2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

To add more about the Levi site problems here is a note from him.

The primary Tropical Tidbits server just experienced a disk failure. It will take hours for me to get the disk replaced and software reinstalled. This affects all model output except for the CMC, RGEM, HRRR, and WRF models. Thank you for your patience.

The whole site seems to be down now.

Not the whole site is down as current storm info/Analysis tools sections are working.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the Tropical Tidbits site has been fixed.Levi has a note about the fix.

The primary plotting server suffered a disk failure earlier today. The server is now back online, but it will be playing catch-up on model plots through this evening. Thank you for your patience.

[gatorcane]

Global models are depicting a swath of low shear conditions across the Gulf, Florida, and Bahamas area starting late this week into the weekend. As of now, there does not look to be any disturbance to take advantage of this good upper environment, but something to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Good conditions but still very quiet at least with the models in the Atlantic. Seems like we may be quiet throughout July. I know that is a long ways off but things appear to be in the typical quiet part of the season which is July.

[JaxGator]

Sometimes things can happen quickly in the tropics and weather in general but it's likely to be quiet as the models are showing.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the 18zGFS has a low form near the Cape Verdes at 14 days but also had the same feature in the 12Z run but weaker so we have it coming in some but we have to watch to see if it comes in or completely disappears in future runs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[stormwise]

EPS probs from 24hrs out to 240hrs, has many 20-30% spinup chances along the ITCZ starting from Cape Verdes.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[RL3AO]

I'm gonna make the argument that the GFS didn't totally bomb the system it was developing. It maybe just developed it a bit too early causing it to go NW from S America.

[NDG]

I have been saying that it was not that the GFS was forecasting a ghost storm that would never come to fruition, IMO its problem was that it was not handling 500mb heights correctly. It was showing a weakness over the GOM and southern US, thus for the tropical wave(s) to gain latitude over the Caribbean and head towards the GOM versus what we are seeing now a stronger ridging across the Caribbean/GOM making the tropical waves track towards the EPAC and develop there.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS and CMC hinting at development occurring in the MDR in about 10 days. So it is very long range but both seem to be hinting at something in their long range. GFS takes it north of Puerto Rico.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and CMC hinting at development occurring in the MDR in about 10 days. So it is very long range but both seem to be hinting at something in their long range. GFS takes it north of Puerto Rico.

6z/12z GFS doesn't have any closed lows in that timeframe actually.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS and CMC hinting at development occurring in the MDR in about 10 days. So it is very long range but both seem to be hinting at something in their long range. GFS takes it north of Puerto Rico.

6z/12z GFS doesn't have any closed lows in that timeframe actually.

Yeah timing seems off. GFS in the 300+ range and CMC appears to develop the same wave earlier. CMC always develops every spin.

[Darvince]

GFS and CMC hinting at development occurring in the MDR in about 10 days. So it is very long range but both seem to be hinting at something in their long range. GFS takes it north of Puerto Rico.

All I see during that timeframe is a very vigorous wave crossing through the MDR.

[WPBWeather]

GFS and CMC hinting at development occurring in the MDR in about 10 days. So it is very long range but both seem to be hinting at something in their long range. GFS takes it north of Puerto Rico.

All I see during that timeframe is a very vigorous wave crossing through the MDR.

You and other knowledgeable ProMets see the same thing. We will probably will not have to wait until August. Check Weather Underground post today for some interesting observations.

[stormwise]

[quote="stormwise"]EPS probs from 24hrs out to 240hrs, has many 20-30% spinup chances along the ITCZ starting from Cape Verdes.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... PE=Instant

[Hammy]

EPS probs from 24hrs out to 240hrs, has many 20-30% spinup chances along the ITCZ starting from Cape Verdes.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... PE=Instant

Latest Euro is showing a closed low coming off of Africa in about nine days (still far out) but I believe this is the first time it's shown a wave this strong in the runs, and that would line up with the development probabilities from yesterday timeframe-wise.

[WPBWeather]

EPS probs from 24hrs out to 240hrs, has many 20-30% spinup chances along the ITCZ starting from Cape Verdes.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... PE=Instant

Latest Euro is showing a closed low coming off of Africa in about nine days (still far out) but I believe this is the first time it's shown a wave this strong in the runs, and that would line up with the development probabilities from yesterday timeframe-wise.

Will it hit the "permanent trough" or "Texas Death ridge"?? Stay tuned!!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Latest Euro is showing a closed low coming off of Africa in about nine days (still far out) but I believe this is the first time it's shown a wave this strong in the runs, and that would line up with the development probabilities from yesterday timeframe-wise.

Will it hit the "permanent trough" or "Texas Death ridge"?? Stay tuned!!

Nope it will hit the Caribbean shear death trap.

[TheAustinMan]

Here is that wave indicated on the ECMWF at the far range. Note that even if the Euro is a generally a more accurate model, it is still prone to wide variations run-to-run. Stay tuned.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here is that wave indicated on the ECMWF at the far range. Note that even if the Euro is a generally a more accurate model, it is still prone to wide variations run-to-run. Stay tuned.

Latest GFS run showing that same wave at the same time but then makes it disappear. Places a ridge over Texas if I am not mistaken and blasts the Caribbean with tons of shear for awhile. Could be wrong but has been consistent in showing this in run after run.