WPAC: Ex TD AMBO 97W

[cycloneye]

Models don't do much with this area but is something to watch.

[cycloneye]

Low chance from JTWC:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 142.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 231130Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10-15 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10-20 KTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODEST
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 142.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 231130Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10-15 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10-20 KTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODEST
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM, CMC develops this along with 96W. CMC a typhoon into Luzon and does a Fujiwhara with the system in the SCS.

EURO on the other hand doesn't develop this even GFS.

[dexterlabio]

I think GFS and Euro somehow shows development, but there's just a weird setup unfolding. Not sure how to analyze these graphs but it appears 96W and 97W will be merging into one huge but disorganized monsoon depression in SCS this weekend...

[1900hurricane]

To me, 97W appears visually to have better low level vorticity than 96W (which is also supported by CIMSS analysis), but 97W also has to deal with low latitude and an eventual Philippines crossing too. I need to look at guidance a little more in detail, but some members do appear to develop some amalgamation of the two invests in 72-96 hours.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 142.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10-15 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10-15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
MODEST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 138.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 65
NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND IS GRADUALLY
ORGANIZING. A 241158Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
15-20 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
IMPROVING OUTFLOW NOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED AWAY TO THE
NORTHWEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE AT 5-10 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT EXPLICITLY RESOLVING INVEST 97W AT THIS TIME,
BUT INSTEAD DEPICT A BROADER CIRCULATION WHICH INCLUDES INVEST 98W,
BELOW. HOWEVER, THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT INDICATES THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND
IS BETTER DEFINED THAN 98W. A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[RL3AO]

Here is the ASCAT pass from earlier.



Wouldn't be surprised to see a TC within 24 or 48 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks almost good to go, but I'd like to see a little more persistent organization. What I mean is that most of the convection is associated with spiral bands and 97W hasn't been able to maintain organized convection near the center.

[euro6208]

The models has this swallowing or gets absorbed into 96W.

CMC and NAVGEM develops this after crossing the Philippines.

EURO and GFS nothing...

[dexterlabio]

huge blob of convection alert...

[RL3AO]

Rapid scat pass from earlier shows the circulation well away from the area of convection.

[dexterlabio]

I'm more interested about the sudden blow-up of convection a few hours ago...could the center of circulation be right under that cold cloud cover?

[RL3AO]

I'm more interested about the sudden blow-up of convection a few hours ago...could the center of circulation be right under that cold cloud cover?

Doesn't seem like it, but there may be evidence of some kind of trough axis in the area of convection (green circle).

[RL3AO]

Its looking really good today. Seems to be evidence of at least a MLC near the strongest convection.

[dexterlabio]

It seems a TCFA is about to be issued.

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC/#_48_INSTANCE_0SiamlX2KcM6_=https%3A%2F%2Fmetoc.ndbc.noaa.gov%2FProductFeeds-portlet%2Fimg%2Fjtwc%2Fhtml%2Fcoop.jsp%3F

[cycloneye]

JTWC issues a TCFA

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 126.5E TO 18.3N 119.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 252330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 126.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 30 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 133.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. A 251926z 91GHZ SSMIS PASS INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT HAS NOT COMPLETELY CLOSED OFF ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK, LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW THAT MAY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A MID-LATITUDE JET. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LIGHT 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM QUICKLY IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ENOUGH FOR THE CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS ONLY INDICATE A WEAK CIRCULATION MOVING INTO LUZON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WTIHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[1900hurricane]

The low level circulation is elongated on microwave (looks like the primary center is near 130*E with perhaps another weaker one trying to form nearer the convection), and I don't think it is imminently going to develop (at least in the next 24 hours), but it is certainly the best looking thing in the WPac this year aside from 90W/01W.

[dexterlabio]

It's only got less than 24 hours to get organized though before crossing Luzon. Although I am interested about its supposed merging with 96W in the SCS. Funny that it seems 96W is waiting for this one to traverse Luzon.