WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

[Cunxi Huang]

Pinhole eye...Even though it's an OW shows on BD.

[mrbagyo]

Nothing important for me to say or analyze at the moment, I'm just taking in the early morning visible imagery.

My Gawd! What a very intense and compact storm. I cant imagine the pressure gradient present in that system.

130 knots seems extremely conservative, that must be at least 145 knots. Can't wait for the Japanese recon.

[stormwise]

From what i understand Japanese recon aircraft wont be punching into the eyewalls of violent typhoons.

[1900hurricane]

Pinhole eye...Even though it's an OW shows on BD.

Eye temp has actually been warm medium grey per ADT readout. Himawari-8's spatial resolution is certainly helping catch it in this case.

[StormChaser75]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/750489805147009026

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   224000 UTC
      Lat :   18:34:03 N     Lon :  130:24:17 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                7.1 / 915.8mb/143.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                7.1     7.4     7.4

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

 Center Temp : +18.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

 Scene Type : EYE

[1900hurricane]

What a microwave pass!

[1900hurricane]

JMA went with 110 kt at 00Z, which is between a CI of 7.0 and 7.5 for them, and by their criteria, classifies Nepartak as a Violent Typhoon.

TY 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 6 July 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 6 July>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N18°40' (18.7°)
E130°10' (130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°10' (20.2°)
E127°05' (127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 7 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21°25' (21.4°)
E124°25' (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°25' (23.4°)
E120°25' (120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25' (25.4°)
E118°00' (118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

[mrbagyo]

^ that microwave image just confirms that this is no annular, contrary to what JTWC is saying. Hahaha

[NotoSans]

JTWC goes with 140 knots at 00Z, making it the first category 5 of the WPAC season.
02W NEPARTAK 160706 0000 18.7N 130.1E WPAC 140 918

Personally I would give with 155 knots at 00Z. Looks like a solid T7.5/7.5 to me.

[euro6208]

This looks like anywhere from 145 to 160 knots. Perfect eye with very intense convection surrounding it and looks to have cooled even more.

[gatorcane]

Wow

[euro6208]

JTWC goes with 140 knots at 00Z, making it the first category 5 of the WPAC season.
02W NEPARTAK 160706 0000 18.7N 130.1E WPAC 140 918

Personally I would give with 155 knots at 00Z. Looks like a solid T7.5/7.5 to me.

Agreed. JTWC is just playing catchup at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 060038

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 06/0020Z

C. 18.73N

D. 130.02E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS A 6.0, PT YIELDS A 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/1854Z  18.05N  131.80E  SSMS



[stormwise]

Yeah has been a violent TY for quite awhile the advisory had to come sooner or later.

Just your run of the mill cat5 from WPAC.

[StormChaser75]

140KTS!(160MPH!) in the new advisory, We now have our First cat 5 in the West Pacific this year !

[euro6208]

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 060038

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 06/0020Z

C. 18.73N

D. 130.02E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS A 6.0, PT YIELDS A 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/1854Z  18.05N  131.80E  SSMS



150 to 155 knots next warning?

[NotoSans]

Thanks to himawari satellite the pinhole eye is better resolved. Eye temperature is now above 20C.

2016JUL06 010000 7.3 909.5 149.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 20.50 -78.83 EYE 12 IR 57.4 18.88 -129.82 COMBO HIM-8 25.5