Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[ninel conde]

Im going to have to disagree about the GOM being favorable this season.



No change in the years long low locked and loaded over SE Canada. Its been quite awhile since anything of interest was able to survive north of 23n in the GOM. I see no change in the multi-year pattern.

[xcool22]

what about stronger ridging over the gom hmm good questions to ask anyone ???


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[ninel conde]

what about stronger ridging over the gom hmm good questions to ask anyone ???


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

The stronger ridging is certainly a hindrance. A locked low over se canada does many things. it protects the entire coast from impacts of interest, it results in higher pressures over the tropics, and it means anything that might form in the gom will be a slop gyre or stay south of 20n. Will be interesting to see in the next 5-10 years if a high ever domintes the NW atlantic.

[SouthDadeFish]

We had the earliest forming fourth named storm in the satellite-era and people want to give up on the season??????? I am quite confused.

I think people need to pay more attention to the various kinds of tropical waves that affect TC activity. Here is a time series showing 200 mb velocity potential, which is basically a measure of large scale rising (green colors) or sinking (brown colors) motion.



For example, in the Eastern Pacific, both Agatha and Blas formed under the favorable superposition of the MJO and a passing Kelvin wave. For the past month or so, the Atlantic has been under large scale sinking motion, which is unfavorable for TC development. Nonetheless, Danielle still formed during this period, coincident with a passing Kelvin wave. Although they are not the only influence on TC development, these various tropical waves play an important role. Since it now appears the Atlantic will be entering a time period of enhanced rising motion seemingly associated with the MJO, I would not be surprised to see another TC or two form in the basin during the month of July, perhaps when another strong Kelvin wave passes across a vigorous African easterly wave. Just something to keep an eye on going forward.

Note: This map was created through Dr. Carl Schreck's webpage. Similar maps can be found here: http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/v2/

[xcool22]

what about stronger ridging over the gom hmm good questions to ask anyone ???


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

The stronger ridging is certainly a hindrance. A locked low over se canada does many things. it protects the entire coast from impacts of interest, it results in higher pressures over the tropics, and it means anything that might form in the gom will be a slop gyre or stay south of 20n. Will be interesting to see in the next 5-10 years if a high ever domintes the NW atlantic.

I agree with you

[SFLcane]

Im going to have to disagree about the GOM being favorable this season.



No change in the years long low locked and loaded over SE Canada. Its been quite awhile since anything of interest was able to survive north of 23n in the GOM. I see no change in the multi-year pattern.

We get it season is over bring on 2017. I think I'll take 57's heads up on busy times ahead. Thx

[WPBWeather]

Im going to have to disagree about the GOM being favorable this season.



No change in the years long low locked and loaded over SE Canada. Its been quite awhile since anything of interest was able to survive north of 23n in the GOM. I see no change in the multi-year pattern.

Ninel, my friend, you can cherry pick data with the best of them. I'll give you that. Happy 4th!

[Hurricaneman]

All you need is a week or 2 break in the pattern to cause giant problems which is why I subscribe to always being watchful on using comments like season cancel or nothing will come near the US so in closing I'm going to take a WXMAN57's advice

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[NDG]

Well I for one am not cancelling the season just lowering my numbers from 17/9/4 to 10/3/1 mainly due to lingering effects of Super El Nino.

You're lowing your numbers to quieter than last year despite last year being in the middle of said Super Nino?

Lol, good point Hammy, last year we had record breaking windshear with two major hurricanes forming. I don't see his new forecast coming to fruition.

[ninel conde]

We had the earliest forming fourth named storm in the satellite-era and people want to give up on the season??????? I am quite confused.

I think people need to pay more attention to the various kinds of tropical waves that affect TC activity. Here is a time series showing 200 mb velocity potential, which is basically a measure of large scale rising (green colors) or sinking (brown colors) motion.



For example, in the Eastern Pacific, both Agatha and Blas formed under the favorable superposition of the MJO and a passing Kelvin wave. For the past month or so, the Atlantic has been under large scale sinking motion, which is unfavorable for TC development. Nonetheless, Danielle still formed during this period, coincident with a passing Kelvin wave. Although they are not the only influence on TC development, these various tropical waves play an important role. Since it now appears the Atlantic will be entering a time period of enhanced rising motion seemingly associated with the MJO, I would not be surprised to see another TC or two form in the basin during the month of July, perhaps when another strong Kelvin wave passes across a vigorous African easterly wave. Just something to keep an eye on going forward.

Note: This map was created through Dr. Carl Schreck's webpage. Similar maps can be found here: http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/v2/

I see the very weak sloppy early storms as a sign of a dead season, not an active one, like 1997. As far as later in July nothing of interest will form unless or until that permanent low over se canada is gone for good(not a day or 2) and the high pressures over the entire tropical atlantic relax. It doesnt seem to matter anymore what the sst's over the pacific are.

[Hammy]

We had the earliest forming fourth named storm in the satellite-era and people want to give up on the season??????? I am quite confused.

I think people need to pay more attention to the various kinds of tropical waves that affect TC activity. Here is a time series showing 200 mb velocity potential, which is basically a measure of large scale rising (green colors) or sinking (brown colors) motion.



For example, in the Eastern Pacific, both Agatha and Blas formed under the favorable superposition of the MJO and a passing Kelvin wave. For the past month or so, the Atlantic has been under large scale sinking motion, which is unfavorable for TC development. Nonetheless, Danielle still formed during this period, coincident with a passing Kelvin wave. Although they are not the only influence on TC development, these various tropical waves play an important role. Since it now appears the Atlantic will be entering a time period of enhanced rising motion seemingly associated with the MJO, I would not be surprised to see another TC or two form in the basin during the month of July, perhaps when another strong Kelvin wave passes across a vigorous African easterly wave. Just something to keep an eye on going forward.

Note: This map was created through Dr. Carl Schreck's webpage. Similar maps can be found here: http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/v2/

I see the very weak sloppy early storms as a sign of a dead season, not an active one, like 1997. As far as later in July nothing of interest will form unless or until that permanent low over se canada is gone for good(not a day or 2) and the high pressures over the entire tropical atlantic relax. It doesnt seem to matter anymore what the sst's over the pacific are.

You'd absolutely lose your mind if we had another 1998/2004 repeat with not so much as a depression until late July. "Sloppy" storms in June are typical, but we've had three instead of one. Troughing is normal in June/July. And we've had several more active years with less storms so none of this is any indication of a less active season.

These posts are so absurd to the point of getting to be clutter, don't add anything, and literally ignore all factual/statistical history to the point of bordering on trolling and as such are not worth my time to respond to after this.

[ninel conde]

We had the earliest forming fourth named storm in the satellite-era and people want to give up on the season??????? I am quite confused.

I think people need to pay more attention to the various kinds of tropical waves that affect TC activity. Here is a time series showing 200 mb velocity potential, which is basically a measure of large scale rising (green colors) or sinking (brown colors) motion.



For example, in the Eastern Pacific, both Agatha and Blas formed under the favorable superposition of the MJO and a passing Kelvin wave. For the past month or so, the Atlantic has been under large scale sinking motion, which is unfavorable for TC development. Nonetheless, Danielle still formed during this period, coincident with a passing Kelvin wave. Although they are not the only influence on TC development, these various tropical waves play an important role. Since it now appears the Atlantic will be entering a time period of enhanced rising motion seemingly associated with the MJO, I would not be surprised to see another TC or two form in the basin during the month of July, perhaps when another strong Kelvin wave passes across a vigorous African easterly wave. Just something to keep an eye on going forward.

Note: This map was created through Dr. Carl Schreck's webpage. Similar maps can be found here: http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/v2/

I see the very weak sloppy early storms as a sign of a dead season, not an active one, like 1997. As far as later in July nothing of interest will form unless or until that permanent low over se canada is gone for good(not a day or 2) and the high pressures over the entire tropical atlantic relax. It doesnt seem to matter anymore what the sst's over the pacific are.

You'd absolutely lose your mind if we had another 1998/2004 repeat with not so much as a depression until late July. "Sloppy" storms in June are typical, but we've had three instead of one. Troughing is normal in June/July. And we've had several more active years with less storms so none of this is any indication of a less active season.

These posts are so absurd to the point of getting to be clutter, don't add anything, and literally ignore all factual/statistical history to the point of bordering on trolling and as such are not worth my time to respond to after this.

Simply cant agree. If we had just one sloppy storm so far i might agree with you. I would much rather see a season start in late July, than start with 3 sloppy storms in june. You do a really good job of making my point for me however. Over the last several years how many well developed hurricanes existed in the GOM north of 23n as they did in 2004 and 1998?

[Alyono]

I will say this, ninel's posts sure are entertaining

The Gulf produced 2 storms this year. All signs are more are on the way in August and September. Yet because of ridging in JULY, that means no more Gulf storms?

That's as silly as saying Rosberg did not try and take out Hamilton today

[ninel conde]

I will say this, ninel's posts sure are entertaining

The Gulf produced 2 storms this year. All signs are more are on the way in August and September. Yet because of ridging in JULY, that means no more Gulf storms?

That's as silly as saying Rosberg did not try and take out Hamilton today

I never said no more GOM storms, but well developed hurricanes hitting the US, very likely.



Last nights euro is quite instructive. very high pressures over the tropical atlantic, that stubborn low over se canada hasnt budged and we can see 3 well developed hurricanes in the east pac. the hyper active east pac will flood the atlatic with shear. this pattern has been persistent for years now which is the reason there have been few if any well developed canes in the gom north of 23n. For something of interest to develop in july the very high pressures will have to relax, that low will have to be replaced with high pressure, and the east pac will have to die down.

[ninel conde]

Starting in 2010 the 6 years from 2010 to 2015 produced 1 very minimal cane that was able to survive in the gom north of 23n. This seasons pattern is far more like those 6 years than 1998 and 2004.

[Ntxw]

I bet Hawaii would be conscious looking at that map.

Lets try to be civil in here and respect each other's opinions. It is fine to disagree, infact encouraged to question ideas as long as it is backed up by sound information. Opinions are also welcome, but lets keep the discussion progressive. So far ACE for the Atlantic is 600% above normal. Average ACE will climb late month and into August so lets wait and see...I know its tough when things are slow in the Atlantic at the moment, but hey there is stuff going on over in the Epac for enthusiasts to track.

[tarheelprogrammer]

As long as the EPAC continues to crank up storms then the Atlantic will struggle to get going thanks to shear. Hopefully the EPAC continues churning and it kills the Atlantic. The environment outside of SSTs looks exactly the same as the last few years to me. Shear looks to start going up in the long range on the GFS in the Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

As long as the EPAC continues to crank up storms then the Atlantic will struggle to get going thanks to shear. Hopefully the EPAC continues churning and it kills the Atlantic.

Not sure that'll keep happening once MJO/CCKW leaves the EPAC though.

[tarheelprogrammer]

As long as the EPAC continues to crank up storms then the Atlantic will struggle to get going thanks to shear. Hopefully the EPAC continues churning and it kills the Atlantic.

Not sure that'll keep happening once MJO/CCKW leaves the EPAC though.

We shall see but right now I see nothing different except SSTs. Shear is a little lower but still harsh.

[Hurricaneman]

The time I would watch is the last week of this month ore the first week of August, The GFS in super long range is trying to develop lows on the ITCZ and based on that and if the EURO shows something even weak in that range in next weeks runs then we may have our true start to the meat of the season but for now its just wait and see.

ps: both the GFS and Euro are showing a favorable MJO for the atlantic around 10 days so that is why my guess around that timeframe

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service