Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

U

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT will hold across the central Atlantic and
into the local area through early next week. At lower levels,
a high pressure across the north central Atlantic will continue
to promote an easterly wind flow during the next few days. Hazy
skies are expected as SAL continues to spread across the eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies were observed during the overnight
and early morning hours across the forecast area with a few isolated
showers detected across the coastal waters. Temperatures across
coastal areas were in the low 80s and the wind was easterly at 10
mph or less.

Although TUTT will hold across the central Atlantic and into the
eastern Caribbean through early next week, precipitable water will
remain near normal values with a trade wind cap holding across the
area. In addition, SAL will continue to spread across the eastern
Caribbean during the weekend. This pattern will result in mostly
seasonable weather conditions during the weekend and early next
week with locally induced showers and thunderstorms across west
Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours each day.

By mid week next week, fair weather still expected as weak ridge
aloft prevails across the forecast area. Best moisture advection
is expected on Friday as a tropical wave with plenty of moisture
moves across the eastern Caribbean and another TUTT develops north
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over most terminals through
25/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west-interior
Puerto Rico between 24/17Z and 24/22Z so VCTS is expected for TJBQ
and TJMZ. However, these is also a chance of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as persistent as those over W-PR.
Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with occasional
gusts with local sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas between 3 and 5 feet across most of local waters
except across the Caribbean offshore waters where mariners will
find seas up to 6 feet. Winds 15 to 20 knots are expected today.
Small craft should exercise caution across the offshore Caribbean
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20
STT 90 80 90 78 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
152 PM AST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
north central Atlantic for the next several days promoting
moderate trades. SAL and mid to upper level ridge across the
eastern Caribbean will continue to move west across the forecast
area. TUTT expected to move to the northeast of the area as an
upper level short wave takes it place just north of the area and
upper ridge builds over the eastern Caribbean basin. Tropical wave
across the offshore Caribbean sea will exit the area later
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed early
in the afternoon across the western interior and southwest
sections of Puerto Rico. The doppler radar estimated around 1 inch
of rain with this activity across areas in Cabo Rojo and Maricao.
Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the heaviest
showers across the SW quadrant of the island. Streamers formed off
the islands and across eastern PR...with showers noted over and
west of Guaynabo. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday as
mid level ridge and upper tutt continues over the forecast area.

Suspended Saharan dust trailing the tropical wave will continue
through at least Sunday. Therefore, light trade wind showers will
continue across the local waters with a few reaching parts of the
islands during the night and early morning hours. Wind direction
and local effects will favor afternoon convection across the
western sections of PR.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected over most terminals
through 26/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over south
west-interior Puerto Rico between 25/17Z and 25/22Z so VCTS is
expected for TJMZ. Sfc winds should prevail from the E-ne at
10-15KT with occasional gusts with local sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Dominant short period wind waves will continue across
the waters through the forecast period. Seas will generally be
between 2-5 feet and up to 6 across the Mona Passage.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 90 78 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
534 AM AST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT across the central Atlantic and into the eastern
Caribbean will shift east through the day, while weakening. Another
TUTT will then develop across the western Atlantic and into the
northern Caribbean isles by Tuesday. Weak mid level ridge will
hold much of the next workweek. A surface high across the north
central Atlantic will continue to prevail during the next several
days. The next tropical wave passage is expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies were observed during the overnight
and early morning hours with a few isolated showers detected
across the north and east coastal areas of Puerto Rico as well as
the USVI. Coastal temperatures were in the low 80s and the wind
was easterly at 10 mph or less.

As TUTT shifts to our east while weakening, its convergent side
will begin to dominate the area. However, this pattern is short-
lived as another TUTT develops across the western Atlantic and
into the northern Caribbean islands with favorable upper level
dynamics expected across the area Tuesday and early Wednesday.
Precipitable water will continue near normal values through Monday
with a sharp increase Tuesday/early Wednesday. Therefore, under
this evolving pattern continue to expect afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across west Puerto Rico today and Monday. Intensity
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms, including across the
USVI, should increase Tuesday and early Wednesday as moisture
increases and trofiness dominates the forecast area. Late
Wednesday through early Friday, a fair weather pattern is expected
to prevail under limited low level moisture. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase once again Friday
afternoon with the passage of the next tropical wave.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over most terminals through
26/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west and
interior Puerto Rico between 26/17Z and 26/22Z so at least VCTS is
expected for TJBQ, TJMZ, and TJPS. However, these is also a chance
of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as
persistent. Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 91 80 91 79 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
202 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
north central Atlantic for the next several days. Weak mid level
ridge across will continue to move west across the forecast area.
TUTT will move to the northeast of the area as an upper level
short wave takes it place just north of the area. Moderate trade
winds will continue through the forecast period. The next
tropical wave passage is expected on Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed late in
the morning hours across the northern U.S. Virgin Islands...then
by early in the afternoon hours across San Juan and vicinity and the
interior and southern sections of Puerto Rico. The doppler radar
estimated between 1-2 inches of rain across areas in Juana Diaz
and Ponce. Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the
heaviest showers through at least this afternoon.

TUTT will continue to shift to our northeast while weakening and
leaving the area on its convergent side during the next 12-24 hours.
Another TUTT will develop across the western Atlantic and extend a
short wave trof into the northern Caribbean islands with favorable
upper level dynamics expected across the area once again from
Tuesday thru Wednesday evening. Therefore, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the interior and western Puerto
Rico on Monday. Increasing on intensity and coverage from Tuesday
and Wednesday as moisture increases and divergent pattern settles
aloft. Fair weather pattern is expected to prevail under limited
low level moisture by the end of the week. As wind direction and
local effects will favor afternoon convection across the interior
and western sections of PR. The next tropical wave passage is
expected by Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to continue across west
and interior PR thru 22Z...so at least VCTS is expected for TJBQ,
TJMZ, and TJPS. However, there is also a chance of SHRA and ISOLD
TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as persistent. Sfc winds
should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea
breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.
However...higher gusts due to thunderstorms and showers can be
expected each afternoon over the coastal waters of western PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 91 / 20 20 20 30
STT 80 91 79 91 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper low to the northeast of the local islands will
continue to move to the North and East as it weakens. Near normal
moisture is expected to remain over the local islands causing
locally induced showers and thunderstorms across portions of
Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters. These brief showers are expected to continue through the
morning hours. Even though the upper low is expected to move away
as it weakens, the remaining moisture will combine with the local
effects and diurnal heating to cause the development of showers
and thunderstorms across the central, western, and northwestern
portions of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to observe showers
and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan metro area and
portions of eastern PR but these areas are not expected to
receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that are expected
in the central, western and northwestern portions of PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday
into Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday
as a tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with drier air moving in by Sunday morning. According to
long range models, another tropical wave may approach the local
area early next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is also a low risk of rip currents across the
local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 20 30 30 0
STT 89 79 88 79 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Several showers were spotted across the
metropolitan area of San Juan during the late morning hours.
Streamers formed off the islands but remained across the local
waters. Showers also developed early afternoon across the western
interior and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Further
development of locally induced convection along these areas can be
expected during the rest of the afternoon hours.

A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the region
tonight and tomorrow. Therefore, light trade wind showers across
the local waters with a few moving inland across parts of the
islands from time to time can be expected during the night and
morning hours.

Surface high pressure will continue across the north central
Atlantic, maintaining an east to southeast wind flow over the
region. The upper level low located northeast of the local
islands will continue to dissipate as it moves towards the north
northeast. Saharan dust will prevail across the region but will
gradually diminish during the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
28/18z. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across west Puerto
Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds possible in and
around JBQ/JMZ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts
and local sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue
across the local waters tonight and tomorrow, with seas of 5 feet
or less and winds at 10 to 15 knots. Some passing showers may
produce brief periods of choppy seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 30 30 0 20
STT 79 88 79 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
435 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper trough to the northwest of Hispaniola will
continue to dig and develop a low which is expected to be cutoff
and over Hispaniola by Thursday. Increase in moisture is expected
to today over the local islands causing locally induced showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters, but some briefly reaching the USVI and eastern PR. These
brief showers are expected to continue through the morning hours.
Even though the upper low that has affected us the past few days
has now weakened and moved away, the increasing moisture will
combine with the local effects and diurnal heating to cause the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
northwestern quadrant of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to
observe showers and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan
metro area and portions of eastern PR but these areas are not
expected to receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that
are expected in the central into northwestern PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday into
Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday as a
tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with slightly drier air moving in by Sunday morning.
According to long range models, another tropical wave may approach
the local area early next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT
with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of northern Puerto Rico and the beaches of North and East
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 89 80 89 79 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
211 PM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong surface high pressure across the Central
Atlantic will continue to dominates the local area through at
least Friday. A tropical wave will move across the area Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Passing showers were seen across the eastern half
of Puerto Rico this morning. Later in the afternoon...the streamer
from el Yunque developed...producing scattered showers across the
San Juan metropolitan area. Another area of showers developed
across the western interior and northwest section of Puerto Rico.
Some streamers developed also offshore Saint Croix.

Local area will continue to be dominated by a strong High
Pressure system through at least Friday. After Friday...a Tropical
Wave will affect the local Friday afternoon into Saturday. As a
result...an increase in showers and thunderstorms are expected.
After the passage of this wave...Saharan Air Layer will move
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
29/18z. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across west Puerto
Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with a few causing MVFR conds in
and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA in
the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT with occasional
gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...seas 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
over the coastal waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 88 / 20 20 10 20
STT 80 89 79 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
151 PM AST WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT to our west will have little effects on the local
weather. A mid level ridge and its associated subsidence inversion
will continue to enter the forecast area during the day...and
will lead mostly fair conditions through Thursday. A Tropical Wave
will move across the area late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level high clouds prevailed across the local
area today. Some showers were observed across the north central
and northwest sections of Puerto Rico early this afternoon.
However...these showers were moving quickly. As a result...no
significant rainfall accumulations were observed over land areas.
The cloud cover limited the shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. In addition...latest satelite images are
showing a dry airmass approaching the local region from the east.
Only isolated showers are possible late tonight into Thursday as
this area of dry air moves across the region.

Precipitable water values will drop to near 1.3 inches by
Thursday...which will limit the shower development across the
region. This dry weather will be follow by a Tropical Wave...which
was located east of the Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. This
wave will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity as
it moves across the region through at least Saturday. After the
passage of this wave..a return to drier conditions are
expected...with some Saharan Air Layer affecting the local region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA still possible across west
Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours...with MVFR conds in and
around JBQ/JMZ through 29/22z. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations...becoming light and
variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
across the coastal waters. Small Craft should exerciee caution
across most coastal waters due to winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 20 20 30
STT 79 90 79 89 / 20 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
523 AM AST THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical waves will move throught the area on Saturday
and Monday night through Tuesday to increase the chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Heavier dust will be behind each wave.
Otherwise there will be limited convection and precipitation
across the local area.

At upper levels...An upper level cut-off low north of Hispaniola
will move across Cuba on Saturday night. A second low will form
northeast of the Leeward Islands on Saturday night and move slowly
westward. It is expected to be north of Puerto Rico by next
Thursday.

At mid levels...High pressure will develop north of the forecast
area and continue through Monday. A tropical wave will be evident
in its transit of the area on Tuesday. It will form a weak low
north of Hispaniola late next week.

At lower levels...Moderate high pressure in the north central
Atlantic will drift east over the Azore Islands saturday night. A
ridge of high pressure will continue to cross the Atlantic to the
northern Bahama Islands through the end of next week. This will
keep moderate to fresh east to east southeast trade winds across
the forecast area through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few tiny showers formed lines as they moved across
the Caribbean toward the west. Very few showers moved over Puerto
Rico. A few showers were seen crossing Saint John and Saint
Thomas. The tropical wave that crossed mainly south of the area
Wednesday night and Thursday is now south of the Dominican
Republic. Drier air was seen on the MIMIC product entering the
area from the east, but moisture will gradually increase through
Saturday bringing an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
ahead of another tropical wave that will cross Puerto Rico
Saturday evening. Conditions are expected to dry until the next
wave moves through Monday night and Tuesday. This is expected to
be the wettest wave of the next 10 days. Even so, moisture at mid
levels is brief and limited.

Showers are expected each afternoon in western Puerto Rico, but
during the drier breaks other areas of the island will have few
showers. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the heavier
showers, but most will not be able to penetrate the drier mid
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites
during the forecast period. Fair weather is expected through 16Z
with only brief ISOLD -SHRA over the local area. SHRA and ISOLD
TSRA are possible across NW PR after 16Z, causing VCSH/VCTS at
TJMZ and TJBQ. VCSH is also possible at TJSJ between 16Z-22Z. Low
level winds from the E- ESE at 10-20 kts with sea breeze
variations after 13z.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will increase around and behind the
tropical waves expected Saturday night and Tuesday. There is a
good chance that small craft advisories will be need for seas of 7
to 8 feet in the northern part of our local Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 89 80 / 10 20 30 40
STT 90 80 89 79 / 20 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level cut off low will continue to the northwest of the
region, over the Hispanola, then it is forecast to move across
the Windward Passage and into the Caribbean Region. A mid level
high pressure is forecast to build north of the region and
continue through Monday. A tropical wave will move trough the area
on Saturday. A second tropical wave is forecast to move across the
region Monday night or Tuesday. At low levels, a strong surface
high pressure will continue over the Atlantic Ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mid to upper level clouds moves across the region during the day.
Also, the Doppler Radar detected a few trade wind showers across
the local waters during the morning hours, followed by afternoon
convection downwind from the islands of St Croix, St John and
Sierra de Luquillo. In additions, afternoon convection was
observed across the interior and western sections of PR. These
activity was due to the interaction between the available
moisture, the local effects and the instability associated with
the TUTT low. Showers and thunderstorms may continue through the
evening hours. For tonight just a few passing showers are expected
mainly over the waters and the windward sections of PR and the
USVI.

A strong surface high pressure will continue over the Atlantic
Ocean through the forecast period. As a result, expect a moderate
to fresh east to east southeast trade winds across the forecast
area. A tropical wave will move trough the area on Saturday to
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms. High Saharan
Dust Particles are expected behind the wave. Followed by another
tropical wave by Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast period. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA possible across NW PR
after 18Z, causing VCSH/VCTS at TJMZ and TJBQ. VCSH possible
elsewhere. Low level winds from the E-ESE at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas up to 5 feet and winds at 10 to 20 knots,
decreasing at 10 to 15 around evening and into the overnight
hours. Small craft operators should exercise caution across the
coastal waters of Northern PR, Mona Passage and the Caribbean
Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 80 89 / 20 30 40 40
STT 80 89 79 89 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
603 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave will move through the area today
through Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. Somewhat drier
weather is expected Sunday and Monday, but there is still
sufficient moisture and instability for showers and isolated
thunderstorms in western Puerto Rico. Tropical waves this weekend
and Tuesday will keep winds stronger. Some saharan dust is
expected but it will increase during the week next week.

At upper levels...A cut-off low just north of Hispaniola will move
across Cuba during the weekend and the early part of next week.
Another low will cut off northeast of the Leeward islands early on
Sunday and wander north of the Anegada passage before returning to
its original position late next week. Upper level flow will
generally be weak.

At mid levels...High pressure will continue across the sub-
tropics through early next week. A trough will dig toward the
Leeward islands from the north northwest the remainder of the
week. Another tropical wave near 50 west Saturday night will move
across the local area Monday night and Tuesday.

At lower levels...High pressure over the northeast Atlantic will
move over the Azores over the weekend causing a ridge that
stretches to the northern Bahama islands to become more
pronounced. The ridge and the the moderate to fresh trade winds
will weaken during the week when weak low pressure gains control
of the western Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The first band of a tropical wave moved into the
Caribbean south of Saint Croix overnight with clusters of
thunderstorms that remained close to the southern border of our
forecast area as they moved west. Tops occasionally reached 50
kft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
western and interior Puerto Rico during the day and will have
some assistance from the upper level low about 400 miles to the
northwest. The back of the wave will cross through late Saturday
with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will
prevail Sunday and Monday, but strong heating will promote showers
and thunderstorms over western and interior Puerto Rico during the
afternoons. A second wave is due to pass through Monday night and
Tuesday with similar moisture. Low pressure forming in the
Atlantic north of the area late next week will also bring
additional moisture to the area on Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...The tropical wave moving west across the Caribbean
Sea will increase clouds and SHRA over the local flying area. This
will result in SCT/BKN Cigs around FL025-100 thru the morning
hours...spreading across the interior and western sections of PR
during the afternoon...impacting mainly TJBQ/TJMZ. East winds at
10- 15kt with higher gusts near SHRA and sea breeze variation
after 13Z.


&&

.MARINE...Winds in the tropical wave will keep seas agitated and
rough. Conditions will approach small craft advisory conditions
on Sunday and spread over the outer waters of the area Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 90 79 / 50 40 50 30
STT 89 79 88 79 / 40 60 60 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
202 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cut-off low between Hispaniola and Bahamas is forecast to move
across Cuba during the weekend, as a high pressure builds over
the region. Another low pressure will move over the region from
the northeast by upcoming week. At mid levels, a high pressure
ridge will continues to the north of the region. A tropical wave
will continue to affect the local area through Saturday. Another
tropical wave is expected to reach the region late Monday or
Saturday. An area of Saharan Dust Particle was observed between
each waves. This dry air mass is expected to move over the region
between Sunday and Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure
will continue over the Atlantic Ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The combination between a TUTT low and the leading edge of a
tropical wave produced cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms
across the local islands today. For this afternoon, the potential
for showers and thunderstorms continues across the islands.
Therefore, brief periods of gusty winds, heavy downpours and
frequent lightning can be expected from time to time. The CWA
will continue under the influences of a fast moving tropical wave
through Saturday, followed by a gradual drying trend between
Sunday and Monday. However expect some shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly across the interior and western sections of Puerto
Rico each day. But no significant rainfall amounts is expected at
this time. High concentration of saharan dust particles are
forecast for these days, Sunday and Monday, before the arrival of
another easterly wave by late Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cloudiness will remain across the local region this
afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be spreading
across the interior and western sections of PR through at least01/22z
...with periods of MVFR conditions expected mainly TJBQ/TJMZ. VCSH
expected elsewhere. Some thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. East
winds at 10-15kt with higher gusts near SHRA and TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas between 10 and 20 knots with higher gusts
in and near shower and thunderstorm activity. Rough and choppy
seas are expected through the weekend and into the early part of
the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 90 / 40 50 30 20
STT 79 88 79 90 / 60 60 20 10

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
526 AM AST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave will exit the local area Today. Saharan
dust and drier conditions expected Sun-Mon. Next tropical wave
enters the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday. Upper ridge builds just
north and over the area thru Monday. By Tuesday, TUTT low is
forecast to develop and meander just to the northeast of the
forecast area through much of next week. Broad surface high
pressure will continue across the eastern Atlantic, generating
moderate to fresh trade winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tropical wave generated scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the waters and coastal areas of the
U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern PR during the overnight hours.
Rainfall ranged between 0.25-0.50 inches of rain with the heaviest
showers. For Today, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected mainly across the interior and western
sections of PR. Tropical wave will exit the local area tonight.
Saharan dust is trailing the wave and drier conditions with
limited afternoon shower development is expected thru at least
Monday. On Tuesday, a strong tropical wave is forecast to enter
the eastern Caribbean but is expected to move mainly south of the
islands. However, TUTT low developing just northeast of the area
could interact with the wave and enhance showers and
thunderstorms across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Tropical wave will move across the flying area
today...resulting in SHRA and TSRA. SHRA activity expected across
eastern PR as well as the USVI and local waters in the morning.
Then...SHRA/TSRA expected across the interior and western sections
of PR after 02/16Z...with periods of MVFR conds for TJBQ/TJMZ are
possible at times. East winds at 10-20 kt with higher gusts near
SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...Hazardous marine conditions with choppy seas up to 7
feet are expected across portions of the offshore Atlantic waters
and Anegada Passage. Elsewhere, small craft operators should
continue to exercise caution due to seas up to 6 feet and east
winds up to 20 knots. As tropical wave continues to move west
just south of the islands isolated thunderstorms are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 40 10 0 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 50 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/749236130365661184

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
153 PM AST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave is over the local area, causing showers
and thunderstorms. Conditions expected to improve tonight as the
tropical wave moves away. Moderate to fresh winds are causing
choppy seas across the local waters. Another tropical wave
expected late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Numerous showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms affected the local area today as a tropical wave
passes through. Some of the thunderstorms had frequent lightning
and brief heavy rain. Although most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity was over the local waters, portions of Saint
Croix and eastern PR were affected with rainfall totals of over
one inch across those areas. The maximum estimated amount of
rainfall was observed over the municipality of Naguabo where over
2 inches of rain are estimated by radar. As of this writing,
eastern PR received more rain than western PR and Saint Croix
received more rain than the northern USVI. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue over the local waters and
gradually become more numerous across western PR.

Drier air is moving in and it can be seen on satellite over the
Leeward islands. It is expected for the drier air to move into the
local area by tonight, which will cause a gradual improvement on
the local weather. So we expect Sunday and Monday to have mostly
fair weather with isolated to scattered brief showers, isolated
brief thunderstorms on Monday, but it may be a bit hazy as Saharan
dust is expected to move in on Sunday.

Another tropical wave is expected to move in late Monday into
Tuesday. This tropical wave is carrying some good moisture and
satellite imagery is showing decent convection. This means that
another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
as the tropical wave passes. From Wednesday through the end of the
week, drier air moves in once again. In addition, an upper low
moves to the north of the local islands which will position the
local islands in the subsident side of the upper low, so any
convection will probably be locally induced, particularly on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...The tropical wave will continua to move across the
flying area today, resulting in SHRA and TSRA. SHRA/TSRA expected
across the interior and western sections of PR after 02/16Z, with
periods of MVFR conds for TJBQ/TJMZ possible at times. SHRA/TSRA
activity is expected to diminish after 02/22z leaving just a few
brief -RA mainly across TJSJ/TJPS/TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX. East winds
at 10-20 kt with higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA, then calm to light
and variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy seas expected through the rest of the weekend as
the local moderate to fresh winds cause seas up to 7 feet across
the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada passage. The rest of
the local waters could have winds up to 20 knots and seas up to 6
feet, so small craft operators should exercise caution.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 10 0 30 30
STT 81 89 80 90 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
522 AM AST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level dry air with Saharan dust is expected to
continue through at least Monday. Next tropical wave enters the
eastern Caribbean by early Tuesday. Upper ridge continues over the
Atlantic just north and over the area through at least late
Monday. By early Tuesday, TUTT low is forecast to develop and
meander just to the northeast-north of the forecast area through
Friday. Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
eastern Atlantic, generating moderate to fresh trade winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather prevailed during the overnight hours
across the islands. Only light quick passing showers were noted
over the waters. For Today and tomorrow, fair weather conditions
should continue as drier air aloft and suspended Saharan dust are
expected to suppress any shower development over the islands.
Hazy conditions expected. However, streamers could develop off the
islands in the afternoon hours and limited shower development is
expected over western PR. At this moment, no significant rainfall
is expected across the forecast area through at least late Monday
night into Tuesday with the next passage of a tropical wave.

From Wednesday through the end of the week, drier air moves in
once again with suspended Saharan dust creating hazy skies and
fair weather conditions returning once again. An upper low is
forecast to slowly move west just to the north of the local
islands and position north of the Hispaniola by Friday while an
upper ridge establishes aloft. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds expected to bring trade wind showers.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites
through the forecast period. Little or no shower activity is
expected across the flying area today...except over West PR where
isolated SHRA still possible between 18Z-21Z. Saharan dust particles
across the local area may reduce visibilities somewhat...however VIS
will remain P6SM. E winds 15-25 kts will prevail below FL250.

&&

.MARINE... Small crafts should exercise caution in most waters
for seas up to 6 ft and winds up to 20 knots. As tropical wave
enters the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday...winds and seas are
expected to increase and seas should reach small craft advisory
criteria by Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 78 / 0 30 30 50
STT 89 80 89 79 / 10 30 30 50

[Gustywind]

Here we are... with the first twave with a low attached with it

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N45W to 17N43W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ [b]with a 1014 mb low
centered along the wave axis near 11N. The surface low coincides
with 700 mb troughing between 42W-50W and 850 mb relative
vorticity focused near the low. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-18N between 42W-51W.
[/b]

[Gustywind]

Hi Luis Glad to see again after a lull. By the way, could you add this precious link about numerous webcams in St Barth: http://chynehome.com/meteo/index.php?page=webcams . Thanks. Your friend Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
135 PM AST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge aloft will slowly erode as an upper level trough
now located across the tropical Atlantic shifts westward, and
relocates north of the forecast area. This feature is expected to
hold north of the area much of this week. Surface high pressure
will continue to prevail across the north central Atlantic during
the next several days. A tropical wave is expected to move across
the local islands Tuesday and into early Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies were observed today across the
forecast area with a few isolated showers detected across the
coastal waters. Temperatures across coastal areas were in the
upper 80s and the wind was easterly at 15-20 mph.

A generally fair and mainly stable weather pattern will continue
to prevail through Monday evening under ridge pattern and limited
low level moisture. Local weather regime will change late Monday
and into Tuesday as a tropical wave moves across the local islands.

The approaching tropical wave is now located near 46W, and is
forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean Monday evening. This feature
combined with the proximity of an upper level trough north of the
local islands will result in squally weather conditions across the
USVI and E PR early Tuesday morning, spreading across W PR by the
late morning hours. Although, showers and thunderstorms across W
PR could be suppressed by cloud cover. At this time...the highest
rainfall amounts are expected across the USVI and E PR Tuesday
afternoon - Tuesday evening.

Weather conditions are expected to improve Wednesday morning, but
locally induced showers and thunderstorms still expected across W
PR as the result of the lingering moisture. A drier air mass will
encompass the area Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to continue at all TAF sites
through the forecast period. SHRA are possible across TJBQ/JMZ
between 18Z- 21Z. Visibilities are expected to continue P6SM but
the Saharan dust particles may reduce the local visibilities. E
winds at 10-20 knots with higher gusts will prevail, after 03/22z
winds will decrease at 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...A tropical wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean
on Monday evening with gusty winds and rough seas ahead of it and
increasing through Tuesday. Seas expected to increase to 7 feet.
Small Craft Advisories will be in effect.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 87 / 10 10 50 50
STT 80 90 80 86 / 20 20 50 50