Texas Summer 2016

[Ntxw]

How wonderful! Not.

We've been above normal for 2 weeks now and July looks to open hot too.

What happened to our 2007 analog?? I guess it went "POOOF," kind of like Tropical Storm Don in 2011

The analogs have been just awful for awhile now...

They have been and they have shifted season to season. I think part of the problem is ENSO transitions. The La Nina to be is not progressing very well. We are stuck in neutral and predictability with those is low.

Still seeing wide scale 100+ early July

[1900hurricane]

Vacationing on the shore of Lake Travis right now, just in time for Mabry to hit 100*F for the first time this year (I think). It's significantly cooler now though with lots of thunderstorms springing up.

[weatherdude1108]

Pooring here at work in north Austin. Looks like my house has been getting heavy rain/storm for a solid 45 minutes in south Cedar Park. Curious to see what we have picked up once I get home. Lots of lightning with this. Thankful for the rain!

[weatherdude1108]

1.19 inches this afternoon at the Weatherdude HQ. Most of that fell in 30 to 45 minutes. Softened and closed the soil cracks. Very nice!

[Ralph's Weather]

I sure hope I can get some rain at some point this summer. Parts of my yard that receive direct sun have started going brown so having to start watering it. Normally I don't have to worry about that until late summer.

[wxman57]

Looks like summer gets going in full force this weekend. ECMWF had a big ridge developing over the central Gulf Coast with 850mb temps that signal triple digits for much of Texas by early next week. The ridge drifts east by the 8th, allowing an inverted trof to move off the Gulf and into Texas by then. That could give us some rain and cooler temps for the weekend of the 9th-10th.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like summer gets going in full force this weekend. ECMWF had a big ridge developing over the central Gulf Coast with 850mb temps that signal triple digits for much of Texas by early next week. The ridge drifts east by the 8th, allowing an inverted trof to move off the Gulf and into Texas by then. That could give us some rain and cooler temps for the weekend of the 9th-10th.

Please let it be so (9th - 10th)! I know we are heading into the climatological doldrums in Texas (good biking weather I guess), but it always makes it nice to look forward to relief IMO. I have been jogging in the early morning (5 - 6am) before the sun comes up. Humid, but very nice considering! I see people running and biking during the mid-afternoon sometimes. I don't understand that personally, unless that is the only time they can do it. Seems dangerous with that kind of heat radiating off the asphalt/concrete.

[Ntxw]

Yeah as mentioned for some days now, summer ridge setting up shop for holiday weekend/week. It will move east and center in the southeast later though so we'll get flow back from the gulf after hopefully. Wild card to watch will be the hurricane forecasted in the coming days in the Epac. No direct effects for us but you never know if mid level moisture streams up or knocks around the ridge.

[Tireman4]

Looks like summer gets going in full force this weekend. ECMWF had a big ridge developing over the central Gulf Coast with 850mb temps that signal triple digits for much of Texas by early next week. The ridge drifts east by the 8th, allowing an inverted trof to move off the Gulf and into Texas by then. That could give us some rain and cooler temps for the weekend of the 9th-10th.

Please let it be so (9th - 10th)! I know we are heading into the climatological doldrums in Texas (good biking weather I guess), but it always makes it nice to look forward to relief IMO. I have been jogging in the early morning (5 - 6am) before the sun comes up. Humid, but very nice considering! I see people running and biking during the mid-afternoon sometimes. I don't understand that personally, unless that is the only time they can do it. Seems dangerous with that kind of heat radiating off the asphalt/concrete.

Yeah me either. Nope. Nope. Nope. I will run and bike inside. It is 78 degrees in my house, so it aint cold. I will take my chances inside.

[gboudx]

I have been jogging in the early morning (5 - 6am) before the sun comes up. Humid, but very nice considering! I see people running and biking during the mid-afternoon sometimes. I don't understand that personally, unless that is the only time they can do it. Seems dangerous with that kind of heat radiating off the asphalt/concrete.

It is dangerous. With running, you should dress like the air temp is 15-20 degrees warmer. The math says the runners are likely to experience heat exhaustion, if not a heat stroke. I mostly run after 5pm, but only on a nature trail that is heavily shaded, and never more than about 3 miles. I hate running on treadmills. I feel off-balance and not in control of my stride.

[JDawg512]

1.19 inches this afternoon at the Weatherdude HQ. Most of that fell in 30 to 45 minutes. Softened and closed the soil cracks. Very nice!

Your lucky! All that fell over my house was a measly 0.26 but just 2 miles east of here a lot more fell. It's my watering day so I'm gonna go ahead and do it. 0.26 will dry up within a couple of days and would like to have the water from the sprinkler actually soak down in rather than trying to soften the top layer up on Saturday.

I've also stopped mowing and the last time mowed at the highest setting so at least the yard is still green. I don't get why some people chop off their grass this time of year and they wonder why their yards go brown. I'd rather keep my grass high and green than short and brown plus higher grass protects the roots from the sun and you don't have to water as much.

[Texas Snowman]

According to KXII TV met Steve LaNore, it rained 2.36 inches in Gainesville on Monday night (a half-hour to my west).

And it looked like it rained an inch or two about 10 miles from my house in Denison. There was standing water everywhere, several inches of water in the bar ditches along Hwy. 289 and plenty of wet ground in central and western Grayson County.

It thundered a few times at my house and there was a bit of lightning nearby. But not one single drop of rain fell in D-Town, on my yard at least.

[DonWrk]

According to KXII TV met Steve LaNore, it rained 2.36 inches in Gainesville on Monday night (a half-hour to my west).

And it looked like it rained an inch or two about 10 miles from my house in Denison. There was standing water everywhere, several inches of water in the bar ditches along Hwy. 289 and plenty of wet ground in central and western Grayson County.

It thundered a few times at my house and there was a bit of lightning nearby. But not one single drop of rain fell in D-Town, on my yard at least.

Rained 2.3 in Gainesville, 1.25 inches between Collinsville and whitesboro, and 1.14 in Dorchester just east of here but hardly nothing but sprinkles here.

[weatherdude1108]

1.19 inches this afternoon at the Weatherdude HQ. Most of that fell in 30 to 45 minutes. Softened and closed the soil cracks. Very nice!

Your lucky! All that fell over my house was a measly 0.26 but just 2 miles east of here a lot more fell. It's my watering day so I'm gonna go ahead and do it. 0.26 will dry up within a couple of days and would like to have the water from the sprinkler actually soak down in rather than trying to soften the top layer up on Saturday.

I've also stopped mowing and the last time mowed at the highest setting so at least the yard is still green. I don't get why some people chop off their grass this time of year and they wonder why their yards go brown. I'd rather keep my grass high and green than short and brown plus higher grass protects the roots from the sun and you don't have to water as much.

1.19 inches this afternoon at the Weatherdude HQ. Most of that fell in 30 to 45 minutes. Softened and closed the soil cracks. Very nice!

Your lucky! All that fell over my house was a measly 0.26 but just 2 miles east of here a lot more fell. It's my watering day so I'm gonna go ahead and do it. 0.26 will dry up within a couple of days and would like to have the water from the sprinkler actually soak down in rather than trying to soften the top layer up on Saturday.

I've also stopped mowing and the last time mowed at the highest setting so at least the yard is still green. I don't get why some people chop off their grass this time of year and they wonder why their yards go brown. I'd rather keep my grass high and green than short and brown plus higher grass protects the roots from the sun and you don't have to water as much.

Yeah, that was lucky. My boss who lives in south Austin only got 0.25. My dad in SA got a trace. Yeah, having a lawn is a complete waste of resources. You water it, it gets long, then chop it off, and start over.
Mowing high is the best way.

[weatherdude1108]

Hmmm.

As of now, it appears to me the month of July will be very hot with numerous 100 degree temperatures and very little rainfall. Get ready for a long stretch of hot and dry weather.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

Hmmm.

As of now, it appears to me the month of July will be very hot with numerous 100 degree temperatures and very little rainfall. Get ready for a long stretch of hot and dry weather.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

NBC 5's 10 day forecast just now was just horrible...way too many 100's. No relief in sight.

I am STILL waiting for the "cool" summer... two years in a row now.

[JDawg512]

Hmmm.

As of now, it appears to me the month of July will be very hot with numerous 100 degree temperatures and very little rainfall. Get ready for a long stretch of hot and dry weather.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

NBC 5's 10 day forecast just now was just horrible...way too many 100's. No relief in sight.

I am STILL waiting for the "cool" summer... two years in a row now.

We won't likely see many cooler than average summers going forward as the entire planet is warming, however that doesn't mean we won't see any. They will just become even more rare than they already are.

Who knows, maybe July will be the hottest part of this summer and we get some sort of tropical system or a trough going into August that would help to cool things off. We can only hope.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011517
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1017 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Made some tweaks to the going forecast, mainly to cover the on-
going radar trends. Starting to see a bit more development over
the central counties with the return of onshore winds/increased
moisture from the Gulf. Did raise POPS a bit this afternoon for
most inland locations as we still have a lot more daytime heat-
ing to go. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Some showers and thunderstorms are developing early this morning
mainly across parts of our southern coastal waters. Once again
this morning, most of the high resolution models have gotten this
development right, so have our area`s highest rain chances
currently across the waters gradually spreading inland during the
day today. At this time, only carrying 20-30% POPs. Still looking
for gradual drying across Southeast Texas over the holiday weekend
as ridging aloft builds across the area. A majority of available
model time sections indicate the drying air mass over the weekend
will remain dry for much of next week. This will help to warm area
temperatures (especially overnight lows) up several degrees. With
strengthening south winds developing across our area in response
to a surface high off to our east and lower pressures off to our
west and northwest, expect to see higher dew points through the
period resulting in rising heat index values. It still looks like
afternoon readings could peak into a 105-110 range, and heat
advisories might be needed. 42

CLIMATE...
June 2016 ended up being the 7th wettest June on record for the Houston
area with 13.12 inches of rain (10.72 inches of that total fell during
the first five days of the month). For the first half of the year, the
42.07 inch total (which is 17.75 inches above normal) stands as the
third wettest first half of the year. The two wetter years were 1993
(43.33 inches) and 2004 (45.04 inches).

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 95 77 96 / 20 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 95 / 30 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 83 89 / 30 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Brent]

Not a good first half:

[Ntxw]

As warm as it will get next week its still only considered seasonably hot. 97-101 is not a true heat wave by Texas standards. Optimism. Really still just your average Texas summer hell. And with lower dewpoints, might not get to heat advisory as we did around the solstice.