Texas Summer 2016

[Ntxw]

Since it's so boring around here with summer never changing, lets take a look at some drastic changes going on with SSTs.

One big obvious thing is the equatorial Pacific. El Nino to trying La Nina. I say trying because the winds have not worked out for this Nina and it is crawling. 1998, and 2010 were already marching toward moderate (-1C or more) by now while this one is still straggling neutral. This bodes well for keeping it weak, weak first year Nina's (weak Nina's in general favor cold for winter).



Another thing to take notice is the warming south of the Aleutians. Water here was ice cold no more than 30-60 days ago. This has kept the EPO predominantly positive the past 6-10 months. However the tide has changed. What was cold is now a building WARM pool. Warm pool in the north Pacific?! Haven't we seen that before? *cough* 2013 *cough*. It has to migrate east though slowly. A weak Nina would likely allow this and we'll be in business with -EPO. Something like this occurred in 1983. We will not see a repeat of last winter. Will it be cold? Who knows but if it is warm,it will go about it another way

Compare to just a few months ago

[1900hurricane]

Man, that ENSO/PDO combination was a thing of beauty. Sad to see it go.

[Ntxw]

In other news we are entering the solar minimum. This one will be the quietest yet (2008-2010 one was the quietest in a long time at the time). This will last through 2020 or so. 9 spotless days in a row



Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 9 days
2016 total: 13 days (7%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 02 Jul 2016

[TheProfessor]

Finally got some rain here, it was nice to here Thunder.

[TheProfessor]

intense storm occuring right now. Edit: Some of these Lightning strikes are insanely close, probably within a mile from me.

[Ntxw]

It has been a noisy early morning at DFW. A couple of rounds of rain has been delightful. Thunder and sheets of rain.

[Brent]

Lot of noise but very little rain here in the NE metro.

[Kalrany]

Lot of noise but very little rain here in the NE metro.

Apparently the fourth of July parade there is on a rain delay. Hubby is waiting it out with the rest of the army band....

[Ralph's Weather]

Hopefully I can pick up at least a little bit of accumulating rain out of this.

[KatDaddy]

A gust of 55MPH recorded on a neighborhood weather station in Roanoke early this morning. The potential exists for another round later today for NTX.

[Ntxw]

DFW picked up nearly 2 inches of rain overnight. That's almost July's entire monthly average.

[gpsnowman]

Still upper 80's according to my phone. Quite comfortable for the July 4 holiday late afternoon. Too bad it can't last. Happy 4th everyone.

[Tireman4]

I hate Summer. Let me say it again. I hate Summer. 97 degrees. Dewpoint 73 degrees. Heat Index 105. We are going to a 4th of July Celebration at 6 pm. Only reason I going is for my son. When is Fall getting here?

[Ntxw]

North Texas has faired better. Forecasts are not going to hit and this will be a cooler than normal July 4th for us. We may not hit 100 this week though it could come close. Still shows the ridging isn't as dominate as it could be.

[Brent]

Storm just popped up overhead out of nowhere... I've been listening to fireworks and then it started sounding like thunder... probably gonna rain more than it did this morning.

[TheProfessor]

Another amazing Lightning show here tonight.

[Ntxw]

Officially 3.2" of rain fell at DFW yesterday making it the wettest July 4th on record, well ahead of second place. Also making this one of the wettest July's in a long time. There is also a cluster of thunderstorms to the NW moving ESE this morning. If it holds together could add to that total.

Still hot, but all this activity has kept 100 in check which still officially has not hit.

[gpsnowman]

The next round is about to enter Tarrant County. It has held together all morning.

[Portastorm]

Officially 3.2" of rain fell at DFW yesterday making it the wettest July 4th on record, well ahead of second place. Also making this one of the wettest July's in a long time. There is also a cluster of thunderstorms to the NW moving ESE this morning. If it holds together could add to that total.

Still hot, but all this activity has kept 100 in check which still officially has not hit.

Hope y'all are enjoying it. Here in the southern half of the state we have yet another consecutive day of heat advisories. Frying like bacon down here. Ground is already cracked and grass "crinkle-ly." Thankfully the lakes are full though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great post Ntx. I got a little excited on your warm pool talk. We had great winters between 2008 - Feb 2011 which i believe were soft Nina years, and of course the warm pool of 2013 was a winter we would never forget. That combo would be nice. Will keep an eye on that now.

Also, the sunspot activity or lack thereof is something i believe we talked about in 2009 on the boards. Very interesting. JB recently made a post about it and it with his chart of the last decade, it correlated well with a cold Texas winter (low amount of sunspots.) Of course, so many other factors involved but definitely deserves some attention.