2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Somethings gotta give, and I believe it will be the GFS eventually.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Somethings gotta give, and I believe it will be the GFS eventually.

Didn't take long GFS said let us go more west with the storm. lol should be in Epac pretty soon. Depending on when it moves it into the Epac is how far out I will trust it from now on.

[cycloneye]

The big differences between GFS and ECMWF continue at the 12z run of both. Which caves first?

[Yellow Evan]

A few GFS ensembles now bring this into the EPAC.

[SeGaBob]

18Z GFS has a storm stalled out around the southern Texas coastline close to the end of the run. I wouldn't buy it that far out though...

[GeneratorPower]

I would like to point out something about models. Many weather enthusiasts don't understand that models are not just right or wrong. They show you trends. They show you large scale features and approximate how these features will change in the future. A model which shows a storm flop around isn't just confused. It's telling you the steering pattern is not well defined.

I'm not a model expert but I am an engineer with a tiny bit of models and simulation experience for military purposes. I, for one, am not looking at a 10 day model output and betting one model against another as to which one is right. I think it is good to look at general trends.

[Hammy]

I would like to point out something about models. Many weather enthusiasts don't understand that models are not just right or wrong. They show you trends. They show you large scale features and approximate how these features will change in the future. A model which shows a storm flop around isn't just confused. It's telling you the steering pattern is not well defined.

I'm not a model expert but I am an engineer with a tiny bit of models and simulation experience for military purposes. I, for one, am not looking at a 10 day model output and betting one model against another as to which one is right. I think it is good to look at general trends.

I agree, and the GFS trend is why I quit taking the models seriously beyond a week--it has been to develop a storm consistently starting at the 240 hour mark--and it's been this way for a week which is likely convective feedback--the time frame is not getting any closer from run to run.

[Siker]

I would like to point out something about models. Many weather enthusiasts don't understand that models are not just right or wrong. They show you trends. They show you large scale features and approximate how these features will change in the future. A model which shows a storm flop around isn't just confused. It's telling you the steering pattern is not well defined.

I'm not a model expert but I am an engineer with a tiny bit of models and simulation experience for military purposes. I, for one, am not looking at a 10 day model output and betting one model against another as to which one is right. I think it is good to look at general trends.

I agree, and the GFS trend is why I quit taking the models seriously beyond a week--it has been to develop a storm consistently starting at the 240 hour mark--and it's been this way for a week which is likely convective feedback--the time frame is not getting any closer from run to run.

To put an end to the argument that the timeframe is not moving up, here is the 18z GFS from June 18th, with the energy off the Yucatan:



Here is today's 18z for the same time period, with the energy in the same area:



You can check each run in between and you'll find that even though the formation of an actual tropical cyclone varies by a few days on some runs, the disturbance itself is the same. Yes, this disturbance may be a phantom / end up in the EPAC, but it is the same one from run to run.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS dropped this. Shocker.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the GFS giving in to the Euro. Disturbance moving well west into the EPAC.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It can not be trusted outside of 132 hours. At all. ECMWF wins again.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS:

[Alyono]

another failure for MU

[stormlover2013]

Euro is the best like always, gfs can sometimes get lucky but man this model is something else

[RL3AO]

Not to dive into the model war, but if you call out the GFS for over developing the Atlantic system, then don't ignore all the Phantom epac systems the Euro has had and bombed on this month

[NDG]

Not to dive into the model war, but if you call out the GFS for over developing the Atlantic system, then don't ignore all the Phantom epac systems the Euro has had and bombed on this month

Exactly right regarding the Euro over the EPAC, and how about the mid Atlantic storm it kept forecasting run after run that so many people jumped on its wagon and called for subtropical development to affect the NE US.
In another words, the Euro has not been that great either.

[srainhoutx]

Not to dive into the model war, but if you call out the GFS for over developing the Atlantic system, then don't ignore all the Phantom epac systems the Euro has had and bombed on this month

I am still waiting for all those Hurricanes to hit Hawaii last August that the Euro showed. The fact remains that computer models are just guidance. Nothing more, nothing less. And none of them can be trust beyond 3-5 days...if then. I am fully aware of scoring at 500mb between the GFS and ECMWF, but the constant drum beat of King Euro and such by some, including Meteorologists gets old and tiresome. Conditions continue to look favorable as we begin July, particularly across the Western Caribbean Sea and potentially into the Gulf. A stalled boundary is expected to linger across the Northern and NE Gulf Coastal States as a rather deep Eastern trough settles into the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valley Regions and into the Mid Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

The thing with the Euro is it's just generally more right than the GFS.

The European model did show Hawaii landfalls. But when it got a better grip on the steering showing no possible way for a landfall, it dropped those solutions. Unlike the GFS which takes sometimes 24-48 hours to adjust.

The Euro did forecast Joaquin to rake the east coast. But once it got a better grip on the steering it quickly adjusted.

This year, It's only flap was 93E not becoming a TS and that subtropical system.

The GFS really has a lot more flaps than the European model. In a world where we seek perfection, it's easy to see which model doing better.

But of course. People need to stop with viewing computer models as sports teams like R3LAO once said.

[tarheelprogrammer]

All I am saying is I have the ECMWF on my fantasy team as a starter.

[Yellow Evan]

then don't ignore all the Phantom epac systems the Euro has had and bombed on this month

Only phantom storm it really had for extended periods was 93E, which almost formed anyhow.