Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[CaliforniaResident]

Be careful for what you wish for: I think the next 2-3 weeks will be the "calm before the storm" before the Atlantic could easily catch on fire with one powerhouse after another. Not quite the legend of 2005 but both 1998 and 2010 are good analog years for the transition into La Nina.

[dexterlabio]

It seems people are thinking about season cancel because of the activity in the Pacific. Also, some people always compare every year with 2005 to qualify it as an active ATL hurricane season. A cane-free July doesn't mean the whole year will be dead quiet. Atlantic is not my home basin but I've seen really interesting systems forming here in Aug-Oct period, so I don't think looking for an Emily in July is a good idea.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

[Hammy]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

You're lowing your numbers to quieter than last year despite last year being in the middle of said Super Nino?

[Darvince]

That's a very big drop... Besides, it's still only early July. The Atlantic only really pumps out storms during September. We're two months away from that; anything could happen.

[weathaguyry]

Also, the La Niña is coming along about the speed that we had expected, and based on NOAA models, there hasn't been a surge of cold water into the MDR like several forecasters said would happen. It is true that not every condition is perfect for development, especially in July. I think that that the forecasts of a normal to a slightly above average season seem reasonable at this point, but anything could happen

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

You're lowing your numbers to quieter than last year despite last year being in the middle of said Super Nino?

Yes, because of lingering effects.

[hurricanehunter69]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

You're lowing your numbers to quieter than last year despite last year being in the middle of said Super Nino?

Yes, because of lingering effects.

So, the lingering effects are even more inhibitive than the effects of the full blown Nino itself? Anyway, every year the naysayers come out at the exact same time. Whether or not the current season can compete with 2005, is the only thing we can ever take away from July.

[wxman57]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

Only 6/2/1 for the rest of the season? I don't think so. El Nino is gone. Shear is down to normal levels across the Caribbean. Moisture is greater than last year. Things should heat up significantly in early August. Probably 3-4 in August, 5-6 in September, and a few in October.

[SFLcane]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

Only 6/2/1 for the rest of the season? I don't think so. El Nino is gone. Shear is down to normal levels across the Caribbean. Moisture is greater than last year. Things should heat up significantly in early August. Probably 3-4 in August, 5-6 in September, and a few in October.

57 has spoken! Get ready folks..

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

Only 6/2/1 for the rest of the season? I don't think so. El Nino is gone. Shear is down to normal levels across the Caribbean. Moisture is greater than last year. Things should heat up significantly in early August. Probably 3-4 in August, 5-6 in September, and a few in October.

A man can dream can't he? I'd rather a quiet season (living on the coast here in NC) but you would know more than me being a MET. I am just guessing. Probably will be wrong as usual lol. Maybe I should just keep my original numbers and see how wrong I really am.

[SFLcane]

57 can elaborate a bit on how you see the overall steering pattern as we head deeper into July and August. Thx

[Alyono]

6/2/1 seems ridiculous

given the June activity, I would expect something like 8 more storms, still thinking 6 more canes, and 2 intense ones.

The high latitudes and Gulf will still be favorable. Remember, the Caribbean was never supposed to be favorable this year, except for the far NW Caribbean. The storms have developed where they were supposed to, off the East Coast and in the Gulf

[Hammy]

6/2/1 seems ridiculous

given the June activity, I would expect something like 8 more storms, still thinking 6 more canes, and 2 intense ones.

The high latitudes and Gulf will still be favorable. Remember, the Caribbean was never supposed to be favorable this year, except for the far NW Caribbean. The storms have developed where they were supposed to, off the East Coast and in the Gulf

Is a season similar to 1985 regarding the origin points the most likely outcome for this year?

[xcool22]

what about stronger ridging over the gom hmm good questions to ask anyone ???


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[Alyono]

6/2/1 seems ridiculous

given the June activity, I would expect something like 8 more storms, still thinking 6 more canes, and 2 intense ones.

The high latitudes and Gulf will still be favorable. Remember, the Caribbean was never supposed to be favorable this year, except for the far NW Caribbean. The storms have developed where they were supposed to, off the East Coast and in the Gulf

Is a season similar to 1985 regarding the origin points the most likely outcome for this year?

I'd think more forming in the Gulf this year. Id' say the Gulf is the primary genesis region this year with off of the East Coast the secondary region. Basically, the opposite of 1985

[weathaguyry]

Is wind shear in the Caribbean above normal for this time of year?

[weathaguyry]

Never mind, I found the graphic, but anyways, shear is right around normal for this time of year, and is lower than average in the GOM, I would not give up on this season at all, there is no reason to, just because our last storm was more than a week ago

[WPBWeather]

Never mind, I found the graphic, but anyways, shear is right around normal for this time of year, and is lower than average in the GOM, I would not give up on this season at all, there is no reason to, just because our last storm was more than a week ago

No one should give up as no one here knows what will happen. Just a lot of speculation: some educated, some not.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Never mind, I found the graphic, but anyways, shear is right around normal for this time of year, and is lower than average in the GOM, I would not give up on this season at all, there is no reason to, just because our last storm was more than a week ago

No one should give up as no one here knows what will happen. Just a lot of speculation: some educated, some not.

Mine falls under the not educated lol programming sure weather not so much but fun to guess lol