Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[stormwise]

EPAC basin was cooking up storms on this graphic, and the ATL was cooking up more. Any increase of TD easterly waves may lite this basin up.

[Hammy]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=usus&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=396&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Posting here as it's more of a possible indicator rather than correctly showing individual storms--CFS is showing 3-4 systems threatening/hitting the eastern US in August as well as continuing to show the one in late July, so we could end up with an off-balance season if this plays out, with more activity (at least in the western half of the basin) occuring in the first half of the season.

[Ptarmigan]

The Atlantic setup right now almost reminds me of 1998 at this point--we had continuing troughs along the EC/northern Gulf, and a few strong waves in June (which actually developed in this case) but not much east of the Caribbean until mid-July. Wouldn't surprise me given the setup to not see any more storms form until the latter third of July.

Interestingly 1998 was also a transitioning El Nino-La Nina year.

I have noticed when El Nino is fading, the West Pacific is less active like in 1977 and 1983. One difference is late 1977 went back to weak El Nino and also all the basins were less active in 1977. In 1983, East Pacific was very active.

[gatorcane]

Looking at this MJO forecast graphic, it appears the Atlantic could see a more favorable MJO as we head deeper into July while the WPAC and EPAC, where activity currently focused with favorable MJO pulses, may quiet down especially towards the end of July as more subsidence takes over.

[Ptarmigan]

Never mind, I found the graphic, but anyways, shear is right around normal for this time of year, and is lower than average in the GOM, I would not give up on this season at all, there is no reason to, just because our last storm was more than a week ago

That level of instability is higher that I have seen in the past few years.

[FireRat]

And we know how 1998 turned out to be folks.
That is one heck of an analog year so far, we might see a very eventful year if this season blows up in August - September like that year, and let's not forget the Caribbean late season as well if indeed things remain 1998-ish by Oct-Nov.

[Hammy]

Looking at this MJO forecast graphic, it appears the Atlantic could see a more favorable MJO as we head deeper into July while the WPAC and EPAC, where activity currently focused with favorable MJO pulses, may quiet down especially towards the end of July as more subsidence takes over.

After seeing this graph and thinking about it, there were quite a few years over time that had a fairly quiet first half of August but picked up later (1996/98/99, most of 2002 aside from beginning and end, 2003/05/06, 2008/10) were these related to the MJO cycles?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looking at this MJO forecast graphic, it appears the Atlantic could see a more favorable MJO as we head deeper into July while the WPAC and EPAC, where activity currently focused with favorable MJO pulses, may quiet down especially towards the end of July as more subsidence takes over.

After seeing this graph and thinking about it, there were quite a few years over time that had a fairly quiet first half of August but picked up later (1996/98/99, most of 2002 aside from beginning and end, 2003/05/06, 2008/10) were these related to the MJO cycles?

Possibly quiet into mid August. Could my prediction of only an additional 6/2/1 be right? Hmmm. MJO looks to turn unfavorable heading into August. Quiet seasons are good for coastal communities.

[WPBWeather]

Looking at this MJO forecast graphic, it appears the Atlantic could see a more favorable MJO as we head deeper into July while the WPAC and EPAC, where activity currently focused with favorable MJO pulses, may quiet down especially towards the end of July as more subsidence takes over.

After seeing this graph and thinking about it, there were quite a few years over time that had a fairly quiet first half of August but picked up later (1996/98/99, most of 2002 aside from beginning and end, 2003/05/06, 2008/10) were these related to the MJO cycles?

Quiet seasons are good for coastal communities.

That part I agree with.

[tarheelprogrammer]

After seeing this graph and thinking about it, there were quite a few years over time that had a fairly quiet first half of August but picked up later (1996/98/99, most of 2002 aside from beginning and end, 2003/05/06, 2008/10) were these related to the MJO cycles?

Quiet seasons are good for coastal communities.

That part I agree with.

We have found common ground lol. I do respect you guys and your opinions I just have my own as well.

[ninel conde]

By mid august alot of other factors will be getting more negative. 6/2/1 might be way too high.

I expect pressures to continue to rise over the atlantic tropics and a huge flood of bone dry dust in aug/sept. eastpac looks super favorable in aug/sept which will increase shear even more in the atlantic. That low in se canada is the most multi-year long persistent feature i have ever seen. Winter-like pattern will become firmly established in the heart of cane season.
a- i expect another early shutdown to the season
b-no major US landfall
c-very unlikely to see a hurricane landfall
d-bone dry california winter
e-JB's high impact atlantic season prediction isnt going to pan out.

[xcool22]

By mid august alot of other factors will be getting more negative. 6/2/1 might be way too high.

I expect pressures to continue to rise over the atlantic tropics and a huge flood of bone dry dust in aug/sept. eastpac looks super favorable in aug/sept which will increase shear even more in the atlantic. That low in se canada is the most multi-year long persistent feature i have ever seen. Winter-like pattern will become firmly established in the heart of cane season.
a- i expect another early shutdown to the season
b-no major US landfall
c-very unlikely to see a hurricane landfall
d-bone dry california winter
e-JB's high impact atlantic season prediction isnt going to pan out.

You May Be Right

[Ntxw]

Personally I think the Atlantic will end up with a near normal season, more active than the past 3. The La Nina isn't developing as quickly as i would think for a hyper active season and preconditioning isn't great. However conditions are not as bad as it has been the past several years. We just have to wait for good waves to hit the open ocean first. As for landfall not even going to go there, it's all about luck and timing.

[ninel conde]

By mid august alot of other factors will be getting more negative. 6/2/1 might be way too high.

I expect pressures to continue to rise over the atlantic tropics and a huge flood of bone dry dust in aug/sept. eastpac looks super favorable in aug/sept which will increase shear even more in the atlantic. That low in se canada is the most multi-year long persistent feature i have ever seen. Winter-like pattern will become firmly established in the heart of cane season.
a- i expect another early shutdown to the season
b-no major US landfall
c-very unlikely to see a hurricane landfall
d-bone dry california winter
e-JB's high impact atlantic season prediction isnt going to pan out.

You May Be Right

I was wrong in my preseason forecast of 14/8/4. 8 hurricanes and 4 majors seems ridiculous now. FOR Awhile it appeared the heavy early spring rains in texas might mean an end to the 11 year wnw flow but it didnt matter. That se canada low is the most amazing weather feature i have ever seen.

[ninel conde]

Personally I think the Atlantic will end up with a near normal season, more active than the past 3. The La Nina isn't developing as quickly as i would think for a hyper active season and preconditioning isn't great. However conditions are not as bad as it has been the past several years. We just have to wait for good waves to hit the open ocean first. As for landfall not even going to go there, it's all about luck and timing.

Good point about la nina. I personally think aug/sept will see very few strong waves over the ocean.

[TheStormExpert]

Well according to ninel the season is officially over, no more storms!

Seriously though, it may not be an active season like some were expecting or hoping for, but BE WARNED! All it takes is one bad storm in the wrong place at the wrong time to change some or many peoples thoughts and views on the season.

Last year that one storm was "Joaquin" enough said!

In 2014 it was "Gonzalo" though not as bad as it could have been to earn retirement.

Hope everyone is having a Happy July 4th!

[Hammy]

I personally think it may still be an active season, but going back to 1998 again, I think the activity will come in spurts, rather than being continuously active--there was one in late July, four in the last third of August, only one in the first half of September, and then another five in the second half. But large quiet streaks--we went 25 days of July with nothing, the first 18 days of August with nothing, and only one tropical storm in the first half of September.

[SFLcane]

AGAIN promets such as wxman57 says the storms are coming so I'll side with that. Ninel if today were August 25 then I might consider buying into your season cancel posts. It's been so long since we in the Atlantic have experienced a " normal season " we're the gulf and Caribbean are favorable. Numbers aren't inportant

[WPBWeather]

Well according to ninel the season is officially over, no more storms!

Seriously though, it may not be an active season like some were expecting or hoping for, but BE WARNED! All it takes is one bad storm in the wrong place at the wrong time to change some or many peoples thoughts and views on the season.

Last year that one storm was "Joaquin" enough said!

In 2014 it was "Gonzalo" though not as bad as it could have been to earn retirement.

Hope everyone is having a Happy July 4th!

Ninel really has no sound science to back his/her positions. Just selected cherry picked one off data. Don't know if he/she is a troll just trying to throw bombs out, but its been happening for far longer than you've been posting here.

[stormwise]

AGAIN promets such as wxman57 says the storms are coming so I'll side with that. Ninel if today were August 25 then I might consider buying into your season cancel posts. It's been so long since we in the Atlantic have experienced a " normal season " we're the gulf and Caribbean are favorable. Numbers aren't inportant

One of the most intelligent and candid points to be made in this thread