EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS day five

[stormwise]

Not sure about those pressures on those tidbit plots .


https://i.imgsafe.org/75945ce7dc.png
unsure atm which storm this actually is.

[Kingarabian]

LLC still a bit broad but it's almost there. This thing could jump straight to TS status at this rate.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two-E located a little more than 700 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is gradually becoming
better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical depression to form during the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Avila

[stormwise]

I know the NHC is the easiest agency to qualify a TS given they only need verification of 35kts in one quadrant unlike other basins. I don't see any cdo with this monsoon vort.

[Darvince]

It's still early in its development, so it could pull a Lowell 2014 and be gigantic.

[cycloneye]

Almost there.

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues
to become better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable
for a tropical depression to form later today or on Sunday while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[weathaguyry]

Models at 06z are all over the place, ranging from a mid- cat.3 hurricane, to a weak TS

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track: Shear will be favorable for it to do RI.

Location: 10.8°N 105.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 07/02/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 43 57 70 83 96 105 110 110 103
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 43 57 70 83 96 105 110 110 103
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 34 43 53 66 81 93 101 99 87
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 8 8 10 9 10 4 7 7 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -3 0 1 -3 0 3 -1
SHEAR DIR 113 54 71 88 95 69 71 42 97 84 104 73 63
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.1 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 164 163 157 151 154 153 149 145 134 123
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -50.9 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 76 73 68 70 72 71 70 64 64 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 18 20 24 29 34 39 41 40
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -12 -9 -9 -18 -9 4 12 32 42 63 72
200 MB DIV 78 71 89 70 46 38 39 76 94 81 37 95 31
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 858 858 861 871 905 1047 1229 1329 1400 1473 1572 1676 1730
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.9 12.7 12.6 13.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.4 107.2 108.2 109.4 112.1 114.5 116.4 118.2 120.3 122.6 124.5 126.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 13 13 11 8 9 12 11 8 12
HEAT CONTENT 41 43 41 32 31 29 22 33 47 32 15 25 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 26. 32. 36. 36. 31.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 18. 32. 45. 58. 71. 80. 85. 85. 78.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 105.7

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 5.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 -0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.1% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.5% 29.0% 28.3% 8.0% 4.1% 28.8% 14.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 11.3% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.4%
Consensus: 1.6% 23.8% 18.4% 3.0% 1.5% 9.9% 5.5%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[bg1]

...
0z GFS day five

Is that 929 storm Two-E or 94E?! The NHC expects Two-E to be only a depression then, and it seems too far west to be 94E...

[Hurricaneman]

...
0z GFS day five

Is that 929 storm Two-E or 94E?! The NHC expects Two-E to be only a depression then, and it seems too far west to be 94E...

This one

[Yellow Evan]

...
0z GFS day five

Is that 929 storm Two-E or 94E?! The NHC expects Two-E to be only a depression then, and it seems too far west to be 94E...

94E, as its expected to start moving quickly over the next several days.

[Yellow Evan]

02/1130 UTC 10.9N 106.4W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues
to become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Almost all the convection is located on the southern semicricle where there appears to be a fragmented rainband.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP942016  07/02/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    32    37    43    53    68    82    96   103   108   109   104
V (KT) LAND       25    27    32    37    43    53    68    82    96   103   108   109   104
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    28    30    33    41    51    63    77    90    97    97    89
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     8     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     8     8     7     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -6    -7    -6    -2     0    -2     1     0    -3    -2     0     2
SHEAR DIR         79    74    78   100    95    60    55    47    80    81   107    71    62
SST (C)         29.9  29.8  29.8  29.8  29.7  29.2  28.6  28.9  28.7  28.4  27.7  26.8  26.0
POT. INT. (KT)   163   162   163   163   162   157   151   154   152   149   141   131   123
200 MB T (C)   -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.2  -0.2  -0.3  -0.3  -0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.5   0.5   0.6
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     8     8     7     8     7     6     6     5     5
700-500 MB RH     79    76    76    75    71    71    74    73    71    70    68    65    69
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    12    13    14    16    17    20    24    30    34    39    41    42
850 MB ENV VOR   -10    -9    -6    -7    -7    -7    -2     9    14    31    45    71    79
200 MB DIV        89    98    81    48    34    26    70    91   102    82    48    70    71
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     2     5     0     0    -4    -6    -6    -6    -2    -2
LAND (KM)        894   909   929   950   969  1071  1210  1283  1404  1507  1592  1678  1784
LAT (DEG N)     10.7 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     7     8     9     9    10    11    12    11    11    11    10     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      42    42    38    34    34    31    21    29    48    23    19    20     5

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/  6      CX,CY:  -5/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  637  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  20.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           13.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   0.   6.  13.  21.  26.  29.  31.  32.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.   6.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.  10.  12.  13.  14.  14.  13.  13.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   4.   7.  12.  17.  25.  31.  35.  36.  33.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  12.  18.  28.  43.  57.  71.  79.  83.  84.  79.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   10.7   106.3

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST     07/02/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36           2.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   137.6      40.3  to  144.5       0.93           5.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    38.0       0.0  to   75.9       0.50           3.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    20.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.49           3.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     8.0      18.9  to    1.4       0.62           3.8
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    70.0     -11.0  to  135.3       0.55           1.8
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    45.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.84           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     1.3       2.1  to   -1.7       0.22          -0.3
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  30% is   2.3 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   29.7%   21.7%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     2.8%   24.4%   16.5%    4.8%    2.3%   17.4%    9.2%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    9.3%    4.1%    0.6%    0.1%    0.6%    0.9%
   Consensus:     1.0%   21.1%   14.1%    1.8%    0.8%    6.0%    3.4%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST     07/02/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF down to 955MB at its peak:

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF day 10 doesn't recurve the system and instead slowly deepens it as it moves west.

[gatorcane]

Interesting ECMWF run Yellow Evan, maybe Hawaii could be in play afterall with one of these systems?

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting ECMWF run Yellow Evan, maybe Hawaii could be in play afterall with one of these systems?

There appears to be a ridge over the Hawaiian islands so I doubt it.