Areal coverage spreads further west through the weekend.
POPs may have to be raised in later forecasts if the trend toward
deeper moisture continues. The ECMWF also shows nighttime core
rains developing near the center of the trough by early next week.

[Tireman4]

313
FXUS64 KHGX 201410
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
910 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Made some tweeks to forecast based on latest satellite trends
going with generally mostly sunny conditions to start the morning
most zones. With heating would expect cumulus field to develop and
expand with scattered pulse showers and thunderstorms developing
much as they did yesterday. Think coverage should again be
scattered...a bit higher coastal zones than inland...varying from
perhaps 40 pct SE to 20 percent north. 18

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
A couple of disturbances in the deep layer easterly flow and
decent moisture aloft will combine with the sea and bay breeze to
generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
Not a lot of confidence in the forecast models but did utilize the
HRRR and NAM12 for the forecast. Best chances for showers and
storms will be from KIAH to the coast; although, could not rule
out an isolated shower at KCXO. Outside of the rain areas, VFR
expected. Any MVFR exceptions will be around and shortly after
sunrise at the more rural sites.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
At 3 AM, surface high pressure was located over the SE U.S. with
lower pressure over eastern CO. At 850 mb, a strong area of high
pressure was located over the eastern US and a weak trough over
New Mexico. Closer to home, 850 mb dew points were between 12-14C
amd 850 mb temps were below 20 C. At 300 mb...a sprawling ridge
extended from AZ to KS. SE TX lies on the southern edge of the
ridge. The should allow a weak upper level disturbance south of LA
to push west into the region later this aftn. The disturbance
coupled with adequate mstr (PW around 1.80 inches) and daytime
heating should trigger scattered shra/tsra today. Short term
guidance has once again initialized poorly and not much confidence
in their respective outputs. Model of choice today was a blend
between the ECMWF and the GFS. The GFS has been persistent with
bringing a band of high moisture into SE TX on Tuesday. Not sure
what to make of it but the GFS is getting support from the TT WRF
and to a lesser extent the NAM. The GFS and ECMWF look very
similar with the position of an expanding 500 mb ridge but the GFS
keep developing precip. At first glance, felt the ridge would
dominate but fcst soundings show a weak but breakable cap in the
700-500 mb layer and aftn PW values near 2.00 inches. Will
maintain chance PoPS on Tuesday.

The ridge expands across all of Texas by Wednesday. The ridge
weakens a bit as heights fall from 597 dm to 594 dm but the center
of the ridge is so close to SE TX that rain chances should drop
rather quickly. Another weak tropical wave will move into S TX
Thu/Fri and maybe there will be enough moisture on Friday to
warrant a mention of rain Thurs-Sun as the sea breeze might be
able to generate a few shra/tsra.

TROPICS...
TD 4 is expected to move west into Mexico by tonight. The storm
will have little to no impact locally other than some weak swells
propagating into the coastal waters south of Freeport. Rip
currents could become strong further south along the Texas coast.
If the depression strengthens and becomes a named storm, it will
be named Danielle and will be the fourth storm of the season. 43

CLIMATE...
Did you think it was summer already? Me too, but the summer
solstice is at 534 PM CDT this evening. June 20th/21st are the days
with the longest day length (amount of possible daylight) with 14
hours, 3 minutes and 32 seconds. Daylight length begins to
contract (albeit slowly) on June 22nd. 43

MARINE...
Some swells from the tropical depression in the far southern Gulf of
Mexico may work their way far enough north to affect the Upper Texas
coast later today or tonight - mainly west of Freeport. As can be
seen on the satellite water vapor, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today will actually be more associated with the
moisture that moved southward off the coast over the weekend.
Overall, high pressure ridging into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
will keep onshore winds in place through the week with stronger
winds expected during the nighttime periods.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 92 75 93 / 20 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 92 76 91 75 93 / 40 20 40 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 80 89 / 40 30 40 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...18

[Texas Snowman]

And here we go, the summer solstice is at hand. Let the countdown to the winter solstice begin!



-----

@NWSHouston -- The summer solstice is this afternoon at 534 PM CDT. Daylight hours will total a 14 hrs, 3 min and 32 sec. #houwx

[Ntxw]

Days get shorter from here gang

[gboudx]

It's also a strawberry moon.

[1900hurricane]

The trough depicted by the ECMWF that EWX mentions has its origins from the splitting part of the trough currently over Cuba. With all numerical guidance disclaimers in mind at this range, the current modeled track might keep anything interesting confined to the Rio Grande and Pecos river drainages and areas just adjacent.

[rickybobby]

I've been noticing a lot of scorpions on my property in Texas. Someone told me that if scorpions come out it means it's going to rain. Is that true? A few days before the May floods this year I noticed a couple of scorpions roaming in rooms.