EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

EP, 94, 2016062806, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016062812, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016062818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016062900, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016062906, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016062912, , BEST, 0, 82N, 955W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016062918, , BEST, 0, 82N, 970W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016063000, , BEST, 0, 82N, 985W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016063006, , BEST, 0, 82N, 1000W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016063012, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1015W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 94, 2016063018, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1030W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP942016  06/30/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    25    31    38    50    64    76    88    91    93    93    94
V (KT) LAND       20    21    25    31    38    50    64    76    88    91    93    93    94
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    21    23    25    31    40    52    66    79    87    89    92
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     3     7    13    18    22    20    11     7     7    11    10    16
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0    -2    -5    -8    -9    -8    -1     0     6     3     5     4
SHEAR DIR        275    44    81    87    84    80    76    63    52    51    63    67    44
SST (C)         29.7  29.7  29.8  29.8  29.7  29.8  29.8  29.9  29.5  29.1  27.6  27.3  28.6
POT. INT. (KT)   164   163   162   161   159   158   160   163   163   160   144   140   151
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2   0.0   0.0  -0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1   0.0   0.4   0.8   0.8
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     7     6     7     7     7     7     8     8     6     7     8
700-500 MB RH     82    81    82    82    81    81    79    78    73    72    68    69    64
MODEL VTX (KT)     7     8     9    10    12    13    16    17    20    22    24    25    28
850 MB ENV VOR    -3     0     0    -2     2     1    13     0    -7   -19     7    48    66
200 MB DIV        65    76    87    79    59    53   110   150   128    53    28    -4    59
700-850 TADV       0    -1    -2    -1    -1    -1     2     1     0    -7    -7    -4    -6
LAND (KM)        929   946   960   970   986   984   953   848   712   743   891  1234  1544
LAT (DEG N)      9.0   9.4   9.7   9.8   9.8   9.9  10.0  10.9  13.0  15.4  16.4  15.7  13.8
LONG(DEG W)    103.0 104.3 105.3 105.9 106.3 106.5 106.0 105.7 107.1 110.6 115.0 119.1 121.3
STM SPEED (KT)    14    12     8     5     3     1     4     8    17    22    21    18    12
HEAT CONTENT      22    27    36    40    41    41    41    41    43    25     7    24    22

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  663  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           13.8

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   5.  14.  22.  29.  33.  35.  36.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   1.   2.   5.   8.  11.  12.  12.  12.  12.  12.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.   5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   5.   7.  11.  13.  18.  20.  21.  22.  23.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   5.  11.  18.  30.  44.  56.  68.  71.  73.  73.  74.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:    9.0   103.0

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST     06/30/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   141.6      40.3  to  144.5       0.97         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    33.2       0.0  to   75.9       0.44         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    17.5      38.9  to    2.1       0.58         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     9.4      18.9  to    1.4       0.54         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    73.2     -11.0  to  135.3       0.58         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):     9.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.89         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.0       2.1  to   -1.7       0.56         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     6.3%   20.2%   17.8%    5.2%    2.6%   12.9%    9.3%
    Bayesian:     0.2%    6.7%    2.3%    0.3%    0.1%    0.5%    3.4%
   Consensus:     2.2%    9.0%    6.7%    1.8%    0.9%    4.5%    4.2%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST     06/30/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF developing same system a little more east.

[JaxGator]

Wow.

That's a sharp spike in intensity. Wow indeed.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF day eight I really don't know what is going on and what is/isn't 94E. Different from the 0z run on many levels.

[Yellow Evan]

Think the system near the CPAC is 94E actually but seems off for a few reason. The 12z seems to move too fast compared to the 0z run (but closer to the GFS) and the fact that the system is large as it is and the ECMWF has 94E quite small and with it being further west is likely to feel the effects of a CCKW first, and hence be stronger.

[cycloneye]

It looks like is already organizing.

[Alyono]

18Z MU is significantly weaker through 102 hours

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS through 102 hours.

[cycloneye]

Interaction with low in front is the cause of the very weaker run.

[Yellow Evan]

Interaction with low in front is the cause of the very weaker run.

And hence the more northerly track.

[Kingarabian]

Which is what the Euro was showing a day ago - interaction with the first low..

[cycloneye]

Big failure to develop 94E.Maybe is this 18z run that was bad and at 00z it has it back stronger as in past runs.We will see what occurs.

[Kingarabian]

Big failure to develop 94E.Maybe is this 18z run that was bad and at 00z it has it back stronger as in past runs.We will see what occurs.

Possibly. Right now the NHC doesn't have that low becoming much or else they would have a yellow marker.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[gatorcane]

Quite a change indeed on that 18Z GFS run. How can the model change that much between two runs? The Euro has always been showing only gradual development due to low interaction.

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 07/01/16 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 34 39 51 64 74 80 79 79 78 73
V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 34 39 51 64 74 80 79 79 78 73
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 23 25 27 34 42 51 60 67 71 70 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 7 12 15 20 20 15 10 9 12 11 9 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -5 -9 -9 -5 -2 0 0 1 1 4
SHEAR DIR 95 96 87 81 75 87 87 86 47 34 14 13 333
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.0 26.6 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 161 160 159 160 162 162 161 157 146 133 116
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 3
700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 81 81 80 77 74 71 72 68 67 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 5 11 8 9 1 4 -11 -21 -13 9 -3
200 MB DIV 85 87 82 66 57 65 127 104 67 10 21 2 11
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 2 -1 -2 0 0 -2
LAND (KM) 934 939 949 953 951 914 854 787 744 801 819 921 1108
LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.5 11.1 12.1 13.5 14.8 16.3 17.6 18.7
LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.6 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.3 106.9 108.4 110.8 113.5 116.8 120.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 6 3 2 2 5 8 12 14 16 18 21
HEAT CONTENT 24 32 38 41 41 41 42 44 26 22 13 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 31. 44. 54. 60. 59. 59. 58. 53.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 103.8

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.97 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.46 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.59 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 11.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 22.9% 38.1% 42.6% 17.9% 11.8% 38.8% 35.9%
Bayesian: 1.9% 13.7% 6.6% 1.6% 0.4% 4.1% 13.2%
Consensus: 8.2% 17.3% 16.4% 6.5% 4.1% 14.3% 16.4%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[stormwise]

http://mapmaker2.aos.wisc.edu/jape/00z/dnviflash.html
Both ends of the pacific to spinup, Taiwan to get hit?.

[euro6208]

http://mapmaker2.aos.wisc.edu/jape/00z/dnviflash.html
Both ends of the pacific to spinup, Taiwan to get hit?.

Many models indicating a typhoon to swamp Taiwan.