2016 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS came into better agreement with the Euro of showing that 1st storm. Not as strong as the Euro, but it's there. So I think if the 06z GFS comes more in line with the Euro then the NHC will need another yellow marker.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF at day 10 with 3 systems.

[Kingarabian]

What a ccKW event.

[Yellow Evan]

00z GFS came into better agreement with the Euro of showing that 1st storm. Not as strong as the Euro, but it's there. So I think if the 06z GFS comes more in line with the Euro then the NHC will need another yellow marker.

Agreed.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS ensembles show a thingy near Soccoro Island, that's the right system the GFS was developing but not the ECMWF. Judging by that maybe future GFS will show less interaction. I also suspect a storm that ECMWF/GEFS have by day 10 will pop up in the GFS in a run or two.

[Kingarabian]

0z GFS ensembles show a thingy near Soccoro Island, that's the right system the GFS was developing but not the ECMWF. Judging by that maybe future GFS will show less interaction. I also suspect a storm that ECMWF/GEFS have by day 10 will pop up in the GFS in a run or two.

Looks like the GFS or the Euro have a low mixed up with the expected behemoth that they've been showing. Disagreement on timing or if the first area of low pressure is absorbed or not.

[stormwise]

Strong signal.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS 923 mbs

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific later today, and
then induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of the
disturbance through this weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NDG]

https://i.imgsafe.org/226d3f21f1.gif
Strong signal.

I wouldn't bet not even a penny on the NCEP model being correct with the MJO.
The Euro usually does a better job forecasting the MJO.

[Kingarabian]

GFS actually down to 920Mb.

Still a lot of discrepancies on what low will develop first and the exact location of that development.

[cycloneye]

Already in the water.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS 288 hours out

[Yellow Evan]

Left ECMWF storm now making an appearance on the GEFS.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS begins the development of the monster in 90 hours.




126 hours

[cycloneye]

At 144 hours it continues to get stronger and a new development is behind.

[cycloneye]

At 168 hours the biggie is down to 971 mbs but the development behind weakens as it is affected by the larger one.

[cycloneye]

Down to 952 mbs at 192 hours.

[AJC3]

20KM GFS bottoms out at 929MB at H216

[cycloneye]

Tony,lower than that,922 mbs. Is the lowest on this run.