EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical
Here comes another one.
EP, 96, 2016070418, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1033W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070500, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1040W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070506, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1047W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070512, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1053W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070518, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1060W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
EP, 96, 2016070418, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1033W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070500, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1040W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070506, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1047W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070512, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1053W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070518, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1060W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
12z GFS once again has a Hawaii threat on long range. There are problems on the Tropical Tidbits site so I can't post it.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
BS flag raised on the MU track
It is not handling Blas properly, so the flow may be totally different for this one
It is not handling Blas properly, so the flow may be totally different for this one
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for continued gradual development, and this system is
likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week
while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for continued gradual development, and this system is
likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week
while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Yellow Evan wrote:[img]http://i.imgur.com/QhxzxHw.png[/ig]
12z GFS near Hawaii
That's the strongest it's ever been.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
furthermore, this is going to track over the cold wake of Blas
The MU is nuts
The MU is nuts
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962016 07/05/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 59 67 73 77 82
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 59 67 73 77 82
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 31 35 43 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 4 5 5 4 2 3 4 9 15 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 0 -6 -4 -3
SHEAR DIR 350 340 350 3 355 340 332 294 257 60 52 31 34
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 160 156 151 154 152 151 151 147 151
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 71 70 72 74 74 75 74 77 80 80 84 87 85
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 20
850 MB ENV VOR -43 -42 -39 -45 -35 -38 -38 -26 -16 -8 11 35 35
200 MB DIV 45 53 60 29 20 7 4 27 59 94 83 118 95
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 799 820 841 870 886 1009 1176 1304 1460 1626 1782 1860 1773
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.4 11.7 10.8 9.7 9.0 9.8
LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 107.7 108.6 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.5 117.2 118.6 119.5 119.7 119.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 11 9 10 9 8 5 1 7
HEAT CONTENT 39 36 30 26 25 25 23 26 37 43 45 44 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 39. 47. 53. 57. 62.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 106.0
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 07/05/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.96 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.8% 54.7% 50.6% 23.7% 14.5% 53.9% 57.9%
Bayesian: 0.8% 6.6% 4.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 7.3%
Consensus: 3.5% 20.5% 18.5% 8.1% 4.9% 18.6% 21.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 07/05/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962016 07/05/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 59 67 73 77 82
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 59 67 73 77 82
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 31 35 43 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 4 5 5 4 2 3 4 9 15 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 0 -6 -4 -3
SHEAR DIR 350 340 350 3 355 340 332 294 257 60 52 31 34
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 160 156 151 154 152 151 151 147 151
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 71 70 72 74 74 75 74 77 80 80 84 87 85
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 20
850 MB ENV VOR -43 -42 -39 -45 -35 -38 -38 -26 -16 -8 11 35 35
200 MB DIV 45 53 60 29 20 7 4 27 59 94 83 118 95
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 799 820 841 870 886 1009 1176 1304 1460 1626 1782 1860 1773
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.4 11.7 10.8 9.7 9.0 9.8
LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 107.7 108.6 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.5 117.2 118.6 119.5 119.7 119.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 11 9 10 9 8 5 1 7
HEAT CONTENT 39 36 30 26 25 25 23 26 37 43 45 44 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 39. 47. 53. 57. 62.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 106.0
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 07/05/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.96 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.8% 54.7% 50.6% 23.7% 14.5% 53.9% 57.9%
Bayesian: 0.8% 6.6% 4.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 7.3%
Consensus: 3.5% 20.5% 18.5% 8.1% 4.9% 18.6% 21.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 07/05/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Here is EC at 240 hours.Blas to the south of Hawaii,future Celia to the NE and then is another behind.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Up to 40%-90%.
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. The circulation of the low has become
better defined today, and continued development is expected. This
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few
days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. The circulation of the low has become
better defined today, and continued development is expected. This
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few
days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
It's amazing that since 2014, the models have been showing Hawaii threat.. and to think that there is a budding La Nina this year.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
dexterlabio wrote:It's amazing that since 2014, the models have been showing Hawaii threat.. and to think that there is a budding La Nina this year.
During +PDO years even in La Nina, you can see long tracking storm that near Hawaii over the Pacific. Happened in 1984, 1985, and 1989 too.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
I need to remind you this is tracking over the cold wake of a cat 4/5 hurricane when the models are bombing this out
The models are UNCOUPLED. They do not see the cold wake. Thus, the solutions of this one being as strong as Blas are unrealistic
The models are UNCOUPLED. They do not see the cold wake. Thus, the solutions of this one being as strong as Blas are unrealistic
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Alyono wrote:I need to remind you this is tracking over the cold wake of a cat 4/5 hurricane when the models are bombing this out
The models are UNCOUPLED. They do not see the cold wake. Thus, the solutions of this one being as strong as Blas are unrealistic
It's just a wait and see at this time. Maybe they'll notice this as the timeframe creeps into the medium range.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, are showing some signs of organization. Continued
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, are showing some signs of organization. Continued
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962016 07/06/16 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 63 72 81 87 94 99 100
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 63 72 81 87 94 99 100
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 38 43 50 58 70 83 99 109
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 2 0 1 1 3 3 6 10 10 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -2
SHEAR DIR 32 62 76 115 101 351 76 120 81 94 69 66 26
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 157 156 152 151 152 151 149 151 154 154
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.8 -52.6 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 76 77 77 80 79 82 83 82 78 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 16 20 24 27
850 MB ENV VOR -33 -27 -33 -35 -38 -25 -13 -4 4 29 45 52 55
200 MB DIV 27 41 36 29 17 29 30 71 83 107 120 119 130
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3
LAND (KM) 896 932 959 1016 1064 1172 1274 1343 1464 1602 1701 1737 1752
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.3 11.9 11.4 11.1 11.5 12.2
LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.2 110.0 110.9 111.7 113.2 114.6 116.1 117.6 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 6 5 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 25 27 28 28 26 24 22 26 38 39 36 35 33
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 38. 47. 56. 62. 69. 74. 75.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 108.3
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 07/06/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 5.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 5.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 -0.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 40.1% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 11.4% 73.9% 53.6% 42.9% 30.4% 56.1% 64.3%
Bayesian: 0.6% 13.7% 4.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2.6% 3.7%
Consensus: 4.0% 42.5% 27.7% 14.7% 10.2% 19.6% 22.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 07/06/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
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