Texas Summer 2016

[weatherdude1108]

12z GFS run looks interesting for the Houston area. I've noticed a tropical system consistently showing up in the medium to long-term model runs. If this were true, Austin would be on the desert-dry end.

[Tireman4]

Cat 5 in the Gulf!! LOL

[weatherdude1108]

[Brent]

We need a tropical threat to liven up this place...

how about a stalled tropical cyclone just offshore the coast for days?

[1900hurricane]

Well, I wouldn't mind...

[Ntxw]

Summer here is the most boring season ever I swear. At least we haven't hit 100 yet . Small chances for rain this week and more 90s...it hasn't been hot enough to consider a bonafide heat wave, more of just seasonal typical hellish Texas summer.

September can't come soon enough.

[Texas Snowman]

I feel reasonably confident that there will be a tropical threat or two along the Texas Gulf Coast this summer or early fall. If that happens, it will provide some interesting discussion for sure.

Can you imagine how lit up this forum would become if we had another Rita, Celia or Carla threatening the Texas coastline?

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ntxw"]Summer here is the most boring season ever I swear. At least we haven't hit 100 yet . Small chances for rain this week and more 90s...it hasn't been hot enough to consider a bonafide heat wave, more of just seasonal typical hellish Texas summer.



September can't come soon enough.[/quot



Sing it brother. I am outside. Under a tent. At a swim meet. You already know I loathe SumMer. Now you know I had it.

[Brent]

Summer here is the most boring season ever I swear. At least we haven't hit 100 yet . Small chances for rain this week and more 90s...it hasn't been hot enough to consider a bonafide heat wave, more of just seasonal typical hellish Texas summer.

September can't come soon enough.

I know right... the heat isn't THAT terrible at least, but it's just... the same thing everyday. It's only been a couple of weeks and I'm already zzzzz.

Please let there be something tropical threaten.

[JDawg512]

At least it's cloudy and cooler today here in Austin. Scattered showers around but so far none have moved over my house.

Seems like the models are struggling with what may happen this week. We either have some instability or the high pressure ridge takes hold. I know well enough that high pressure usually wins out. Even if a weak frontal boundary happens to make it close enough by mid week, something tells me that the high will just be strong enough to block it.

[Shoshana]

I was surprised when I saw a few raindrops in Round Rock around 6pm today. No evidence of rain at our house though.

[weatherdude1108]

We had about 0.01 today from scattered raindrops. Did feel less hot today. I ran my sprinklers to take advantage of the extra humidity and less evaporation.

[JDawg512]

I ended up with about the same by the evening. 0.01

That little low really started spinning up overnight as it moved north. West Texas is getting some nice rains and the good news is a lot of that is falling over the upper Colorado River basin. Kinda looks like the circulation is nudging a little to the east.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the Euro, our first widespread 100F days could be on the horizon early July.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking at the Euro, our first widespread 100F days could be on the horizon early July.

Beautiful! I was looking forward to our first 100-degree day!!

[Brent]

Looking at the Euro, our first widespread 100F days could be on the horizon early July.

How wonderful! Not.

We've been above normal for 2 weeks now and July looks to open hot too.

[gpsnowman]

Big blob of rain moving into Irving with some thunder. Nice to see. Heard some thunder but no rain yet.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking at the Euro, our first widespread 100F days could be on the horizon early July.

How wonderful! Not.

We've been above normal for 2 weeks now and July looks to open hot too.

What happened to our 2007 analog?? I guess it went "POOOF," kind of like Tropical Storm Don in 2011.

Tropical Storm Don – the first tropical storm of 2011 to make landfall in the U.S. – was the strangest system I have ever seen. In fact, a lot of meteorologists were shocked to see how fast it dissipated over portions of southern Texas.
Here’s what the National Hurricane Center posted:

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011

400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO CONVECTION…MEAGER RAINFALL…AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A RAINFALL THREAT.

FORECASTER BLAKE
In other words, the National Hurricane Center summarized it all in that paragraph alone. That’s unusual.

As for rainfall, forget about it. The projected rainfall totals were supposed to be around 2-4 inches, but that never happened. Brownsville, Texas recorded 0.63 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Don, and the farther north you went, the less rainfall you saw. Corpus Christi recorded a pathetic 0.02 inches of rain from Don.

http://earthsky.org/earth/tropical-stor ... isappoints

[TexasBreeze]

Seems the wet soils don't make a difference with suppressing the strong ridge. It is still close enough to keep it hot and dry for overall in TX and will become right over us (s.e. TX) for the next couple at least weeks. With LA nina setting shop, it may be setting up seeds for a dry 2017.

[Brent]

Looking at the Euro, our first widespread 100F days could be on the horizon early July.

How wonderful! Not.

We've been above normal for 2 weeks now and July looks to open hot too.

What happened to our 2007 analog?? I guess it went "POOOF," kind of like Tropical Storm Don in 2011

The analogs have been just awful for awhile now...