WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

The Himawari-8 floater window with high spatial and temporal resolution is now pointed at 99W.

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/sat_tgb.php

[dexterlabio]

The area of convection associated with 99W is huge... but the actual core of whatever circulation that is trying to form seems so small...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS now in good agreement with the ECMWF by day 5 with a recurve east of China:

[1900hurricane]

SSD up to 1.5

Code: Select all

TXPQ28 KNES 021519
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B.  02/1430Z

C.  8.2N

D.  145.0E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS NEARLY .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5.  MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER

JTWC remains at 1.0 however.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 021501

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 02/1500Z

C. 8.40N

D. 145.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

[1900hurricane]

Like previous passes, this newest microwave pass shows increased surface organization. I'd say with pretty good confidence we're within 24 hours of classification now.

[gatorcane]

Wow looks like 905MB

[Yellow Evan]

Appears to be a bit elongated, although almost classifiable IMO.

[euro6208]

12Z GFS now in good agreement with the ECMWF by day 5 with a recurve east of China:

Actually EURO brings this inland as per latest run. Devours Yaeyama and Miyako, clips Northern Taiwan, then into China.

[gatorcane]

Yep was talking about the 00Z Euro so now back to not having tight consensus between GFS and ECMWF (12Z run)

[euro6208]

Up to 1.5 from PGTW.

TPPN10 PGTW 022107

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (INVEST)

B. 02/2040Z

C. 8.69N

D. 145.32E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1523Z 8.65N 144.87E AMS2


MARTINEZ

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 022111
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 8.4N

D. 145.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN .3 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET=1.0
AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[1900hurricane]

If I were calling the shots, I'd say it's time to classify at 00Z.

[gatorcane]

Down to 929mb on 18Z

[1900hurricane]

I really haven't said anything regarding future intensity, but I do think 99W can become quite strong. With warm waters to traverse and good upper air support (Equatorial outflow channel and the TUTT to dump outflow in to the north/future poleward outflow channel, which I alluded to earlier back at the top of the previous page), I'd say odds favor 99W to at least become a major typhoon.

[Alyono]

I'd say this is a 2.5 right now

[ManilaTC]

SSD up to 1.5

Code: Select all

TXPQ28 KNES 021519
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B.  02/1430Z

C.  8.2N

D.  145.0E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS NEARLY .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5.  MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER

JTWC remains at 1.0 however.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 021501

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 02/1500Z

C. 8.40N

D. 145.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

Hi guys, is there a link to get satellite fix bulletins? I used to get them through a mail list.
Aside from NOAA SSD's tropical bulletins page, that is.

[1900hurricane]

SSD up to 1.5

Code: Select all

TXPQ28 KNES 021519
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B.  02/1430Z

C.  8.2N

D.  145.0E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS NEARLY .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5.  MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER

JTWC remains at 1.0 however.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 021501

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 02/1500Z

C. 8.40N

D. 145.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

Hi guys, is there a link to get satellite fix bulletins? I used to get them through a mail list.
Aside from NOAA SSD's tropical bulletins page, that is.

SSD's can be found here and JTWC's can be found in their front page. Not sure where to find JMA's or if it is publicly available.

[1900hurricane]

I'd say this is a 2.5 right now

I bet JMA is about to upgrade to a TS in a few minutes while JTWC is still getting a 1.5 and not classifying. Ugh.

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 160703 0000 8.7N 145.2E WPAC 25 1004

00Z. Winds up and pressure down but still no upgrade.

[1900hurricane]

Named!

TS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 3 July 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°55' (8.9°)
E145°05' (145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°30' (11.5°)
E142°00' (142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E136°55' (136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55' (18.9°)
E130°40' (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)