2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS day 16 (some frames are missing from Levi's site and idk why).

[cycloneye]

We have INVEST 94E

[Yellow Evan]

A bit weaker with the 10/10 this 12z ECMWF run through day 5.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF has the system behind 94E into a monster hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS day 16

[cycloneye]

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to only
marginally favorable environmental conditions while the system
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Kingarabian]

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to only
marginally favorable environmental conditions while the system
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A 1010 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough near
13N116W. Only gentle to moderate winds are observed near the low.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within
270 nm ne and within 180 nm sw quadrants of the low. The current
environment is not favorable for rapid development. The low is
forecast to reach near 13N117W on Fri, and near 14N119W on Sat.
As the low continues west to near 16N121W on Sun the gradient
should tighten within 180 nm over the nnw semicircle supporting
fresh n-ne winds with seas building to 9 ft.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like we should have 95E fairly soon.




Question is... which invest will develop first?

[stormwise]

631

WTNT80 EGRR 010417



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.07.2016



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.9N 105.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.07.2016 12.9N 105.6W WEAK

12UTC 02.07.2016 14.1N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.07.2016 15.1N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.07.2016 15.9N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.07.2016 16.6N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.07.2016 17.2N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.07.2016 17.8N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.07.2016 18.1N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.07.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 14.5N 119.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 03.07.2016 14.9N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.07.2016 15.4N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.07.2016 15.7N 123.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.07.2016 15.8N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.07.2016 16.1N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.07.2016 15.4N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.07.2016 14.7N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.07.2016 14.9N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.07.2016 14.2N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 9.9N 90.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.07.2016 9.9N 91.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.07.2016 10.3N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.07.2016 10.3N 95.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 010417

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become better organized since yesterday, and
satellite wind data indicate that the circulation has become
better defined. Some additional development of this system is
possible during the next couple days as it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, environmental conditions
are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

Wow,what you see is another major behind 94E.

[Yellow Evan]

Make that two hurricanes after 94E.

[cycloneye]

Wow,EPAC goes bonkers if GFS is right.5 systems.

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to become better defined. However, the associated shower
activity is currently poorly organized. Some additional development
of this system is possible during the next couple days as it moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Yellow Evan]

1z GFS day 16

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has an outbreak like GFS.

[cycloneye]

It will be fun to track the EPAC during the next 2 weeks as long any of them stay as big fishes.

[TheStormExpert]

This should change FAST! With the models going bonkers showing 3-4 Tropical Cyclones in the next 2 weeks.

Also where is TD #1 on the map?

 https://twitter.com/nhc_pacific/status/748978778261622784

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS day 9

[stormwise]

shemozzle