ninel conde wrote:I would say last season did shutdown early. Nothing formed in Oct and 1 formed in nov.
You seem to be twisting things to fit your ever-changing definition of how things are inactive in some way or another whey they aren't. I wouldn't call having the strongest storm in five years, and the strongest October storm since 1998, to be an early shutdown, especially when combined with the first November hurricane since 2009. October/November of 2015 (and 2014 for that matter) had both higher ACE and more hurricanes than September, so in both years the tail end of the season proved to be busier than the peak. Last year you claimed the MDR would be dead, that there were no 'true' hurricanes because they were all forming north of 23-25N (this seems to be changing as well depending on how convenient it is.) Danny formed then you claimed it didn't count because it was east of 60, then Joaquin formed and you claimed it didn't count because it didn't make landfall in the U.S. These posts are getting quite tiring, and are cluttering the forum and essentially blocking any meaningful discussion. There is also absolutely nothing backing your "permanent trof" points, given that the trough has not been permanent, nor is it anything unusual for the first two months of the season (see my post about 1998/2004/2008.) There were clear mitigating factors in 2013, being much cooler and wetter weather along the entire eastern half of the US (the southeast is now in drought/record heat, similar to previous active years of 1998, 2005, and 2010), as well as significantly below normal instability (non-existent this year, it's higher than the last three years), significantly above normal pressures (again this year is lower than the last three years), and much below normal moisture content (and yet again this year is above the last three years. 2014-15 were also expected to be quiet, so you can't use those for your back-patting. And rather than trying to explain why you think the (non-existent) east coast trough (it's more of a northeastern linear pattern overtop of high pressure) will remain "permanent" this year you are simply repeating your one-line posts that you disagree with everybody else posting, rather than offering some sort of meaningful discussion.
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