2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[JaxGator]

I've heard that the CFS is only used for that purpose (sensing weather patterns). I know that GFS and Euro are the most trustworthy. I'm not in any model camp (yet) but I just wait and see what happens and go from there.

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Letting nature take its course. Indeed a wise decision. Models are not always right even inside of 3 days but within 5 days they are usually pretty good. Anything outside of 5 days is hit or miss.

Agreed.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

given the very low global ace so far, as well as the models not predicting much of ANYTHING world wide through the next 2 to 3 weeks, is there a chance that we will see a 1977, 2010, or 2013 type year globally where worldwide ACE is greatly depressed?

[SFLcane]

um...its june 25 wait till mid august.

[1900hurricane]

given the very low global ace so far, as well as the models not predicting much of ANYTHING world wide through the next 2 to 3 weeks, is there a chance that we will see a 1977, 2010, or 2013 type year globally where worldwide ACE is greatly depressed?

It's obviously too early to say for sure, but I've been pondering the same thing recently. The lack of production from the Pacific basins thus far this year has been truly remarkable. In fact, if it weren't for glorified 2015 overflow Hurricane Pali, the NHem tropical Pacific would still be at 0 ACE nearly half-way through the calendar year (albeit the inactive half). Even if a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season were to transpire (and I'm still far from sold we're headed down that road), there's no way it could make up for the Pacific if it continues on this trajectory. Even the ACE generated from the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season would be considered below average for the WPac.

[stormwise]

Offically in the Epac basin its just a month since the its opening. And the westpac in a normal season, july to December is the most active time.

[Kingarabian]

But unlike the WPAC, models are actually trying to form storms in the EPAC. Which means that conditions are not that bad.

[WPBWeather]

um...its june 25 wait till mid august.

I agree. Although some ProMets are down on the season, the ATL activity has been beating most earlier ProMet projections. As for the PAC ACE, who knows? Its was way too hyperactive the last two years IMO --much like the ATL of 2004/05.

[Alyono]

um...its june 25 wait till mid august.

No, it is not. The North Indian and entire Pacific have been dead. 1 storm total since the January storm that somehow threatened Tarawa. That one storm was a 55-65 kt cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

1 storm through the last 6 months. That is VERY unusual

[Alyono]

But unlike the WPAC, models are actually trying to form storms in the EPAC. Which means that conditions are not that bad.

Now, we're close to getting a depression in the WPAC

[NDG]

But unlike the WPAC, models are actually trying to form storms in the EPAC. Which means that conditions are not that bad.

Just because the models forecast activity in EPAC it doesn't mean that conditions are good, one thing is a model forecast the other thing is if they will come to fruition.

[Kingarabian]

But unlike the WPAC, models are actually trying to form storms in the EPAC. Which means that conditions are not that bad.

Just because the models forecast activity in EPAC it doesn't mean that conditions are good, one thing is a model forecast the other thing is if they will come to fruition.

Certainly true.

But I don't remember the models modeling many storms during the down years of the Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

um...its june 25 wait till mid august.

No, it is not. The North Indian and entire Pacific have been dead. 1 storm total since the January storm that somehow threatened Tarawa. That one storm was a 55-65 kt cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

1 storm through the last 6 months. That is VERY unusual

Understood yes but energy will be focused some were. Who cares about the epac lol.. Id say the "western atlantic" will be lighting up as we get into early august/sept if not before. One thing to really look at is cv waves that survive the trek will not not being running into a shear zone as last couple of years. Epac has had its share last few years hopefully its our turn now. Here is to lots of interesting storms in the coming weeks.

[Darvince]

Who cares about the epac lol..

that could literally be this entire site's motto tbh

[weathaguyry]

So true! Lol

[cycloneye]

If you are not seeing the 12z GFS of 6/26/16 at Tropical Tidbits site here is why.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 2m2 minutes ago

http://tropicaltidbits.com seems to be suffering a disk failure. This will mean no plots besides CMC/HRRR/WRF until I figure this out.

[1900hurricane]

um...its june 25 wait till mid august.

No, it is not. The North Indian and entire Pacific have been dead. 1 storm total since the January storm that somehow threatened Tarawa. That one storm was a 55-65 kt cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

1 storm through the last 6 months. That is VERY unusual

Understood yes but energy will be focused some were. Who cares about the epac lol.. Id say the "western atlantic" will be lighting up as we get into early august/sept if not before. One thing to really look at is cv waves that survive the trek will not not being running into a shear zone as last couple of years. Epac has had its share last few years hopefully its our turn now. Here is to lots of interesting storms in the coming weeks.

Why would an entire basin be ignored when the topic at hand is global ACE accumulation (or lack thereof)? The EPac averages more ACE than the NAtl, so depressed activity there would more likely have a greater impact in a global ACE deficit than it would in the NAtl. That's not even taking into account the WPac, which averages over twice the ACE of the EPac, three times the NAtl, and over half of the entire NHemi ACE. That number is still zero, and a correlation does exist between late season starts and WPac basin inactivity, as mentioned by Dr. Jeff Masters

With all of this said, perhaps the ACE thread would be better for further discussion on this topic.

[hurricanehunter69]

given the very low global ace so far, as well as the models not predicting much of ANYTHING world wide through the next 2 to 3 weeks, is there a chance that we will see a 1977, 2010, or 2013 type year globally where worldwide ACE is greatly depressed?

It's obviously too early to say for sure, but I've been pondering the same thing recently. The lack of production from the Pacific basins thus far this year has been truly remarkable. In fact, if it weren't for glorified 2015 overflow Hurricane Pali, the NHem tropical Pacific would still be at 0 ACE nearly half-way through the calendar year (albeit the inactive half). Even if a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season were to transpire (and I'm still far from sold we're headed down that road), there's no way it could make up for the Pacific if it continues on this trajectory. Even the ACE generated from the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season would be considered below average for the WPac.

No doubt about it guys. I am also in utter disbelief. I simply just cannot recall a season with ace this low in the N Hem ( thru June ). WE could be on pace for a N Hem record low, despite(ironically) a record pace in the Atl basin.

[Yellow Evan]

No doubt about it guys. I am also in utter disbelief. I simply just cannot recall a season with ace this low in the N Hem ( thru June ). WE could be on pace for a N Hem record low, despite(ironically) a record pace in the Atl basin.

The low activity isn't too unrealistic. Post-Nino years are like this to a certain extent, so while the ACE values so far may be extreme, I think it'll pick up fairly soon like most post-Nino years.

[cycloneye]

To add more about the Levi site problems here is a note from him.

The primary Tropical Tidbits server just experienced a disk failure. It will take hours for me to get the disk replaced and software reinstalled. This affects all model output except for the CMC, RGEM, HRRR, and WRF models. Thank you for your patience.

[Hammy]

To add more about the Levi site problems here is a note from him.

The primary Tropical Tidbits server just experienced a disk failure. It will take hours for me to get the disk replaced and software reinstalled. This affects all model output except for the CMC, RGEM, HRRR, and WRF models. Thank you for your patience.

The whole site seems to be down now.