2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260504
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorm continue near an elongated
area of low pressure located about 1350 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are not conducive for development during the next day
or two, and any development early next week should be slow to
occur while the low moves to the west or west-northwest at 10-15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

And it's really weak from the 00z Euro @ 144hrs.

But it's rather a large system.

Begins to re-strengthen the system @ 240 hours. Looks like there's another system right next to it that may be the reason for keeping it weak.

[stormwise]

Healthy looking MT.

[Kingarabian]

Euro ensembles are more bullish than the operational model.

GFS is in full over achiever mode.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1450 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are not conducive
for development and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely during
the next several days while the low moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS

[Darvince]

Wat

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS up to 978 mbar at day 10.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF:

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro back to showing a strong TS. 996mb.

12z EPS stronger as well.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is strong with a cat 1 going to 2.NHC should begin to mention it very soon.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS is strong with a cat 1 going to 2.NHC should begin to mention it very soon.

Has it at 953mbar at 228 hours out.

[Kingarabian]

If this system fails to develop then I'll be in season cancel mode.

Because this would literally be the 3rd system out of 4 to not form after being modeled and projected to form.

That being said, if this system forms then it looks like it'll add a healthy amount of ACE.

[stormwise]

Anything modeled out past 110hrs is likely


If this plot is correct the PDO is looking coolish now.

[1900hurricane]

Not yet per CDAS analysis. While perhaps not as staunch as previously, the anomalous warm water horseshoe backed against the North American continent associated with a +PDO regime is still rather noticeable.

[Darvince]

I wouldn't really say that the PDO has flipped until the area north of Hawai'i is consistently warm. Although it is definitely a much weaker signal than it was in the past months, especially April.

[stormwise]

removed chart.

[Kingarabian]

I think you're looking at the SST values rather than the anomalies which correctly display the warm horseshoe.

SST's by Alaska are for sure super cold.

[1900hurricane]

If you'd rather, here are are SSTAs relative to 1980-2010 climatology, although I prefer using the other one because you can see specific features better when they aren't all washed out by warm anomalies.



Equatorial Indian Ocean temps west of 60*E are only hanging out around 26*C on your WeatherBell (if I'm not mistaken) analysis, which isn't particularly warm for the tropics. These values also line up very nicely with the CDAS SST analysis from Tropical Tidbits.

[stormwise]

I actually forgot its against the the rules to post a weatherbell grafic you alerted to here. Although not sure you did.


BOMS plot.