EPAC: AGATHA - Post-Tropical

[TheAustinMan]

You can see the circulation centers at the mid- (blue) and low- (orange/red) levels of the atmosphere quite distinctly separate on false-color RGB visible imagery.

[Kingarabian]

They should classify this system ASAP.

If those sheared messes in the Atlantic and GOM can be classified then so can this storm.

[1900hurricane]

There is quite a bit of dry air (turquoise and non-convective green wedges) circling 95E.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Undoubtedly ready for an upgrade. Now the question becomes whether or not it reaches tropical storm intensity by 0z on July 3 (5pm PDT tomorrow) to deny 2016 the honor of holding the record for latest formation of 1st tropical storm.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, convection increasing

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 020232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016
0300 UTC SAT JUL 02 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 116.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 116.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 120.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 122.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 124.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020232
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 01 2016

ASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the low pressure area
several hundred miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula had
developed a well-defined circulation. Deep convection, although
currently sheared to the west of the low-level center, has become
more organized throughout the day, and TAFB and SAB have both given
the system classifications of T1.5. Advisories are being initiated
on a new tropical depression, with the 25-kt initial intensity based
on the Dvorak estimates and ASCAT data.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the
south of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain
relatively stationary, with the cyclone forecast to continue
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. There are some
speed differences, however, with the ECMWF showing a slightly faster
motion compared with the other track models. The NHC official
forecast is a little faster than the consensus model trackers, which
did not include the ECMWF solution on this forecast cycle. After 48
hours, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn westward and then
west-southwestward by day 5.

The depression only has a small window of opportunity to strengthen.
Vertical shear is forecast to be low during the next 36 hours and
then increase significantly in 2 to 3 days. In addition, the
cyclone should move over water colder than 26 degrees Celsius and
into a much drier mid-level environment in about 36 hours.
Therefore, only modest strengthening to tropical storm strength is
shown in the NHC official forecast in the first day or two, followed
by weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by day 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 14.7N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.1N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.8N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 17.1N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 17.7N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 17.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[1900hurricane]

Classification, yeah!

[Kingarabian]

Classification, yeah!

Has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm right now. Hopefully ADT numbers come in higher to justify an upgrade.

[cycloneye]

Interesting to see if this Tropical Cyclone affects 94E in the track and intensity because of shear but I think being a weak and short lived storm expected, not much effect occurs.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting to see if this Tropical Cyclone affects 94E in the track and intensity because of shear but I think being a weak and short lived storm expected not much effect occurs.

Has a very short window for development. Strong shear to the west, a lot of dry air, and the decreasing SST's.

[1900hurricane]

It would be nice to get another scatterometer pass as clean as today's earlier ASCAT pass. That could go a long way in helping to determine how strong 02E ends up getting.

[RL3AO]

Id expect the td in best track to get moved to at least 18z. That was a pretty clear ascat pass

[stormwise]

Don't need the wizardry of microwave or ascat here this looks a TS.

[Kingarabian]

02/0600 UTC 14.8N 117.2W T2.0/2.0 02E -- East Pacific

ADT is basically @ 2.0 as well.

May make it to TS storm strength.

[stormwise]

No way is this the presentation of a pre-storm core likely 2.5 or better.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Darvince]

It might be if the centers were aligned, but the convective blowups are very much to the west of the TD/TS. I'd agree that it may be a tropical storm, and personally I'd say either 30 or 35.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

Despite the symmetric area of convection observed on conventional
infrared imagery, several microwave passes indicate that the
low-level center is still located to the southeast or near the edge
of the thunderstorm activity due to southeasterly shear. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed very much, but support
an initial intensity of 30 kt. There is an opportunity for the
depression to slightly strengthen during the next day or so while
the shear decreases. After that time, an environment of higher shear
and cool SSTs should result in weakening, and the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours or sooner.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees
at 9 kt, steered by the flow around a nearly stationary subtropical
ridge. This general motion should continue during the next 24 to 48
hours, and as the cyclone weakens, it should move to the west and
even to the west-southwest steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it very close to
the solution provided by most of the dynamical guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.0N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.4N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.1N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 17.3N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[WeatherGuesser]

This worthless little spitball is going to spoil the record, isn't it?

[1900hurricane]

I would probably upgrade at this point, even though both ASCAT passes earlier couldn't have missed any worse than they did. Both SSD and CIMSS ADT is up to 2.4 (raw 2.9), and microwave imagery indicates that the low level center isn't completely exposed. SSD's subjective dvorak only yielded a 2.0, so we'll see what NHC does.