2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS day 16

[cycloneye]

Agatha is the latest first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific
since Ava of 1969.

Now as the outbreak begins let's see how much ACE the basin gets before it quiets down.

[Ntxw]

Agatha is the latest first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific
since Ava of 1969.

Now as the outbreak begins let's see how much ACE the basin gets before it quiets down.

It would be crazy if we saw a season's worth of ACE from the bunch though I doubt it. Anything like the triplets of last year (Ignacio, Jimena, and Kilo) all cat 4 turning at the same time racking up humongous ACE would do it. Patricia overshadowed these three but they were an quite a feat in their own right.

[cycloneye]

Agatha is the latest first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific
since Ava of 1969.

Now as the outbreak begins let's see how much ACE the basin gets before it quiets down.

It would be crazy if we saw a season's worth of ACE from the bunch though I doubt it. Anything like the triplets of last year (Ignacio, Jimena, and Kilo) all cat 4 turning at the same time racking up humongous ACE would do it. Patricia overshadowed these three but they were an quite a feat in their own right.

94E has the best chance to get 10+ ACE units.Let's see how it goes.

[Yellow Evan]

A new area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
week well southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some subsequent
development of the system is possible as it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/749340076081967104

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has the EPAC's sixth storm (fifth hurricane) by July 19th.

[stormwise]

If i was a betting man my cash would be on the low that has not hit the epac as yet is the big one. Earlier EC Hires had a 3rd storm as the monster.

[cycloneye]

A new area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
week well southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system as it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/749592086911922176

[gatorcane]

A new area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
week well southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system as it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Recent long-range GFS runs shows a Hawaii impact in the long-range

[Yellow Evan]

GFS/ECMWF long-range

[cycloneye]

There are six developments at 12z GFS run.It would be an epic outbreak if it comes to fructition.

[gatorcane]

yep saw that the GFS is cranking out storm after storm in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
week well southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system as it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS long range

[cycloneye]

Up to 40% at 5 PM PDT TWO.

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the
week well southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Alyono]

now we're starting to see what was expected given the very warm waters just north of the equator. Just needed to get that monsoon trough to shift from the Caribbean to the EPAC

[gatorcane]

now we're starting to see what was expected given the very warm waters just north of the equator. Just needed to get that monsoon trough to shift from the Caribbean to the EPAC

Yep indeed as you were mentioning several times before this season started. I also remember you mentioning to watch Hawaii landfall as a potential U.S. threat. Well it's long-range but GFS is showing a hit again from the system NHC has behind Blas:

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has Celia, Darby, Estelle, and Frank